第二編 貨幣的價(jià)值
第十三章 貨幣政策
概要
Originally, citizens judged the success of monetary policy by the soundness of the coinage it maintained in circulation. In modern times monetary policy refers to government (or central bank) efforts to alter the purchasing power of money. The chief instrument through which the State carries out monetary policy is its strong influence on the kind of money used by the citizenry.
起初，公民們通過(guò)鑄幣在流通中被保持的健康性來(lái)判斷貨幣政策是否成功。在現(xiàn)代，貨幣政策是指政府（或中央銀行）改變貨幣購(gòu)買力的努力。國(guó)家實(shí)施貨幣政策的主要手段是對(duì)公民使用的貨幣種類施加強(qiáng)烈影響。
Inflationism is that monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money. Nai?ve inflationism believes that money constitutes wealth, and that creating more money will turn poor into rich. A second group of inflationists understands that printing more money will cause prices to rise, but endorses the policy because they want to help debtors or achieve some other goal. A third group of inflationists understands that the policy in general will wreak economic havoc, but they support it too because they believe some essential government programs sometimes must be paid for through an “inflation tax.” Economics can say, without making any value judgments, that inflationism is a very poor policy for achieving its stated objectives.
通貨膨脹主義是旨在增加貨幣數(shù)量的貨幣政策。天真的通貨膨脹主義者認(rèn)為貨幣構(gòu)成財(cái)富，創(chuàng)造更多的貨幣將使窮人變成富人。第二類通脹主義者明白，印更多的貨幣會(huì)導(dǎo)致物價(jià)上漲，但他們贊同這項(xiàng)政策，因?yàn)樗麄兿霂椭鷤鶆?wù)人或?qū)崿F(xiàn)其它目標(biāo)。第三類通脹主義者明白，總體而言這一政策將嚴(yán)重破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)，但他們也支持這一政策，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為某些必要的政府計(jì)劃有時(shí)必須通過(guò)“通脹稅”來(lái)支付。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)可以說(shuō)，即使不作任何價(jià)值判斷，通貨膨脹對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定目標(biāo)而言也是一個(gè)非常糟糕的政策。
Restrictionism or deflationism is policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money. It is unpopular for various reasons.
限制主義或通貨緊縮主義是旨在提高貨幣客觀交換價(jià)值的政策。由于種種原因，它并不受歡迎。
Because neither inflationism nor deflationism is capable of achieving its stated objectives, the only sensible monetary policy is one that aims at eliminating all government interference with the purchasing power of money. In practice, this means a rigid adherence to a commodity standard, which in modern times means either the gold or silver standard.
由于通貨膨脹主義和通貨緊縮主義都不能實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定目標(biāo)，唯一合理的貨幣政策是消除政府對(duì)貨幣購(gòu)買力的一切干預(yù)。在實(shí)踐中，這意味著對(duì)商品本位制的嚴(yán)格遵守。在現(xiàn)代，這意味著金本位或銀本位。
In technical economic theory, the only coherent definition for inflation is an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. Deflation is the opposite, namely a reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. The economist who wishes to influence public policy and avert disaster shouldn’t lecture others on their sloppy use of terminology, but instead should expose the errors of inflationism.
在技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論中，對(duì)通貨膨脹唯一一致的定義是：（廣義）貨幣數(shù)量的增加不會(huì)被（廣義）貨幣需求的相應(yīng)增加所抵消，其必然結(jié)果是貨幣購(gòu)買力下降。通貨緊縮則是相反的，即貨幣數(shù)量的減少不會(huì)被需求下降所抵消，從而使價(jià)格趨于下降。希望影響公共政策并避免災(zāi)難的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不應(yīng)該向其他人講授他們對(duì)術(shù)語(yǔ)的草率使用方法，而是應(yīng)該揭露通脹主義的錯(cuò)誤。
章節(jié)大綱
一、貨幣政策的定義
Originally, citizens judged the success of monetary policy by the soundness of the coinage it maintained in circulation. If and when governments violated that trust by debasing the coinage, it was for fiscal (i.e., budgetary) ends: the authorities needed more money and so turned to inflation.
