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題記：美國弗吉尼亞大學達頓商學院的薩拉斯（Saras Sarasvathy）教授（其導師是諾貝爾經(jīng)濟學獎獲得者赫伯特·西蒙）提出的效果推理（Effectuation）理論概括了一種超越古典決策邏輯的、解釋創(chuàng)業(yè)者在不確定環(huán)境或市場不存在的情況下，創(chuàng)建新企業(yè)的獨特行為的最有說服力的理論之一。這一理論在十余年間獲得學界高度關(guān)注和廣泛認可，被認為是創(chuàng)業(yè)研究領(lǐng)域最具原創(chuàng)性的成果。為深入了解薩拉斯教授的研究過程、研究方法及其成果——效果推理（Effectuation）理論的核心觀點、理論精髓，從本期開始“子謙譯文”將分5期連載薩拉斯教授在2001年發(fā)表的一篇重要研究文獻——《是什么賦予創(chuàng)業(yè)者創(chuàng)業(yè)力？》（What makes entrepreneurs entrepren-eurial?）。

本譯文為五篇連載的第4期。

效果推理：邏輯

所有這些效果推理的原則背后有一個連貫的邏輯，它建立在一個與因果推理完全不同的關(guān)于未來的假設之上。因果推理基于的邏輯是：在某種程度上我們可以預測未來，（所以）我們可以控制未來。這就是為什么當今的商科學者和從業(yè)者都在預測模型的開發(fā)上花費了大量的精力和資源的原因。而效果推理所基于的邏輯是：在某種程度上我們可以控制未來，（所以）我們不需要預測它。

如何控制一個不可預測的未來？這個問題的答案取決于我們對未來從何而來的認知。未來主要是過去的延續(xù)嗎？人?類的行為在多大程度上可以改變其進程？雖然未來總是不確定，但并非所有的不確定都是雷同的。我們可以利用最簡單經(jīng)典的統(tǒng)計模型對不同類型的不確定性進行模擬：把不確定的未來當作盛有不同顏色球的盒子，如果抽取到其中的紅球會得到獎勵（比如是50美元）。假設第一個盒子中有10個紅球和10個綠球。在這種情況下，玩家可以計算出每局25美元的預期回報率，因為贏得50美元的機率是50%。這是一個有風險但可預測的未來的模型。

然而，創(chuàng)業(yè)者以及現(xiàn)實世界中的大多數(shù)人通常必須在沒有這種可預測性的情況下處事。他們必須面對的盒子中沒有已知數(shù)量和已知顏色的球，而是盛著未知數(shù)量、未知顏色的球，但游戲規(guī)則保持不變。在這種情況下，對于玩家來說，最好的策略是隨機抽取數(shù)次球，并仔細記錄下每次抽取的結(jié)果，以便隨著抽取次數(shù)的增多來發(fā)現(xiàn)盒子中球的分布規(guī)律。這是一個有關(guān)不確定但可學習的未來的模型，未來隨著抽取次數(shù)的增多變得可以預測。使用?“在某種程度上我們可以預測未來并控制它”的因果邏輯在這兩種情況下都有意義。

但創(chuàng)業(yè)者更愿選擇通過效果邏輯來看待未來。無論是有意識的還是無意識的，他們的行為都表明：他們相信未來不是“在那里”等著被發(fā)現(xiàn)，而是通過玩家的策略被創(chuàng)造出來的。換句話說，創(chuàng)業(yè)者運用效果邏輯表明：“無論盒子中球的初始分布如何，我都會持續(xù)去尋得紅球并將它們放入盒中。我也會尋找其他擁有紅球的人，說服他們成為伙伴，并將他們的紅球放入盒中。隨著時間的推移，盒中會集有越來越多的紅球，如此一來幾乎每一次抽取都會獲得一個紅球。另一種情況是，如果我和我的伙伴們只有綠球，我們將會把它們放入盒中，當盒中集有足夠的綠球時，一個以抽取到綠球為獲勝條件的新游戲?qū)粍?chuàng)造?！碑斎唬@種觀點可能只是表達了一種理想狀態(tài)而非現(xiàn)實，很多創(chuàng)業(yè)者在實際操作時確實失敗了。但事實仍然是，創(chuàng)業(yè)者使用這種邏輯不斷嘗試建立新的“盒子”、設計新的游戲。實際上，我研究過的幾位專家型創(chuàng)業(yè)者明確表示，停留在一個可以預測的市場中并不是一個絕佳策略，因為總會有人比他們更聰明、有更多資源，會比他們更好地預測市場。而處于一個不可預測的市場中意味著，市場可以通過他們自己的決策行動與預先承諾的利益相關(guān)者和客戶合作伙伴共同創(chuàng)造。他們可以一起使用意外事件作為原材料的一部分，來創(chuàng)建他們的“盒子”。

