1. This man is holding a piece of fruit in his hand.

2. The piece of fruit is either an orange or an apple.

3. We can’t see which it is because we can’t see inside the box.

4. The probability that it is an orange is equal to the probability that it is an apple.

5. It may be an apple, and it may be an orange.

6. It’s got to be one or the other.

7. It can’t be anything else.

8. Now let’s look at it from the man’s point of view.

9. From his point of view, the probabilities are different.

10. From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%.

11. That’s because he knows what he has.

12. For him there is no uncertainty.

13. If he has an orange, the probability is 100%.

14. If he doesn’t have an orange, the probability is 0%.?

15. He either has it or he doesn’t.

16. From our point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 50%.

17. From his point of view, the probability that he has an orange is 100% or 0%.

18. So the probability depends on your point of view.