起初，公民們通過(guò)鑄幣在流通中被保持的健康性來(lái)判斷貨幣政策是否成功。如果政府通過(guò)降低鑄幣成色而違反了這種信任，那是為了財(cái)政（即預(yù)算）的目的：當(dāng)局需要更多的貨幣，于是轉(zhuǎn)向了通貨膨脹。
In modern times, however, governments use monetary policy to achieve other socio-political aims. Although particular factions may favor one monetary policy versus another because of the specific advantages they expect to derive—for example, the owners of gold mines favoring a return to the gold standard—in general monetary policy nowadays refers to government (or central bank) efforts to alter the purchasing power of money.
然而，在現(xiàn)代，政府利用貨幣政策來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)其它社會(huì)政治目標(biāo)。雖然特定派別可能傾向于一種貨幣政策而不是另一種貨幣政策，因?yàn)樗麄兤谕@得特殊的利益——例如，金礦的所有者支持回歸金本位——貨幣政策現(xiàn)今通常是指政府（或中央銀行）改變貨幣購(gòu)買力的努力。
二、貨幣政策工具
The chief instrument through which the State carries out monetary policy is its strong influence on the kind of money used by the citizenry. As controller of the mint and sole issuer of money substitutes, the modern State has wide discretion in this “choice” by its subjects. If the State decides to remain on a metallic standard (such as gold or silver), then it still must choose which precious metal. More generally, if the State opts for a credit or fiat money, then the State has the further option of altering the quantity of money at will, to achieve its objectives regarding the purchasing power of money.
國(guó)家實(shí)施貨幣政策的主要手段是對(duì)公民使用的貨幣種類施加強(qiáng)烈影響。作為鑄幣廠的控制者和貨幣替代品的唯一發(fā)行者，現(xiàn)代國(guó)家對(duì)貨幣種類的這種“選擇”具有廣泛的自由裁量權(quán)。如果國(guó)家決定保持金屬標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（如金或銀），那么它仍然必須選擇哪種貴金屬。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，如果國(guó)家選擇信用貨幣或法定貨幣，那么國(guó)家還可以選擇隨意改變貨幣數(shù)量，以實(shí)現(xiàn)其有關(guān)貨幣購(gòu)買力的目標(biāo)。
三、通貨膨脹主義
Inflationism is that monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money. Nai?ve inflationism believes that money constitutes wealth, and that creating more money will turn poor into rich. A second group of inflationists understands that printing more money will cause prices to rise (an elementary fact that the first group fails to see). Yet even so this second group endorses the policy, because they want to help debtors, or achieve some other goal, by raising prices. Finally, a third group of inflationists understands that the policy in general will wreak economic havoc, but they support it too because they believe some government programs (such as defense from foreign invaders) are absolutely essential, and sometimes must be paid for through an “inflation tax.”
通貨膨脹主義是旨在增加貨幣數(shù)量的貨幣政策。膚淺的通貨膨脹主義者認(rèn)為貨幣構(gòu)成財(cái)富，創(chuàng)造更多的貨幣將使窮人變成富人。第二類通脹主義者明白，印更多的貨幣會(huì)導(dǎo)致物價(jià)上漲（第一類人看不到這一基本事實(shí)）。但第二類通脹主義者還是支持這項(xiàng)政策，因?yàn)樗麄兿Ｍㄟ^(guò)提高價(jià)格來(lái)幫助債務(wù)人或?qū)崿F(xiàn)其它目標(biāo)。最后，第三類通脹主義者明白，總體而言這一政策將嚴(yán)重破壞經(jīng)濟(jì)，但他們也支持這一政策，因?yàn)樗麄冋J(rèn)為某些政府項(xiàng)目（如防御外國(guó)侵略者）是絕對(duì)必要的，有時(shí)必須通過(guò)“通脹稅”來(lái)支付。
This third defense of inflation underscores the anti-democratic nature of the policy. Its proponents candidly admit that the public would never support certain programs (such as major wars) if they were forced to explicitly bear the full financial burden through taxation or government deficits financed by genuine savings. But when the programs are funded (partially) through the printing press, it is not clear to the average voter what is causing prices to rise and his standard of living to fall. He blames unions or currency speculators, not government spending.
