什么是動量？

說到動量，大家的第一反應(yīng)（尤其是工科男）基本就是高中物理課本里提到的動量。呃，課本是找不著了，維基中這樣描述：在經(jīng)典力學(xué)里，動量（momentum）是物體的質(zhì)量和速度的乘積，_公式：p=mv。

股票市場、匯率市場等其實都可以套用價格的動量法則，諾獎得主尤金·法瑪（Eugene F.Fama）提出三因子模型距今已有20多年了，學(xué)術(shù)界在此基礎(chǔ)上挖掘出更多的有效因子，動量因子當(dāng)屬第一。做交易當(dāng)然得嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)，近年也有一篇題為《[Demystifying Managed Futures]》的論文提供了很好的理論基礎(chǔ)。

昨日偶然看到一篇文章《Momentum Trading - A Price Action Trading Guide》，講述通過觀察K線來發(fā)現(xiàn)動量趨勢并進行交易，覺得不錯，現(xiàn)截取部分翻譯后分享給大家。

摘要

1. 動量可用于任何時間框架，大到上百個交易日（甚至更長），小到單個k線圖。

2. 物體的動量大小取決于質(zhì)量和速度兩要素，從單個K線圖來看，如果將質(zhì)量m比作K線圖，那么K線圖影線的長短就是質(zhì)量m的大?。煌瑯拥?，強動量的K線圖的數(shù)量多少可以看成是速度v的大小；影線越短、K線柱體越長、強動量K線越多則量能越大。

3. 通過查看高動量K線的多少來簡單初判趨勢。

4. 結(jié)合布林線、阻力線、支撐線的高動量價格突破來提高判斷價格走勢的概率。

5. 動量分析具有普適性。

內(nèi)容翻譯與解讀

What is momentum?

什么是動量？

> First of all, we need to understand what momentum actually means but this is straight forward.

> Momentum = Trend strength

> Momentum = Strong candlesticks

首先，我們需要理解動量的真正含義。動量可以是趨勢強度，也可以是強勢的K線圖（可大可?。?。

> So there are two ways of looking at momentum. The first one just looks at the overall trend strength and when price is in a trend, traders say that the momentum is bullish or bearish (in a downtrend). When we come to the micro level later, we will see that momentum also exists when we just look at individual candlesticks. A long candlestick without wicks (shadows) usually is considered a high momentum candlestick; candlestick with a small body and long wicks has no momentum.

因此, 動量有兩種方式：第一種只是看整體趨勢強度, 當(dāng)價格呈現(xiàn)趨勢時, 看漲或看跌。第二種進入微觀層面時，我們將看到動量也存在于單個K線圖里。 一個長柱體且沒有影線的K線通常被認(rèn)為具有高動量; 帶有短柱體和長影線的K線則意味著缺乏動量。

> Below are three examples:

> A trend with strong bullish momentum first but then the momentum ‘faded’ (became weaker).

> A price chart with no momentum. Price is just going up and down without any direction or strength.

> A market where price went from strong bullish momentum to strong bearish momentum. At the top, price suddenly turned with, so called, momentum candles.?

以下是三個例子（下圖）：

1. 一個強勁的看漲勢頭, 然后勢頭"消退"；

2. 沒有動量的價格波動，價格只是上上下下沒有任何方向和力量；

3. 價格從強勁的看漲勢頭轉(zhuǎn)向強勁的看跌勢頭。在頂部出現(xiàn)一個謂之為動量k線，價格自此突然轉(zhuǎn)向。

圖片引用見左下角水印

Following and understanding momentum

跟隨與理解動量

> First (1), we are in a strong uptrend where price trended close to the outer Bollinger Bands?.

首先，下圖① 價格沿著布林線外軌運動，處于一個強勁的上升趨勢。

> Then (2) price entered a regular consolidation after the first trend wave. This is a normal behavior during trends and price never broke the 20 period SMA.

然后，下圖② 價格在第一波趨勢后進入常規(guī)整理階段。趨勢和價格沒有突破20周期SMA中軌，這是一個正常的行為。

> At the top (3) price then reversed stronger. Here we then saw a strong sequence of 3 bearish candlesticks. This was the first time in a long time where price showed such strong bearish momentum. This should have caught your attention because something in the price dynamics had changed.

下圖③ 到達價格的最高點后出現(xiàn)強勢反轉(zhuǎn)。 在這里我們看到了一組3個強勁的看跌k線，這是長期以來首次出現(xiàn)如此強勁的下跌勢頭。 這應(yīng)引起注意, 因為價格態(tài)勢的某些方面已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變化。

> Once price broke the 20 SMA (4), even more selling entered and momentum showed that price is indeed now entering a downtrend.

下圖④ 一旦價格突破20周期SMA中軌, 隨著更多賣盤的涌入，種種跡象顯示價格正處于下降趨勢。

> Just by looking at how many bullish vs. bearish candles you can see and how it relates to the 20 SMA, you can gain SO many insights into a price chart and what is going on.

只要觀察有多少看漲和看跌k線, 以及它與20SMA中軌的關(guān)系, 你就可以在價格表中洞察到很多信息和正在發(fā)生什么。

Candle analysis – Follow-through momentum and micro-momentum

K線分析

> As I said above, just comparing how many bullish vs. bearish candlesticks you have and how strong they are, you can gain a deep understanding of price charts.

