原文：https://www.thoughtworks.com/cn/insights/blog/macro-trends-tech-industry-may-2020
譯文：
**科技行業(yè)的宏觀趨勢(shì)｜2020 五月
The ThoughtWorks Technology Radar identifies a number of themes in each edition, but tends to be focused on fairly specific recommendations. But the discussions we have as we decide on those recommendations typically hint at larger things happening in the tech industry. So here, I’ll expand on that bigger picture.
ThoughtWorks技術(shù)雷達(dá)在每期發(fā)布的時(shí)候都會(huì)產(chǎn)出幾個(gè)主題，往往是一些非常具體的建議。實(shí)際上我們?cè)诖_定這些建議背后所進(jìn)行的討論通常暗含了整個(gè)技術(shù)行業(yè)正在發(fā)生的重大變革。因此，在這里，我將采用更宏觀的視野來描述它們。
Remote-everything, for the foreseeable future
在可以預(yù)見的未來，一切都將遠(yuǎn)程進(jìn)行
Like me, you’re probably exhausted reading overwrought pandemic-related commentary. But the implications of COVID-19 for the tech industry are large and things won’t ever return to the way they were before this crisis. Here are what I consider the most important facts and likely changes.
你可能跟我一樣已經(jīng)疲于閱讀跟這次新冠肺炎疫情相關(guān)的各種報(bào)道與評(píng)論。但是，必須承認(rèn)的是它對(duì)技術(shù)行業(yè)的影響是巨大的，因此發(fā)生的某些變化將永久持續(xù)。下面是我認(rèn)為最重要的事實(shí)和可能發(fā)生的變化。
Those of us in the software industry are well placed to deal with working from home, but are not immune to the realities of closed schools, unavailable childcare and general pandemic-induced stresses. It’s especially important to be tolerant of individual circumstances as not everyone is lucky enough to have a well-appointed home office or children who are able to take care of themselves.
我們軟件行業(yè)從業(yè)者比較適合在家工作，但仍然不能免受學(xué)校封閉、無法獲得托兒服務(wù)所帶來的影響以及疫情引起的心理壓力。這種情況下個(gè)人對(duì)生活環(huán)境的容忍度就顯得尤其重要，特別是會(huì)對(duì)工作造成影響的部分，畢竟并非每個(gè)人都擁有一個(gè)設(shè)備齊全的家庭辦公室或能夠獨(dú)立照顧自己的孩子。
In the first few weeks there was a scramble for basic infrastructure, access and tooling but the basics are all in place now. Remote collaboration is moving from “can we even do this?” to “what is the right way to do this?” and there’s a lot to be learned here. Many people are realizing that being on video all day is draining, and that translating in-person collaboration techniques directly into the digital world isn’t very effective. Instead, we all must think carefully about when teams should be online, when asynchronous collaboration can be used instead, and which digital facilitation tools work best for our context. We produced the Radar remotely due to the pandemic and learnt a lot in the process; if you’re interested in learning more we recorded a detailed podcast on our experiences.
在大規(guī)模實(shí)行遠(yuǎn)程辦公的初期，出現(xiàn)了爭(zhēng)奪基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、訪問權(quán)限和工具的現(xiàn)象，但現(xiàn)在所有的基礎(chǔ)資源都已經(jīng)到位。遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)作正從“我們是否能做到？”的自我懷疑轉(zhuǎn)變成“怎樣做才正確？”的卓越追求，在這一點(diǎn)上我們目前有很多東西要去學(xué)習(xí)。許多人意識(shí)到，整天連接在視頻會(huì)議是一種浪費(fèi)，直接將面對(duì)面的協(xié)作技術(shù)生硬地移植到數(shù)字世界并不高效。相反，我們應(yīng)該仔細(xì)考慮團(tuán)隊(duì)成員何時(shí)需要在線溝通，何時(shí)可以通過異步的方式進(jìn)行協(xié)作，以及哪些數(shù)字化的工具最適合我們的工作場(chǎng)景。由于疫情的發(fā)生，我們通過遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)作的方式制作了這一期技術(shù)雷達(dá)，并在此過程中學(xué)到了很多東西；如果你想了解更多與此相關(guān)的信息，可以查看記錄著我們工作實(shí)踐的播客。
ThoughtWorks is a strong advocate of pair programming, and we’ve blipped “pragmatic remote pairing” in this edition of the Radar.
