自己在閱讀Ray Dalio的時(shí)候發(fā)現(xiàn),自己的英語思維并沒有形成,閱讀原版更多的陷入到與英語搏斗的陷阱里面,對于學(xué)習(xí)原則本身幫助不是很大,自己面對中文會(huì)理解更為深入。
我想很多人都會(huì)面對這樣的問題,所以我想我把它翻譯成為中文豈不是可以讓很多小伙伴受益。翻譯當(dāng)中有個(gè)人的理解偏差,所以我把原版也放出來,如果有理解上的困惑大家也可以參照原文。
我不在意有沒有其他中譯本,因?yàn)檫@件事對我來說有很多好處,如果對你也有一丁點(diǎn)兒好處,那就太好了。
這次發(fā)布的不是文章的開頭,因?yàn)槠鸪醯姆g有很多的隨意的地方,我會(huì)修改后陸續(xù)放出。
Part 2: My Most Fundamental Life Principles
我基本的生活原則:
Time is like a river that will take you forward into encounters with reality that will require you to make decisions. You can’t stop the movement down this river, and you can’t avoid the encounters. You can only approach these encounters in the best way possible.That is what this part is all about.
時(shí)間就像一條永不停息的河流總是讓你面對現(xiàn)實(shí)的遭遇時(shí)做出抉擇。你不能夠阻止時(shí)間的流逝,你也不能避免生活中的各種遭遇。你唯一能做的是通過最好的方式去處理這些遭遇。那就是這一章的主題。
Where I’m Coming From
Since we are all products of our genes and our environments and approach the world with biases, I think it is relevant for me to tell you a bit of my background so that you can know where I’m coming from.
我從哪里來。因?yàn)槲覀兌际腔蚝铜h(huán)境的產(chǎn)物,所以我們帶著偏見去接近世界,我想告訴你一些我的背景是很有意義的,這樣你就可以知道我來自哪里了。(這一段翻譯的極為糟糕)
I grew up in a middle-class neighborhood on Long Island, the only son of a jazz musician and a stay-at- home mom. I was a very ordinary kid, and a less-than-ordinary student. I liked playing with my friends— for example, touch football in the street—and I didn't like the school part of school, partly because I had, and still have, a bad rote memory4 and partly because I couldn’t get excited about forcing myself to remember what others wanted me to remember without understanding what all this work was going to get me.
我出生于長島的一個(gè)中產(chǎn)家庭,我的爸爸是爵士樂演奏家,媽媽是家庭主婦。我事一個(gè)天子普通的孩子,我喜歡和我餓的小伙伴們一起玩耍,但是我不喜歡上學(xué),因?yàn)閷W(xué)校的死記硬背給我留下了不好的印象。我很討厭別人強(qiáng)加于讓我,在不明就里的情況下學(xué)習(xí)知識。
In order to be motivated, I needed to work for what I wanted, not for what other people wanted me to do. And in order to be successful, I needed to figure out for myself how to get what I wanted, not remember the facts I was being told to remember.
為了生活的更為積極,我不會(huì)按照別人編寫的劇本去工作,而是按照自己的想法去工作。為了取得成功,我需要自己找到成功的方法,而不是聽從別人的意見去背誦一些教條。
One thing I wanted was spending money. So I had a newspaper route, I mowed lawns, I shoveled the snow off driveways, I washed dishes in a restaurant, and, starting when I was 12 years old, I caddied.
有一件事讓我念念不忘,就是增加自己的零用錢。因此我開始了送報(bào)紙,刈草坪,在馬路上鏟積雪,在餐館里洗盤子,12歲那年我開始當(dāng)球童。
It was the 1960s. At the time the stock market was booming and everyone was talking about it, especially the people I caddied for. So I started to invest. The first stock I bought was a company called Northeast Airlines, and the only reason I bought it was that it was the only company I had heard of that was trading for less than $5 per share, so I could buy more shares, which I figured was a good thing. It went up a lot. It was about to go broke but another company acquired it, so it tripled.