對(duì)通貨膨脹的第三種辯護(hù)強(qiáng)調(diào)了該政策的反民主性質(zhì)。它的支持者們坦誠(chéng)地承認(rèn)，如果公眾被迫通過(guò)稅收或由真正儲(chǔ)蓄提供資金的政府赤字來(lái)明確承擔(dān)全部財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)，他們將永遠(yuǎn)不會(huì)支持某些計(jì)劃（如重大戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)）。但是，當(dāng)這些項(xiàng)目通過(guò)印刷機(jī)獲得（部分）資金時(shí)，普通選民并不清楚是什么導(dǎo)致了價(jià)格上漲和他的生活水平下降。他會(huì)指責(zé)工會(huì)或貨幣投機(jī)者，而不是政府支出。
Ironically, if the public anticipates a sharp future decline in the purchasing power of money because of an influx of new notes (printed by the government), then prices in the present can rise in expectation. Yet until the new notes physically exist, there may appear a shortage of notes. Thus the public and academics may clamor for more inflation, in order to satisfy the apparent “needs of commerce.” Yet it is inflationism itself that has caused the problem, and further bouts will only exacerbate the situation.
具有諷刺意味的是，如果公眾預(yù)期由于（由政府印制的）新紙幣的涌入，貨幣購(gòu)買力將在未來(lái)大幅下降，那么當(dāng)前的價(jià)格可能會(huì)隨預(yù)期上漲。然而，在新紙幣實(shí)際存在之前，可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)紙幣短缺的情況。因此，公眾和學(xué)者可能會(huì)呼吁更多的通貨膨脹，以滿足明顯的“商業(yè)需求”。然而，正是通貨膨脹本身造成了問(wèn)題，而進(jìn)一步的通貨膨脹只會(huì)加劇這種情況。
Economic science cannot judge the policy objectives of inflationism; it cannot say whether it is proper to (say) help debtors or exporters at the expense of others. But what economics can say, without making any value judgments, is that inflationism is a very poor policy for achieving its stated objectives. Each of its alleged goals (helping debtors, helping exporters, etc.) can be achieved much more directly by other interventions besides a general debasement of the monetary unit. In this sense economics can criticize inflationism.
經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)無(wú)法判斷通貨膨脹主義的政策目標(biāo)，它不能說(shuō)是否應(yīng)該犧牲他人的利益來(lái)幫助債務(wù)人或出口商。但是，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)可以說(shuō)，即使不作任何價(jià)值判斷，通貨膨脹對(duì)于實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定目標(biāo)而言也是一個(gè)非常糟糕的政策。除了貨幣單位的普遍貶值外，它所宣稱的每一個(gè)目標(biāo)（幫助債務(wù)人、幫助出口商等）都可以通過(guò)其他干預(yù)措施更直接地實(shí)現(xiàn)。從這個(gè)意義上講，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)可以批評(píng)通貨膨脹主義。
四、限制主義或通貨緊縮主義
Restrictionism or deflationism is policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money. It is unpopular for various reasons. First, governments do not benefit from it because they must sacrifice potential spending in order to (say) retire some of the notes collected through taxation. Second, a nation with an appreciating currency would see a “deteriorating” trade balance in the eyes of the public, which is also unpopular. Finally, the primary beneficiaries of deflationism are creditors, who generally speaking are a small and unpopular group.
限制主義或通貨緊縮主義是旨在提高貨幣客觀交換價(jià)值的政策。由于種種原因，它并不受歡迎。首先，政府不能從中受益，因?yàn)樗麄儽仨殸奚鼭撛诘闹С?，以便（比如）退還一些通過(guò)稅收收集的紙幣。其次，一個(gè)貨幣升值的國(guó)家在公眾眼中會(huì)看到“惡化”的貿(mào)易平衡，這也是不受歡迎的。最后，通貨緊縮的主要受益者是債權(quán)人，他們通常是一個(gè)規(guī)模小而且不受歡迎的群體。
The only time deflationism is politically viable occurs after a period of inflationism, either for matters of prestige or to assure international creditors to continue using a certain country’s financial institutions. Yet even here, a policy of deflationism does not simply reverse the harms of the prior inflation, but instead causes many new harms of its own. For example, many of the creditors who will be helped by the current round of deflation were not the same people harmed during the inflation. In general it must be concluded that deflationism is a poor method for achieving the specific aims of its proponents.