ThoughtWorks十分提倡結(jié)對(duì)編程的實(shí)踐，我們?cè)谶@一版的技術(shù)雷達(dá)中記錄了“實(shí)用的遠(yuǎn)程結(jié)對(duì)”。
In short, pairing can absolutely be done in a remote-only world but you have to be sensible about tools, bandwidth and time zones.
簡而言之，結(jié)對(duì)編程完全可以在純遠(yuǎn)程工作環(huán)境中實(shí)現(xiàn)，但是你必須要考慮工具、帶寬和時(shí)區(qū)等因素帶來的影響。
The pandemic has shown every CIO the cracks in his or her digital infrastructure, whether that’s resiliency and scaling as customers moved online, or the ability to rapidly make changes, add features and get them into production. Most organizations have realized the inconvenient truth: they’re way behind the state of the art and are struggling to do “digital transformation” (whatever that means) to catch up.
疫情的發(fā)生為每個(gè)公司的CIO揭露了其數(shù)字基建中的缺陷，無論是當(dāng)客戶遷移到線上時(shí)所面臨的彈性和擴(kuò)展性問題，還是快速響應(yīng)變化的能力問題，亦或是添加新功能并快速上線的能力問題。大多數(shù)組織已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了造成這些不便利因素的真實(shí)原因：他們遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于最新的技術(shù)體系，并且正在努力進(jìn)行“數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型”（無論那意味著什么）來追趕。
As a consultancy, we have a fairly broad view across the industry and some of the changes have been quite positive. Clients that previously said “you must work in the office on our hardware” have relaxed their stance. In-person time has been replaced by virtual face-to-face time. In some cases this is a massive benefit: our clients can tap into a global network of experts and it doesn’t matter where that person is located (modulo time zones, of course). What’s interesting is that although in theory our clients could have accessed these people pre-pandemic, there’s much less of a barrier to doing so right now. There’s zero expectation someone will show up in person, so there’s no reluctance on our part to propose a non-local expert to help a client. I’m hopeful that across the industry we can all do more remote work in future rather than getting on airplanes all the time.
作為一家咨詢公司，我們?cè)谡麄€(gè)行業(yè)內(nèi)擁有相對(duì)廣泛的視野，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)其中一些變化能夠產(chǎn)生非常積極的影響。之前堅(jiān)持“您必須在辦公室使用我們的硬件工作”的客戶已經(jīng)有所轉(zhuǎn)變?，F(xiàn)實(shí)中的面對(duì)面交流被虛擬的面對(duì)面視頻會(huì)議所代替，在某些情況下，這是一個(gè)巨大的好處：我們的客戶可以利用全球性的專屬網(wǎng)絡(luò)，而這個(gè)人位于何處都無所謂（當(dāng)然，時(shí)區(qū)會(huì)有影響）。有趣的是，雖然從理論上講在疫情之前，我們的客戶可以與這些人直接接觸，但事實(shí)證明，現(xiàn)在這種遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)作的做法障礙要少得多。由于大概率不會(huì)在現(xiàn)場(chǎng)展開工作，需要本身具有一些該領(lǐng)域的背景知識(shí)，因此我們不建議非領(lǐng)域?qū)＜襾韼椭蛻?。我希望在整個(gè)行業(yè)中，所有人將來都可以在遠(yuǎn)程工作上投入更多的時(shí)間，而不是將大量的時(shí)間浪費(fèi)在乘坐飛機(jī)上。
Prof. Tom Malone (MIT) believes that the current crisis has accelerated us forwards a decade in terms of acceptance of remote working, and that there is no going back. Downtown office space will become less valuable as people decide they’d rather work from home or in a small neighborhood office than drive an hour into work. Tech companies expect to have a large proportion of their staff working remotely even after the crisis, maybe even 70% of staff on a permanent basis.