1960年,股市一片繁榮,每個(gè)人都在談?wù)摴墒?,尤其是被我提供撿球服?wù)的主顧。因此,我開始了投資。我購買的第一支股票是一家稱為東北航空的公司。我購買這家公司的唯一原因是,這是我所知道的股價(jià)低于5美元唯一一家公司,因?yàn)槲铱梢再I到更多的份額,我認(rèn)為這是一件好事。當(dāng)這家公司快要倒閉的時(shí)候,另外一家公司收購了它,就這樣這只股票翻了三倍。
I made money because I was lucky, though I didn’t see it that way then. I figured that this game was easy. After all, with thousands of companies listed in the newspaper, how difficult could it be to find at least one that would go up? By comparison to my other jobs, this way of making money seemed much more fun, a lot easier, and much more lucrative. Of course, it didn’t take me long to lose money in the markets and learn about how difficult it is to be right and the costs of being wrong.
這次的賺錢經(jīng)歷純屬運(yùn)氣,但是當(dāng)時(shí)我不那樣想。我認(rèn)為這個(gè)賺錢游戲如此簡單。畢竟,成百上千的公司擺在你面前,從中撈出來一支能夠賺錢的是多么的不容易。跟其他工作相比較,這種賺錢方式顯得更為有趣,也更為簡單,而且還利潤豐厚。好景不長,不長時(shí)間我就在股市里賠錢了。這時(shí)才發(fā)現(xiàn),股市中賺錢的不易和股市中的學(xué)費(fèi)還是極其昂貴的。
So what I really wanted to do now was beat the market. I just had to figure out how to do it. The pursuit of this goal taught me:
因此我發(fā)自內(nèi)心的想戰(zhàn)勝市場。我必須知道如何去做
- It isn't easy for me to be confident that my opinions are right. In the markets, you can do a huge amount of work and still be wrong.
在股票市場里即使你做了很多準(zhǔn)備,你又可能還是錯(cuò)的。所以,在股市里建立自信對我來說是非常困難的。
- Bad opinions can be very costly. Most people come up with opinions and there’s no cost to them. Not so in the market. This is why I have learned to be cautious. No matter how hard I work, I really can’t be sure.
在股票市場里錯(cuò)誤的決定是非常昂貴的。很多人做了非常多的決定,但是這些決定并不會(huì)有太多經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的損失。在股票市場里,這會(huì)大不一樣。無論你如何努力工作,我還是不能篤行我是正確的。這就是我在股票市場里如此謹(jǐn)慎的原因。
- The consensus is often wrong, so I have to be an independent thinker. To make any money, you have to be right when they’re wrong.
即使那些大家一致看好的事情常常也是錯(cuò)的,我必須成為一個(gè)獨(dú)立思考者。如果想賺錢,你必須在別人犯錯(cuò)的時(shí)候做出正確的決定。
So ...
...1) I worked for what I wanted, not for what others wanted me to do. For that reason, I never felt that I had to do anything. All the work I ever did was just what I needed to do to get what I wanted. Since I always had the prerogative to not strive for what I wanted, I never felt forced to do anything.
1)我為我自己的想法工作,而不是在別人的強(qiáng)迫下工作。由于這個(gè)原因,我從來沒有被迫做一些事情。所有的工作都是自己計(jì)劃,然后去取得預(yù)想的結(jié)果。當(dāng)然我也有很高的自主權(quán)放棄自己要做的事,反正我從來不被迫的做一些事情。
...2) I came up with the best independent opinions I could muster to get what I wanted. For example, when I wanted to make money in the markets, I knew that I had to learn about companies to assess the attractiveness of their stocks. At the time, Fortune magazine had a little tear-out coupon that you could mail in to get the annual reports of any companies on the Fortune 500, for free. So I ordered all the annual reports and worked my way through the most interesting ones and formed opinions5 about which companies were exciting.
2)如果我想在某個(gè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)擁有獨(dú)立思考能力,我就必須成為該領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的專家。舉例來說,當(dāng)我想在股票市場上賺錢的時(shí)候,我就必須學(xué)習(xí)如何評估我感興趣的公司的股票。在那個(gè)時(shí)候,財(cái)富雜志有一項(xiàng)優(yōu)惠活動(dòng)。如果你發(fā)郵件給他們,你就可以免費(fèi)獲得任意500強(qiáng)公司的年報(bào)。因此我就訂閱了所有公司的年報(bào),并且以我的方式研究我所感興趣的公司。
...3) I stress-tested my opinions by having the smartest people I could find challenge them so I could find out where I was wrong.6 I never cared much about others’ conclusions—only for the reasoning that led to these conclusions. That reasoning had to make sense to me. Through this process, I improved my chances of being right, and I learned a lot from a lot of great people.