通貨緊縮主義在政治上可行的唯一時(shí)期發(fā)生在通貨膨脹時(shí)期之后，無(wú)論是為了信譽(yù)還是為了保證國(guó)際債權(quán)人繼續(xù)使用某個(gè)國(guó)家的金融機(jī)構(gòu)。然而即使在這時(shí)，通貨緊縮政策也并不能簡(jiǎn)單地扭轉(zhuǎn)先前通貨膨脹的危害，反而會(huì)引發(fā)許多新的危害。例如，許多將受到當(dāng)前通貨緊縮幫助的債權(quán)人并非是那些在通貨膨脹期間受到傷害的人?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，必須得出結(jié)論，通貨緊縮政策是實(shí)現(xiàn)其支持者具體目標(biāo)的一種糟糕方法。
五、作為貨幣政策目標(biāo)的貨幣客觀交換價(jià)值的穩(wěn)定性
If neither inflationism nor deflationism is capable of achieving its stated objectives, the only sensible monetary policy is one that aims at eliminating all government interference with the purchasing power of money. In practice, this means a rigid adherence to a commodity standard, which in modern times means either the gold or silver standard.
由于通貨膨脹主義和通貨緊縮主義都不能實(shí)現(xiàn)其既定目標(biāo)，唯一合理的貨幣政策是消除政府對(duì)貨幣購(gòu)買力的一切干預(yù)。在實(shí)踐中，這意味著對(duì)商品本位制的嚴(yán)格遵守。在現(xiàn)代，這意味著金本位或銀本位。
六、貨幣政策的局限性
As all government efforts to influence the purchasing power of money must ultimately work through the subjective valuations of individuals, in this realm as in others the government’s power is limited. The authorities cannot anticipate the precise, long-run effects of their efforts to manipulate the currency, and this is one of the strongest arguments against such manipulation in the first place.
由于政府影響貨幣購(gòu)買力的所有努力最終都必須通過(guò)個(gè)人的主觀估值來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)，在這一領(lǐng)域，與其它領(lǐng)域一樣，政府的能力是有限的。當(dāng)局無(wú)法預(yù)測(cè)他們操縱貨幣的努力所產(chǎn)生的精確、長(zhǎng)期的影響，這是最有力反對(duì)這種操縱的論據(jù)之一。
七、附記：通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮概念
In technical economic theory, the only coherent definition for inflation is an increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. Deflation is the opposite, namely a reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. However, outside the realm of technical economics, the terms inflation and deflation have certain connotations. The economist who wishes to influence public policy and avert disaster shouldn’t lecture others on their sloppy use of terminology, but instead should expose the errors of inflationism.
在技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論中，對(duì)通貨膨脹唯一一致的定義是：（廣義）貨幣數(shù)量的增加不會(huì)被（廣義）貨幣需求的相應(yīng)增加所抵消，其必然結(jié)果是貨幣購(gòu)買力下降。通貨緊縮則是相反的，即貨幣數(shù)量的減少不會(huì)被需求下降所抵消，從而使價(jià)格趨于下降。然而，在技術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)領(lǐng)域之外，“通貨膨脹”和“通貨緊縮”這兩個(gè)術(shù)語(yǔ)具有一定的內(nèi)涵。希望影響公共政策并避免災(zāi)難的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家不應(yīng)該向其他人講授他們對(duì)術(shù)語(yǔ)的草率使用方法，而是應(yīng)該揭露通脹主義的錯(cuò)誤。
技術(shù)說(shuō)明
On page 219 Mises writes, “If a country has a metallic standard, then the only measure of currency policy that it can carry out by itself is to go over to another kind of money.” What Mises has in mind—and this is borne out by the important phrase “by itself”—is that the classical gold standard placed strict limits on each of the participating countries. In the period before the first World War, for example, the United States government pegged the dollar to 23.22 grains of gold (working out to around $20.67 per ounce), while the British government pegged its own currency at the rate of ￡4.25 to an ounce of gold. Thus the exchange rate between the dollar and British pound was fixed at $4.86 to a pound. If the United States government began printing up excessive amounts of new dollars, this would tend to cause domestic prices (quoted in dollars) to rise faster than they did (quoted in pounds) in Great Britain. Americans would start importing more from (cheaper) British producers, and the resulting trade deficit would allow the British to accumulate more and more dollars. This in turn would put pressure on the foreign exchange rate, which would (under a fiat standard) simply cause the dollar to depreciate against the British pound. But since both currencies were tied to gold at fixed rates, the falling dollar would open up an arbitrage opportunity for speculators to turn their dollars into the U.S. authorities in exchange for gold. Thus, as its gold reserves began to dwindle, the U.S. would have to abandon its inflationary path. Thus a metallic standard keeps sharp limits on the inflationary policies of any single country.