湯姆·馬龍（Tom Malone）教授（MIT）認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前的危機(jī)迫使我們提前十年接受遠(yuǎn)程辦公，并且沒有回頭路可走。市區(qū)辦公空間的價(jià)值會(huì)因?yàn)槿藗兏敢庠诩抑谢蛘咝⌒偷泥徖镛k公室工作而不是在花費(fèi)一個(gè)小時(shí)通勤而有所降低。一些科技公司期望即使在疫情結(jié)束后，仍有很大一部分員工保持遠(yuǎn)程工作，甚至有70％的員工將永久性地進(jìn)行遠(yuǎn)程辦公。
Tech conferences have also gone fully virtual, and are innovating in really interesting ways. One example is “Deserted Island DevOps” a one-day conference hosted entirely inside the game Animal Crossing New Horizons. Presenters and attendees used in-game avatars to visit the conference islands and were able to create some of the smaller-group interactions that we value so much from physical conferences.
技術(shù)會(huì)議也已完全虛擬化，并以非常有趣的方式進(jìn)行了創(chuàng)新。網(wǎng)絡(luò)上有一個(gè)“荒野島開發(fā)行動(dòng)”（Deserted Island DevOps）的例子：為期一天的會(huì)議完全在“集合啦！動(dòng)物森友會(huì)”游戲內(nèi)舉行。演示者和與會(huì)者使用游戲中的化身來訪問會(huì)議島，并能夠在其中進(jìn)行一些小型的小組互動(dòng)，這一點(diǎn)是我們?cè)诿鎸?duì)面會(huì)議中非常重視的部分。
One positive aspect of everyone staying home and industry being shuttered is that we have, albeit temporarily, reduced pollution. Some estimates say carbon emissions in 2020 could be reduced by up to 8%. Renewables continue to increase their market share, for the first time surpassing coal for US power generation. We’re driving less, with cities seeing improved traffic flows and reduced accidents. The state of California has halved traffic accidents, saving it 1 billion since its shelter-in-place order began. It’s possible that the collectivism and trust in science required to fight an invisible virus may help us do more to tackle climate change in future, too.
每個(gè)人呆在家里和關(guān)閉產(chǎn)業(yè)的一個(gè)積極方面是：我們減少了污染，盡管這些是暫時(shí)性的。一些預(yù)測(cè)表明，2020年的碳排放量最多可以減少8％?？稍偕茉磿?huì)繼續(xù)增加其市場(chǎng)份額，并且其在美國發(fā)電領(lǐng)域的市場(chǎng)占有率將首次超過煤炭。我們的駕駛量減少了，城市交通流量就有了改善，同時(shí)發(fā)生的事故也變少了。自從就地庇護(hù)令開始以來，加利福尼亞州的交通事故減少了一半，每天為其節(jié)省了4000萬美元，約合10億美元。對(duì)抗看不見摸不著的病毒所需的集體智慧和對(duì)科學(xué)的信任也有可能幫助我們?cè)谖磥響?yīng)對(duì)氣候變化方面產(chǎn)生更多價(jià)值。
While the human and economic costs of the pandemic continue to be very serious, I’m hopeful that the tech industry can use it as an opportunity to accelerate, reduce carbon heavy travel, and increase inclusivity and innovation.
盡管疫情下的生命和經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)非常慘重，但我希望科技行業(yè)可以以此為契機(jī)，加速減少炭排放量巨大的差旅并提高包容性和創(chuàng)新性。
X is software too
X 也是軟件
For me, some of the most interesting (and entertaining!) discussions around the Radar are what to put on ‘Hold.’ ThoughtWorkers around the world raise things they think are a problem and if we consider something to be a cross-industry concern, we add it to the Radar in the Hold ring. But as we dug into the reasoning and concerns surrounding several proposed ‘Hold’ blips it became clear to us that some of these problems aren’t new, they’re an older problem arising in a new (or more widespread) context. In many cases our previous advice on the right thing to do — the positive practice to ‘Adopt’ — is still relevant today.
