<p>有哥們說合約還在漲，合約那是組裝廠庫(kù)存在升值，不賣就是哐哐賺</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-6fffde797c94ba96.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>看了一下江波龍的存貨，數(shù)據(jù)來源是江波龍:公司2025年度向特定對(duì)象發(fā)行A股股票募集說明書(修訂稿)2026-02-11，25年末預(yù)計(jì)108億存貨。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-5eac1fb41edab949.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>江波龍面向消費(fèi)級(jí)的產(chǎn)品是lexar，F(xiàn)ORESEE大多在一體機(jī)和終端機(jī)上看到。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-938b3c9267d9501a.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-8d9f24b46cb3df2e.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>根據(jù)其發(fā)布的主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入，固態(tài)硬盤占24.93，移動(dòng)存儲(chǔ)占22.15，內(nèi)存條占9.52。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-4ee0f296eb9a007e.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>根據(jù)財(cái)聯(lián)社報(bào)道，從目前已披露報(bào)表看存儲(chǔ)模組廠幾乎全年利潤(rùn)都集中在第四季度，目前來看，仍在大幅備貨，保證供應(yīng)的同時(shí)也能進(jìn)一步吃到漲價(jià)紅利。</p><p>在業(yè)績(jī)之外，為了緊抓“超級(jí)周期”紅利，多家公司同步推進(jìn)了港股上市、產(chǎn)業(yè)并購(gòu)以及新一代存儲(chǔ)產(chǎn)品的研發(fā)和客戶導(dǎo)入。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-3be8bfa9e657a04b.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p>
<p>那么接下來就是正事了。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-4c696ffb1076b96c.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>模組廠和下級(jí)的代理商擁有著兩套邏輯。</p><p>根據(jù)江波龍報(bào)告中所描述，報(bào)告期公司毛利率最高是19.05%，當(dāng)然了第四季度數(shù)據(jù)暫時(shí)還沒發(fā)。那么上游漲價(jià)80%傳導(dǎo)到消費(fèi)者手里怎么能漲到500%。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-b68ec7a9e5775aff.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>那么現(xiàn)在的情況是合約繼續(xù)拉漲，江波龍手握百億存貨，隨著合約價(jià)上升，就算不做產(chǎn)品，靠著存貨也是哐哐漲。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-5b674f23cc435c0f.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>那么接下來就是代理商方面了，存貨多對(duì)代理商是好事嗎，如果市場(chǎng)火熱，跟之前顯卡那似的，買了就是哐哐賺錢，漲價(jià)也買不到卡的情況不同。</p><p>內(nèi)存這玩意不能直接創(chuàng)造價(jià)值，而內(nèi)存漲價(jià)連帶著主板銷量下降，主板銷量下降，連帶著其他要插上面的產(chǎn)品銷量下降。客戶謹(jǐn)慎采購(gòu)了，需求縮減，大量屯貨怕是存儲(chǔ)周期結(jié)束都賣不完。</p><p class="image-package"><img class="uploaded-img" src="https://upload-images.jianshu.io/upload_images/31088270-76926989355c3a15.png?imageMogr2/auto-orient/strip%7CimageView2/2/w/1240" width="auto" height="auto"/></p><p>隨著庫(kù)存周期拉長(zhǎng)，上游慢慢放貨，給到消費(fèi)者的壓力并不大，因?yàn)轳R上要五一了，旅游市場(chǎng)是時(shí)候吸收一波了。</p><p>
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