在英文版第219頁(yè)，米塞斯寫道：“如果一國(guó)已采用某種金屬本位制，則該國(guó)自己所能采取的唯一通貨政策措施，就是改用另一種貨幣?！薄霸搰?guó)自己”這個(gè)重要的詞證實(shí)了，米塞斯認(rèn)為古典金本位對(duì)每個(gè)參與國(guó)都有嚴(yán)格的限制。例如，在第一次世界大戰(zhàn)之前，美國(guó)政府將美元與23.22格令黃金掛鉤（相當(dāng)于每盎司20.67美元左右），而英國(guó)政府則將本國(guó)貨幣與黃金的匯率固定在4.25英鎊兌換1盎司黃金。因此，美元和英鎊之間的匯率固定為4.86美元對(duì)1英鎊。如果美國(guó)政府開(kāi)始印刷過(guò)多的新美元，這將導(dǎo)致國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格（以美元計(jì)價(jià)）比英國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格（以英鎊計(jì)價(jià)）上漲更快。美國(guó)人將開(kāi)始從（更便宜的）英國(guó)生產(chǎn)商進(jìn)口更多的產(chǎn)品，由此產(chǎn)生的貿(mào)易逆差將使英國(guó)人積累越來(lái)越多的美元。這反過(guò)來(lái)會(huì)對(duì)外匯匯率施加壓力，而這（在法定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)下）只會(huì)導(dǎo)致美元兌英鎊貶值。但由于這兩種貨幣都以固定匯率與黃金掛鉤，美元貶值將為投機(jī)者提供套利機(jī)會(huì)，將美元兌換成美國(guó)當(dāng)局的黃金。從而，隨著黃金儲(chǔ)備開(kāi)始減少，美國(guó)將不得不放棄其通脹之路。因此，金屬本位制對(duì)任何一個(gè)國(guó)家的通脹政策都有嚴(yán)格的限制。On page 227 Mises writes, “In all countries where inflation has been rapid, it has been observed that the decrease in the value of the money has occurred faster than the increase in its quantity.” On the following page he explains that the value of money is influenced by both supply and demand. For a modern example, suppose that the Chairman of the Federal Reserve announced that he would cause the quantity of U.S. dollars to rise by a factor of 1,000 in the course of a week. Even ignoring the step-by-step process of inflation, the end result would not simply be a general 1,000-fold rise in prices. Instead, prices (quoted in U.S. dollars) would rise by much more than that, because Americans would no longer want to hold dollars. They would no longer view the dollar as a safe currency, and would seek to replace their dollar holdings with either other currencies or perhaps the precious metals. In order to restore equilibrium, then, prices would have to rise not merely on account of the extra quantity of dollars, but also because of the sharp drop in the subjective desire to hold them.
在英文版第227頁(yè)，米塞斯寫道，“在所有通貨膨脹迅速的國(guó)家，人們都注意到貨幣價(jià)值的下降速度快于貨幣數(shù)量的增加?！痹谙乱豁?yè)，他解釋說(shuō)貨幣價(jià)值受到供需雙方的影響。舉一個(gè)現(xiàn)代的例子，假設(shè)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席宣布他將在一周內(nèi)使美元數(shù)量增加1000倍。即使忽略了通貨膨脹的逐步發(fā)生過(guò)程，最終的結(jié)果也不會(huì)是物價(jià)普遍上漲1000倍。取而代之的是，價(jià)格（以美元報(bào)價(jià)）的上漲幅度將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)這個(gè)數(shù)字，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)人不再想要持有美元。他們將不再把美元視為一種安全的貨幣，并將尋求用其他貨幣貴金屬取代他們持有的美元。于是，為了恢復(fù)均衡，不但因?yàn)槊涝念~外數(shù)量，而且因?yàn)槌钟忻涝闹饔^愿望急劇下降，價(jià)格將不得不上漲。
新術(shù)語(yǔ)
Monetary policy: Government or central bank efforts to alter the purchasing power of money.