我覺得圍繞技術(shù)雷達(dá)進(jìn)行的最有趣的討論是要標(biāo)記為“Hold”的內(nèi)容。世界各地的ThoughtWorkers提出他們認(rèn)為存在問題的技術(shù)進(jìn)行討論，如果我們認(rèn)為某些事情是跨行業(yè)的，我們會(huì)將其添加到技術(shù)雷達(dá)中標(biāo)記為“Hold”的一環(huán)中。但是，當(dāng)我們深入探討幾個(gè)擬議的“Hold”項(xiàng)目的原因和疑慮時(shí)，我們逐漸發(fā)現(xiàn)其中的一些問題并不是新問題，而是在新的（或更廣泛的）環(huán)境中出現(xiàn)的老問題。在許多情況下，我們以前關(guān)于正確行事方式的建議—— 能夠產(chǎn)生積極影響的實(shí)踐就采納（“Adopt”）它——這一點(diǎn)直到今天仍然適用。
A good example of this is “infrastructure as code.” This is quite old advice, originally added to the Radar in 2011. Our colleague Kief Morris published a detailed book on the topic back in 2016, with an updated copy due to be released later this year. Today, we’re seeing many organizations get into trouble with their cloud migrations in part because they aren’t applying enough rigor to cloud infrastructure definitions, management and automation. So rather than putting “hand crafted cloud templates” or “failing to version control cloud infrastructure definitions” on Hold, we’ve taken the opportunity to refresh and re-highlight our advice on the matter. Similarly, we have reblipped and refreshed pipelines-as-code.
一個(gè)很好的例子是“基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)即代碼”。這是一個(gè)非常古老的建議，最初于2011年添加到技術(shù)雷達(dá)中。我們的同事Kief Morris于2016年出版了有關(guān)該主題的書籍，并將于今年下半年發(fā)布新的版本。我們目前看到許多組織在進(jìn)行云遷移時(shí)遇到了問題，部分原因是他們沒有對(duì)云基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)的定義、管理和自動(dòng)化實(shí)行足夠嚴(yán)格的要求。因此，我們沒有選擇把類似“手工制作的云模板”或“未能進(jìn)行版本控制的云基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)定義”這樣的條目添加到技術(shù)雷達(dá)的“Hold”環(huán)中，而是利用這次機(jī)會(huì)更新并再次強(qiáng)調(diào)了有關(guān)此問題的建議。同樣，我們也更新了“管道即代碼”這一條目。
Much of this arises because one of the major storylines of the past decade has been the rise of software, the rise of cloud and the rise of “as a service.” All of these enable us to use easily malleable software, or descriptions of a thing, rather than a hard-coded or physical instantiation which is slower to change. As a result, all of the important practices we’ve learnt about how to create software well — modularity, version control, automated testing — can and should be applied in these wider “software powered” contexts.
之所以會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況，是因?yàn)檫^去十年的主要故事情節(jié)之一是軟件的興起，云的興起和一系列“xxx 即服務(wù)”的興起。所有這些使我們能夠使用易擴(kuò)展的軟件，而不是使用硬編碼或物理實(shí)例化來描述事物，相較而言，后者響應(yīng)變化的速度會(huì)比較緩慢。最終，我們學(xué)到的所有有關(guān)如何更好地創(chuàng)建軟件的重要實(shí)踐——模塊化、版本控制、自動(dòng)測(cè)試——都可以并且應(yīng)該應(yīng)用于這些更廣泛的“軟件驅(qū)動(dòng)”場(chǎng)景中。
Cloud is the new legacy ball of mud
“云” 是新的“傳統(tǒng)大泥球”
Every organization in the world is moving to some kind of cloud hosting, whether private, public or hybrid, and the vast majority are choosing between the “Big 4” — AWS, Azure, GCP and Alicloud. But in their exuberance for getting systems off-prem and onto cloud, many could be creating problems for tomorrow. There are several issues here.