專家型創(chuàng)業(yè)者通常不參與賭球業(yè)務或博彩業(yè)務，實際上他們是在從事創(chuàng)造未來的業(yè)務，這需要長期與各式各樣的人一起工作。一個代表著未來的堅固盒子中裝有持久的人際關(guān)系，這種關(guān)系比失敗更經(jīng)久不衰，并且隨著時間的推移助力成功的創(chuàng)造。

在這種持久關(guān)系的網(wǎng)絡中，效果推理在新市場中引入新產(chǎn)品等領(lǐng)域極為有效，這一領(lǐng)域通常被稱為自殺象限（參見下圖），正是傳統(tǒng)營銷技術(shù)無效的領(lǐng)域。

這是因為效果邏輯依賴于人，因果邏輯依賴于結(jié)果。換句話說，當某個具體結(jié)果已被選定，例如一個現(xiàn)有市場中的目標細分，那么我們雇傭及合作的人選將取決于我們想要創(chuàng)造的結(jié)果或者我們想要進入的市場。而效果邏輯并不假設預先存在的市場，而是建立在如下觀念之上：我們所創(chuàng)造的市場將取決于我們能夠聚集在一起的人。事實上，在效果推理中，市場本質(zhì)上是一群關(guān)鍵利益相關(guān)者的穩(wěn)定配置，這些利益相關(guān)者聚集在一起，通過經(jīng)濟手段將人類想象力的成果轉(zhuǎn)化為人類愿望的形成和實現(xiàn)。

在創(chuàng)業(yè)領(lǐng)域，無論是銀行家、律師、風險投資家還是其他投資者，經(jīng)驗豐富的專業(yè)人士長久以來都認同成功創(chuàng)業(yè)者的觀點：找到并帶領(lǐng)“對”的人去創(chuàng)造才是持久創(chuàng)業(yè)的關(guān)鍵。這些創(chuàng)業(yè)者們知道，所謂“對”的人不會在就業(yè)市場上等待著創(chuàng)業(yè)者為其提供工作并給予激勵。相反，“對”的人要在努力的目標和事情中擁有情感主動權(quán)，并且只會被自己對創(chuàng)造未來的信念所激勵，這種信念飽涵著他們最高昂的激情和最深切的愿望，同時使他們最大化發(fā)揮出自己的潛能。

偉大的創(chuàng)業(yè)者會更多地意識到人的因素在創(chuàng)建“盒子”時的核心作用。使用效果邏輯，讓他們知道他們也不能一直等待著“對”的人到來。除了不斷努力吸引“對”的人之外，他們還會學習如何自己去栽培和塑造“對”的人。正如喬西亞·韋奇伍德（Josiah Wedgwood）所寫的那樣，“我們必須把藝術(shù)家變成真實的‘人’?！盇ES是一家價值數(shù)十億美元，業(yè)務遍及全球幾十個國家的電力公司，最近，它的創(chuàng)始人說：“AES有趣的地方在于，在這里工作的人都全情投入和參與。他們完全有決策的權(quán)利和責任，他們要對結(jié)果負責。每天所做的事情對公司和對我們經(jīng)營的社區(qū)來說都至關(guān)重要?！?/p>

AES人員工作場景

但是，對于在創(chuàng)業(yè)活動中使用效果邏輯也有一個黑暗推論。由于他們沒有設想具體預存的目標或結(jié)果，而是在實施的過程中讓結(jié)果漸漸顯現(xiàn)，所以在利用效果邏輯創(chuàng)造產(chǎn)品和市場時，創(chuàng)業(yè)者及其合作伙伴也可能最終給他們所生活的社會帶去不利后果。他們創(chuàng)造的結(jié)果也可能會反映出那些參與創(chuàng)造新“盒子”和新游戲的人們的愚昧和貪婪，以及他們的意愿和愿望。但是，我們對效果推理的認知應該達到讓其更清楚地提醒著我們：創(chuàng)業(yè)者和市場體系中的其他成員在創(chuàng)造未來時應站在“人”的角度去思考，而不僅僅是緊盯GDP的數(shù)字增長。

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作者——Saras D. Sarasvathy?

譯者——師柔劍

審稿——吳現(xiàn)波

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附原文

Effectual reasoning: The logic

Underlying all the principles of effectual?reasoning is a coherent logic that rests on a?fundamentally different assumption about the?future than causal reasoning. Causal reasoning?is based on the logic, To the extent that we can?predict the future, we can control it. That is?why both academics and practitioners in?business today spend enormous amounts of?brainpower and resources on?developing?predictive models. Effectual reasoning,?however, is based on the logic, To the extent that?we can control the future, we do not need to?predict it.