貨幣政策：政府或中央銀行改變貨幣購(gòu)買力的努力。Inflationism: Monetary policy that seeks to increase the quantity of money.
通貨膨脹：追求增加貨幣數(shù)量的貨幣政策。Nai?ve inflationism: Inflationism supported by the belief that money constitutes wealth.
膚淺的通貨膨脹主義：一種通貨膨脹主義，由貨幣構(gòu)成財(cái)富這樣的信念支撐。Inflation tax: The redistribution of wealth from the citizenry to the government (or its designated beneficiaries) through inflation.
通貨膨脹稅：通過(guò)通貨膨脹將財(cái)富從公民手中重新分配給政府（或其指定受益人）。Restrictionism/Deflationism: Monetary policy that aims at raising the objective exchange value of money.
限制主義/通縮主義：旨在提高貨幣的客觀交換價(jià)值的貨幣政策。Inflation: An increase in the quantity of money (in the broader sense of the term) that is not offset by a corresponding increase in the demand for money (in the broader sense of the term), with the necessary result being a fall in the purchasing power of money. (Note that this is a technical economic definition, not necessarily having the connotations of “inflation” in popular discussions.)
通貨膨脹：貨幣數(shù)量（廣義上）的增加，不被貨幣需求（廣義上）的相應(yīng)增加所抵消，其必然結(jié)果是貨幣購(gòu)買力的下降。（請(qǐng)注意，這是一個(gè)技術(shù)性的經(jīng)濟(jì)定義，在流行討論中不一定具有“通貨膨脹”的含義。）Deflation: A reduction in the quantity of money that is not offset by a fall in the demand for it, such that prices tend to fall. (Note that this is a technical economic definition, not necessarily having the connotations of “deflation” in popular discussions.)
通貨緊縮：貨幣數(shù)量的減少不會(huì)被貨幣需求的下降所抵消，從而導(dǎo)致物價(jià)趨于下降。（請(qǐng)注意，這是一個(gè)技術(shù)性的經(jīng)濟(jì)定義，在流行討論中不一定具有“通貨緊縮”的含義。）
研究問(wèn)題
What unflattering possibility does Mises suggest regarding Ben Franklin’s support of paper money early in his career? (p. 217)
米塞斯認(rèn)為，本·富蘭克林在其職業(yè)生涯早期對(duì)于紙幣的支持有什么不光彩的可能性？（英文版第217頁(yè)）Why does “nai?ve inflationism” recommend an increase in the quantity of money? (pp. 219–20)
為什么“膚淺的通貨膨脹主義”建議增加貨幣數(shù)量？（英文版第219-220頁(yè)）Is it possible for someone to support inflationism, even if he understands that it will have grave economic consequences? (pp. 221–22)
是否有可能，有人即使知道通貨膨脹會(huì)帶來(lái)嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果，但他仍然支持通貨膨脹？（英文版第221-222頁(yè)）Explain: “Inflation becomes the most important psychological resource of any economic policy whose consequences have to be concealed; and so in this sense it can be called an instrument of unpopular, i.e., of anti-democratic, policy, since by misleading public opinion it makes possible the continued existence of a system of government that would have no hope of the consent of the people if the circumstances were clearly laid before them.” (pp. 223–24)
解釋：“通貨膨脹成為必須隱瞞其后果的任何經(jīng)濟(jì)政策最重要的心理資源；因此，從這個(gè)意義上講，它可以被稱為不受歡迎政策（即反民主政策）的工具。因?yàn)橥ㄟ^(guò)誤導(dǎo)公眾輿論，它可能使沒(méi)有希望獲得民眾支持（如果情況清楚地?cái)[在他們面前）的政府制度繼續(xù)存在?！保ㄓ⑽陌娴?23-224頁(yè)）Would Mises have been surprised by the second half of the twentieth century, since he writes, “In the long run, a money which continually fell in value would have no commercial utility. It could not be used as a standard of deferred payments” (p. 227)?
米塞斯會(huì)不會(huì)對(duì)20世紀(jì)下半葉感到驚訝，因?yàn)樗麑懙?，“從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，不斷貶值的貨幣將沒(méi)有商業(yè)用途。它不能用作延期付款的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)?！保ㄓ⑽陌娴?27頁(yè)）