世界上的每個(gè)組織都在遷移到某種類型的云托管，無論是私有云、公共云還是混合云，并且絕大多數(shù)都在“四大云服務(wù)商”中進(jìn)行選擇——亞馬遜云（AWS）、微軟云（Azure）、谷歌云平臺(tái)（GCP）和阿里云（Alicloud）。但是，由于他們過于熱衷于將系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行非本地部署到云端，將來許多應(yīng)用可能會(huì)遇到困難，下面列出了幾個(gè)可能的問題。
Firstly, there tend to be what I would call “highly optimistic” cost savings and ROI projections for cloud migration. Yes, owning and operating a data centre is expensive, but cloud hosting isn’t cheap either. It’s unlikely you’ll really save anything on staffing costs. And when the limit on your usage is how fast teams can click the “create an instance” button, rather than IT provisioning a server, your overall environment sprawl can become a massive, costly problem.
首先，對(duì)于云遷移，通常會(huì)有所謂“高度樂觀”的成本節(jié)省和ROI預(yù)測(cè)。公司擁有和維護(hù)數(shù)據(jù)中心確實(shí)是非常昂貴的，但是使用云服務(wù)托管也并不便宜，而且也不太可能真正節(jié)省任何人力成本。同時(shí)，如果使用量的限制僅僅取決于團(tuán)隊(duì)成員點(diǎn)擊“創(chuàng)建實(shí)例”按鈕的速度的話，那么在整個(gè)環(huán)境中可能會(huì)演變成為一個(gè)龐大而昂貴的問題。
Secondly, “l(fā)ift and shift” is often used as a deliberate migration strategy, rather than a derogatory comment that someone isn’t thinking carefully about their migration. Enterprise IT estates have many hundreds, and usually thousands, of individual systems that need to run somewhere. Re-engineering all of them to properly understand and operate in a cloud environment is obviously cost prohibitive. But cloud isn’t like on-prem — servers fail, workloads are constantly moved around. Getting a traditional workload to run reliably in the cloud usually isn’t a zero-cost venture either. The reality is that the best answer for an organization is highly complex and varies for each application or group of applications, and the more we can re-engineer for cloud, the more we can improve reliability and reduce costs.
其次，“搬遷”通常被用作描述故意而為的遷移策略，而不是一個(gè)包含貶義的評(píng)論，即使他們并沒有仔細(xì)考慮他們的遷移。企業(yè)IT部門具有數(shù)百個(gè)甚至數(shù)千個(gè)需要在某個(gè)地方運(yùn)行的獨(dú)立系統(tǒng)。通過重新設(shè)計(jì)所有組件來正確理解它們并在云環(huán)境中運(yùn)行的成本顯然過于高昂。但是云并不像本地部署——服務(wù)器一旦出現(xiàn)故障，工作負(fù)載將會(huì)不斷移動(dòng)。使傳統(tǒng)工作負(fù)載在云中可靠運(yùn)行通常也不是一項(xiàng)零成本的冒險(xiǎn)。最佳實(shí)踐實(shí)際上對(duì)于特定組織而言非常復(fù)雜，甚至對(duì)于每個(gè)應(yīng)用程序或一組應(yīng)用程序都各不相同，并且我們對(duì)云進(jìn)行重新設(shè)計(jì)的次數(shù)越多，就越發(fā)能夠提高系統(tǒng)可靠性并降低成本。
Third, and very related, is that there is still much to learn about the right way to build and run systems in the cloud. Many organizations are discovering that “being in the cloud” hasn’t helped them cope with the surge in demand from the pandemic and associated lockdowns and hasn’t helped them release new features faster. Cloud architecture is a difficult new field of expertise and teams need to learn how to deploy, evolve, maintain and improve their cloud-based systems. This is something that takes time and much more thought than “just throw the stuff on Amazon.”
