Day 1原文文本
【翻譯劃線段落】
Dollars will findbuyers hard to find in 2017
With theUSFederal Reserve raising interest rates, and President Mario Draghi of theEuropean Central Bankseemingly unabletoescape
his addiction to[A1]quantitative easing policy,manyinvestors are questioning who wants to buy the euro. The answer is simple. Thewhole world is eager to buy the euro. The problem in 2017 is more likely to befinding anyone who wants to buy the US dollar.
美國(guó)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備系統(tǒng)持續(xù)提高利率，歐洲中央銀行行長(zhǎng)馬里奧·德拉吉也似乎無(wú)法放棄擺脫對(duì)量化寬松貨幣政策的鐘愛(ài)，這引起許多投資者的議論：誰(shuí)還會(huì)去購(gòu)買歐元呢？答案很簡(jiǎn)單:全世界都熱切想要購(gòu)買歐元。2017年，誰(shuí)會(huì)想要購(gòu)買美元才更可能是個(gè)問(wèn)題。
TheMiddle Eastisa good example of[A2]a regionofavid euro buyers.Even with therecent rally in the oil price[A3],most Middle Easterncountries are expected torunsizeable fiscal deficits. The IMF expectsSaudi Arabiatorun a fiscal deficit of almost 10 per cent of GDP next year. To fund theirbudget deficits, the Gulf countries are selling central bank reserves and poolsof assets held by their sovereign wealth funds.
中東地區(qū)就是歐元的熱切買家中的一大代表熱衷投資歐元的絕佳例證。即便最近油價(jià)上漲回暖，大多數(shù)中東地區(qū)的國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)都存在巨額財(cái)政赤字。聯(lián)合國(guó)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(IMF)預(yù)估沙特阿拉伯明年的財(cái)政赤字將占其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的近10％。這個(gè)海灣國(guó)家正在出售央行外匯儲(chǔ)備和主權(quán)財(cái)富基金持有的大量資金資產(chǎn)池型主權(quán)財(cái)富基金來(lái)為預(yù)算赤字提供資金。
ImagineSaudi Arabiasells US Treasuries, and uses the dollars it receives to pay its civilservants. Then imagine that a Saudi Arabian civil servant takes their pay anduses the money to buy a BMW car in euros. What is happening?Saudi Arabiaisselling dollars and buying euros. It does not matter that there is an asset onone side of the transaction and a BMW on the other side of the transaction —the foreign exchange market implicationis the same whether it is Bunds or BMWs that are bought.
試想一下，沙特阿拉伯售出美國(guó)國(guó)債，并用得到的美元來(lái)支付公務(wù)員薪酬。然后一位公務(wù)員獲得薪酬后以歐元購(gòu)買一輛寶馬。這之中發(fā)生了什么事？沙特阿拉伯賣出美元，購(gòu)入了歐元。這筆交易的一端是資產(chǎn)，另一端是寶馬車，這并不造成任何影響——外匯市場(chǎng)在其中產(chǎn)生的作用不會(huì)因購(gòu)買的是奔馳還是寶馬而有任何改變。
If the Middle Eastbuys assets, they like their assets to be made inAmerica(central banks buy roughly twice as manyUSassets as other assets). If theMiddle East buys products and services, they like their products and servicesto be made in Europe (the Middle East buys twice as much from Europe as fromtheUS).Thus if theMiddle Eastis selling assets tobuy goods, it sells dollars to buy euros.
如果中東地區(qū)想要收購(gòu)他國(guó)資產(chǎn)，他們往往會(huì)選擇美國(guó)（央行收購(gòu)的美國(guó)資產(chǎn)約為其它資產(chǎn)的兩倍）。如果中東買家想要購(gòu)買商品或服務(wù)，他們往往會(huì)選擇歐洲（中東地區(qū)在歐洲購(gòu)買的商品和服務(wù)是在美國(guó)的兩倍），因此如果中東地區(qū)出售資產(chǎn)，購(gòu)入商品，便無(wú)異于賣出美元，購(gòu)入歐元。
Of coursethis does not just apply totheMiddle East. The world is eager to buy euros because theworld wants European products(in preference toUS products). The relativecurrent account balancesof the Euroarea and theUSalone tell us that.China,another economy inclined todivestitself of US assetsof late, buysmore euro area imports than US imports.The same is true ofthe APEC Asian economies as abloc.Africa’spreference forEuro area products incomparison to American isoverwhelming.Only Latin America exhibits any relative
desire tobuy “made inAmerica”.The rest of the worldclamoursforeuros to obtain goods and services from their preferred supplier.
1.divest:~ yourself of sth to
get rid of sth處理掉；丟棄:
?The company is divesting itself of some ofits assets.公司正在處理它的部份財(cái)產(chǎn)。
~ sb /
sth of sth to take sth away from sb / sth使解除；使擺脫:
?After her illness she was divested of much ofher responsibility.她生病后便給解除了許多責(zé)任。
2.bloc: a
group of countries that work closely together because they have similar
political interests (政治利益一致的)國(guó)家集團(tuán)
So why is the euronot stronger with all this enthusiastic buying of BMWs and other euro areagoods?
3.clamour: to demandsomething loudly
[clamour for]
The audiencecheered, clamoring for more.
[clamour to dosomething]
All his friends wereclamouring to know where he’d been.
to talk or shoutloudly:
Children clamoredexcitedly.
In 2016 theUSbasicallypleaded withthe rest of the world tolend it money. US interest rates are above those of the euro area (euro areainterest rates are negative).USbond yields are above those of the euro area (many euro area bond yields arenegative). USequitieshaveoutperformedthose of the euro area (byabout 15 per cent, and euro area equity performance is negative this year). TheUS basically did everything that it could to persuade investors to buy dollars— and at the end of all of that effort the euro still trades within 4 per centof where it traded against the dollar at the start of the year.
The challenge fortheUSis that it needs foreigners to buy dollars every day to stop the dollar fromfalling. In the first nine months of 2016, foreigners had to purchase $2.7bnevery day. That is more than the daily GDP of theNetherlands.Any day thatforeignerswere not inclined tobuy $2.7bn, thedollar would weaken. This is important — if foreigners decide that they want to“wait and see” what Donald Trump’s policies are like beforecommitting tobuying more dollars, thenthe dollar will fall. “Wait and see” is not good enough for theUS.
The question is notwho wants to buy euros — the whole world wants to buy euros because the wholeworld wants to buy euro area products. TheUShad to offer considerablefinancial incentives to persuade foreigners to buy dollars.
[A1]擺脫
[A2]絕佳例證
[A3]油價(jià)回暖
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