正如我上面所說的, 只要比較一下有多少看漲與看跌k線以及它們的強度, 你就可以對價格圖表有一個深刻的理解。

> Let’s take a final look at a different price chart and what we can make out of it by looking at price action alone.

讓我們最后看看另一個價格圖表, 我們可以單獨看價格變動來解決問題。（在實操中應(yīng)結(jié)合價格、交易量等多種指標(biāo)綜合判斷，這里作者只是運用價格變動簡單舉例。）

> First, it starts off with a strong uptrend; price is close to the outer Bollinger Bands? and there are no bearish candles.

首先, 價格處于一個強勁的上升趨勢，接近布林線外軌且沒有看跌k線。

> Then we see the first consolidation and the first time that there is more than one consecutive bearish bar. On the lower timeframes, this could have been traded nicely back to the 20 SMA.

然后我們看到了第一個價格整理，第一次出現(xiàn)多個連續(xù)的看跌K線。 在較低的時間框架內(nèi), 這個價格可能會處于20 SMA中軌以上。

> Price continues its rally afterwards but we never have more than one consecutive bearish bar until price spikes into the Bollinger Bands? and leaves the pinbar. Now we see multiple bearish candlesticks and the bulls are not able to fight back. Price even breaks the 20 SMA with a high momentum candle and then continues the downtrend further. You can see how the shift in momentum was very obvious at the top with the 2 bearish candles and the pinbar.

之后, 價格繼續(xù)上漲, 沒有一個連續(xù)的看跌K線, 直到一個較大幅度的下跌為止。 現(xiàn)在我們看到了多個看跌的K線, 多頭無力反擊。 一個高動量K線甚至跌破了20SMA中軌, 然后延續(xù)下降趨勢。 你可以在頂部通過看跌K線發(fā)現(xiàn)非常明顯的動量變化。

More usage examples: Breakout momentum

更多實用例子: 動量突破

> Momentum can not only be used for trend and reversal trading, but it can also help you find high probability breakouts.

動量不僅可以用于趨勢交易和反轉(zhuǎn)交易, 它也可以幫助你找到高成功率的突破。

> I like to draw support and resistance levels are high impact areas, especially after long and exhausted trends, and then wait for a high momentum break of such a level.

我喜歡畫支撐和阻力線，這是一個高效的區(qū)域, 特別是在長期疲軟的趨勢之后, 然后等待一個高動量來突破這樣一個水平。

> The screenshot below shows a recent trade of mine where the NZD/JPY was in a long range with a clear support level. Price rejected the level multiple times but once we had the high momentum breakout, it never looked back.

下面的截圖顯示了我最近的一個交易, 新元/ 日元 在長期范圍內(nèi)有一個明確的支撐水平。 價格多次近乎觸及這個水平, 但是一旦價格有了高動量的突破, 它就一去不復(fù)返。

> This also works nicely with trendlines and high momentum breaks at strong trendlines can be a great signal as well.

這也很好地適用于趨勢線，強趨勢線的高動量突破也是一個很重要的信號。

Right now: USD/CAD fading momentum

現(xiàn)在，讓我們看下美元 / 加元的衰落動量

> The screenshot shows the USD/CAD 4H chart which many traders are looking at. Price trended nicely higher but recently, the momentum got weaker and price ‘rounded off’.

截圖顯示了許多交易員正在使用的美元 / 加元 4H 圖表。 價格開始走高, 但最近,量能變得越來越弱, 價格越來越低。

> This can mean one of three signs:

> 1. The trend is losing strength and continues to trade sideways

> 2. The trend is losing strength and going to reverse

> 3. The trend is just pausing and then continues higher

這可能意味著三種跡象:這種趨勢正在失去能量，并繼續(xù)橫向交易；這種趨勢正在失去能量而且正在逆轉(zhuǎn)；這種趨勢只是暫停一會，然后繼續(xù)上升。

> Most people make the mistake in their trading that they don’t wait for the final momentum signal. If I am looking to sell the USD/CAD, I will wait until I can see a clear high momentum bearish bar or sequence that confirms price is actually going lower.

大多數(shù)人在交易中犯了錯誤, 他們沒有等待最后的動量信號。 如果我想出售美元 / 加元, 我會等到一個或多個清晰的高動量的看跌K線, 確認(rèn)價格實際上正在下降。

> Amateurs will try to forecast a move and then either buy or sell as long as price is still in this range; this is a low probability trade and predicting is not going to work.

小散會根據(jù)主觀判斷買進或賣出，但判斷準(zhǔn)確的概率很低, 預(yù)測是行不通的。

> As you can see, momentum analysis is a great way of looking at charts and it should be used by all traders, regardless of their style.

正如你所看到的, 動量分析是一個很好的觀察圖表的方式, 它應(yīng)該被廣泛的交易者所使用, 不管他們的風(fēng)格如何。

總結(jié)

動量分析具有很強的普適性，普通交易者通過價格動量再結(jié)合其他指標(biāo)工具即可提升交易成功的概率，簡直就是缺乏信息優(yōu)勢的小散跟隨趨勢操作的利器。

原文鏈接：[ Momentum Trading - A Price Action Trading Guide - Tradeciety Trading Academy ]

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