第三同樣與之相關(guān)的是，關(guān)于在云中構(gòu)建和運(yùn)行系統(tǒng)的正確方法仍有很多知識(shí)要學(xué)習(xí)。許多組織發(fā)現(xiàn)“云上開發(fā)”并不能幫助他們應(yīng)對(duì)由疫情和相關(guān)的關(guān)閉政策引起的需求激增，也不能幫助他們更快地發(fā)布新功能。云架構(gòu)是一個(gè)很復(fù)雜的新的專業(yè)領(lǐng)域，團(tuán)隊(duì)需要學(xué)習(xí)如何部署、擴(kuò)展、維護(hù)和改進(jìn)其基于云的系統(tǒng)。這比“只要把東西扔到亞馬遜上”要花費(fèi)時(shí)間和更多的思考。
Semantic diffusion keeps diffusing
語義的擴(kuò)散仍在蔓延
Without meaning to sound too much like an old man yelling at clouds, I have to point out that the industry continues to adopt and misuse terms that have specific meanings. I’ve long been annoyed with developers using “refactoring” to mean “fixing something” and today we see more of the same with terms such as “CI/CD” (those are two different things!), “DevOps” (no, please don’t build a “DevOps team”), “microservices” (that’s different from SOA how?) and “as code” (that’s how you would treat your code?).
我沒有必要讓自己聽起來像個(gè)在空中咆哮的老人，但我必須指出，業(yè)內(nèi)仍然在持續(xù)地濫用具有特定含義的術(shù)語。長期以來，我一直對(duì)開發(fā)人員使用“重構(gòu)”來表示“修復(fù)某些問題”感到惱火，而現(xiàn)在我們還看到了“ CI / CD”（這是兩個(gè)不同的東西！），“ DevOps”（請(qǐng)不要建立“ DevOps團(tuán)隊(duì)”），“microservices”（與SOA有何不同？）和“as code”（即如何對(duì)待代碼？）諸如此類。
Today’s most meaning-free term is probably “digital transformation” which, depending on who’s using it, can mean any one of the following:
Improving digital literacy for employees
Better tools for collaboration, such as Zoom, Teams, Trello and Slack
Agile IT, or
Holistic transformation of the business leveraging the power of technology to create more value for customers and respond to rapid changes in the competitive landscape
當(dāng)下最無意義的術(shù)語可能是“數(shù)字化（轉(zhuǎn)型）”，具體取決于誰使用它，它可以表示以下任何一種：
提高員工的數(shù)字素養(yǎng)
使用更好的協(xié)作工具，例如Zoom，Teams，Trello和Slack
實(shí)行敏捷IT
利用技術(shù)的力量對(duì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行整體轉(zhuǎn)型，以為客戶創(chuàng)造更多價(jià)值并應(yīng)對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局的快速變化
The last one is my preferred definition, and the one on which I and two colleagues co-authored a book. There’s nothing wrong with a narrower definition, but given that organizations may be investing significant sums in a digital transformation effort, it’s important to be clear about the goals and what success will look like. Especially with popular industry buzzwords it’s worth taking some extra time to explore and verify that everyone in a conversation has the same idea in mind.
最后是我對(duì)“數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型”最推薦的定義，也是我和兩個(gè)同事共同撰寫的一本書。狹義的定義并沒有錯(cuò)，但是鑒于組織可能會(huì)在數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型方面投入大量資金，因此必須明確目標(biāo)和定義成功，這一點(diǎn)很重要。尤其是使用流行的行業(yè)術(shù)語時(shí)，值得花一些時(shí)間來探索和驗(yàn)證對(duì)話中的每個(gè)人是否都對(duì)其持有相同的理解。
I hope you’ve enjoyed this round up of trends within the tech industry, and that you are staying safe and healthy. I’d like to thank Andy Yates, Fausto de la Torres, Gareth Morgan, Kief Morris and Rebecca Parsons for their suggestions on drafts of this article
希望你喜歡科技行業(yè)的最新趨勢(shì)，并平穩(wěn)度過這次疫情。我要感謝Andy Yates，F(xiàn)austo de la Torres，Gareth Morgan，Kief Morris和Rebecca Parsons對(duì)本文草案的建議。**