How does one control an unpredictable?future? The answer to this question depends on?our beliefs about where the future comes from.?Is the future largely a continuation of the past??To what extent can human action actually?change its course? While the future is always?uncertain, not all uncertainties are the same. In?fact, the simplest way we can model the?different types of uncertainties is through the?classic statistical model of the future as an urn?containing different colored balls wherein the?drawing of (say) a red ball, results in a reward?(of say, $50). Assume the first urn contains 10?red balls and 10 green balls. In this case, the?player can calculate the odds as an expected?return of $25 on every draw since there is a 50-50 chance of winning $50. This is the model of?a risky, but?predictable, future. Entrepreneurs,?as well as most human beings in the real world,?however, usually have to?operate without such?predictability. The urn they have to?deal with?does not have a given number of balls of known?colors. Instead it contains an unknown number?of balls of unknown colors, but the game?remains the same. In this case, the best strategy?for the player is to draw balls randomly several?times and to carefully note the result of each?draw so that the distribution of balls in the urn?can be discovered over time. This is a model of?an uncertain, but learnable future that becomes?predictable over time. Using the causal logic --?to the extent we can predict the future, we can?control it – makes sense in both these cases.?

But entrepreneurs choose to view the future?through effectual logic. Consciously, or?unconsciously, they act as if they believe that the?future is not “out there” to be discovered, but?that it gets created through the very strategies of?the players. In other words, the entrepreneur?using effectual logic says: "Whatever the initial?distribution of balls in the urn, I will continue to?acquire red balls and put them in the urn. I will?look for other people who own red balls and?induce them to become partners and add to the?red balls in the urn. As time goes by, there will?be so many red balls in the urn that almost every?draw will obtain one. On the other hand, if I and?my acquaintances have only green balls, we will?put them in the urn, and when there are enough,?will create a new game where green balls win."?Of?course, such a view may express hopes rather?than realities, and many entrepreneurs in the real?world do fail. But the fact remains that?entrepreneurs use this logic to try and build new?urns and devise new games all the time. In fact,?several of the expert entrepreneurs I studied?explicitly stated that being in a market that could?be predicted was not such a good idea, since?there would always be someone smarter and?with deeper pockets who would predict it better?than they could. But being in an unpredictable?market meant that the market could be shaped?through their own decisions and actions working?in conjunction with pre-committed stakeholders?and customer-partners.?Together they could use?contingencies along the way as part of the raw?materials that constitute the very urn they are?constructing.?

Expert entrepreneurs are not usually in the?ball counting business or the gaming business.?Instead they are actually in the business of?creating the future, which entails having to work?together with a wide variety of people over long?periods of time. Sturdy urns of the future are?filled with enduring human relationships that?outlive failures and create successes over time.??

Embodied in a network of such enduring?relationships, effectual logic is particularly?useful and effective in domains such as the?introduction of new products in new markets, an?area often referred to as the suicide quadrant?(See Figure 3), exactly the area where traditional?marketing techniques are ineffective.?

That is because effectual logic is people?dependent, unlike causal logic, which is effect?dependent. In other words, when a?particular?effect has already been chosen such as a target?segment within an existing market, the people?we hire?and partner with will depend on the?effect we want to create or the market we want?to penetrate. Effectual logic, however, does not?assume pre-existent markets and?builds on the?idea that the markets we create will be?predicated on the people we are able to bring?together. In fact, in effectual reasoning, markets?are in essence stable configurations of critical?masses of stakeholders who come together to?transform the outputs of human imagination into?the forging and fulfillment of human aspirations?through economic means.??

Experienced professionals in the?entrepreneurial arena, whether they?are bankers,?lawyers, VCs or other investors have always?agreed with successful entrepreneurs that finding?and leading the right people is the key to?creating an enduring venture. These?entrepreneurs know that such “right” people are?not on the job market waiting for the jobs and?incentives the?entrepreneurs can offer them.?Instead the “right” people need emotional?ownership in the goals and objectives of the?endeavor and can only be incentivized by the?belief that the effects they create will embody?their deepest passions and aspirations while?enabling them to achieve their best potential.?

But great entrepreneurs realize something?more about the central role of people in shaping?the urn. Using effectual logic, they understand?that they too cannot wait around to find the?“right” people all the time. Besides continually?striving to attract the “right” people, they learn?also to nurture and grow them in their own?backyards. As Josiah Wedgwood wrote, “We?have to make artists of mere men.” And more?recently, the founders of AES Corp., a multibillion?dollar electric power company with?operations in dozens of countries around the?world say, “[AES] is fun because the people?who work here are fully engaged. They have?total responsibility for decisions. They are?accountable for results. What they do every day?matters to the company, and it matters to the?communities we operate in.”

There is, however, a dark corollary to the?use of effectual logic in entrepreneurial activity.?Since they do not assume specific pre-existent?goals or effects and let these effects emerge?through the process, in using effectual logic to?create products and markets, entrepreneurs and?their partners may also end up creating harmful?and?problematic effects for the society they live?in. The effects they create may reflect the?ignorance and cupidity as well as the will and?aspirations of the people who participate in the?creation of new urns and games of the future.?But our awareness of the existence of effectual?reasoning should alert us more sharply to the?role of entrepreneurs and the market system in?shaping our future as a species, not merely as?contributors to GDP.