3)通過壓力測試檢驗(yàn)自己的想法。我盡可能的找一些精英人士,通過質(zhì)疑他們來發(fā)現(xiàn)我錯(cuò)在哪里。我從不在乎別人的結(jié)論,但我非常在意這些結(jié)論的推理過程。這些推理過程對我來說意義重大。通過這個(gè)過程,我增加了我的準(zhǔn)確率,同時(shí)也從精英人士哪里學(xué)到了不少。
...4) I remained wary about being overconfident, and I figured out how to effectively deal with my not knowing. I dealt with my not knowing by either continuing to gather information until I reached the point that I could be confident or by eliminating my exposure to the risks of not knowing.7
4)我持續(xù)的警惕過分的自信。我認(rèn)識到如何有效的面對未知的領(lǐng)域。面對我未知的領(lǐng)域要么從各種渠道收集信息,直到我覺得自己變得有信心,要么我就盡力避免將自己暴露在各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中。
...5) I wrestled with my realities, reflected on the consequences of my decisions, and learned and improved from this process.
5)我不斷和現(xiàn)實(shí)做斗爭,從我的決策之中獲得想要的結(jié)果,從不斷面對現(xiàn)實(shí)的過程中學(xué)習(xí)和改進(jìn)。
By doing these things, I learned how important and how liberating it is to think for myself.
通過這些事情,我學(xué)習(xí)到獨(dú)立思考的重要性,獨(dú)立思考也更能夠解放思想。
In a nutshell, this is the whole approach that I believe will work best for you—the best summary of what I want the people who are working with me to do in order to accomplish great things. I want you to work for yourself, to come up with independent opinions, to stress-test them, to be wary about being overconfident, and to reflect on the consequences of your decisions and constantly improve.
After I graduated from high school, I went to a local college that I barely got in to. I loved it, unlike high school, because I could learn about things that interested me; I studied because I enjoyed it, not because I had to.
簡而言之,這是一條我認(rèn)為對你非常有效的路,也是我想告訴與我一起共事完成非凡事情的人的高度總結(jié)。我希望你們能夠獨(dú)立思考,然后對它們進(jìn)行壓力測試,警惕過分自信,時(shí)刻留意你所做的決定產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果,最后要不斷持續(xù)的改進(jìn)它。高中畢業(yè)后,我費(fèi)了九牛二虎之力才進(jìn)入當(dāng)?shù)氐囊凰宜鶋裘乱郧蟮膶W(xué)校。我非常喜歡這所學(xué)校,和高中不一樣,因?yàn)槲夷軌驅(qū)W習(xí)我所感興趣的知識;我學(xué)習(xí)我喜歡,而不是被迫學(xué)習(xí)。
At that time the Beatles had made a trip to India to learn how to meditate, which triggered my interest, so Ilearned how to meditate. It helped me think more clearly and creatively, so I’m sure that enhanced my enjoyment of, and success at, learning.8 Unlike in high school, in college I did very well.
在那個(gè)時(shí)候Beatles專程前往印度學(xué)習(xí)如何“冥想”,這激發(fā)了我的興趣。因此,我也開始學(xué)習(xí)如何冥想。冥想幫助我思考的更清晰和更有創(chuàng)造力。我非常確信他提高了我學(xué)習(xí)的能力和思考的質(zhì)量。在這一點(diǎn)上,我在大學(xué)做的很好。
And of course I continued to trade markets. Around this time I became interested in trading commodities futures, though virtually nobody traded them back then. I was attracted to trading them just because theyhad low margin requirements so I figured I could make more money by being right (which I planned tobe).
當(dāng)然我也繼續(xù)活躍在交易市場上。在這個(gè)時(shí)間段,我被期貨市場深深的吸引,而其他一些人則已經(jīng)出局。期貨市場吸引我的地方在于,我只需要支付很低的交易保證金,這樣我可以依據(jù)我的判斷賺更多的錢。
By the time I graduated college, in 1971, I had been admitted to Harvard Business School, where I wouldgo in the fall. That summer between college and HBS I clerked on the floor of the New York StockExchange. This was the summer of the breakdown of the global monetary system (i.e., the BrettonWoods system). It was one of the most dramatic economic events ever and I was at the epicenter of it, so it thrilled me. It was a currency crisis that drove all market behaviors, so I delved into understanding thecurrency markets. The currency markets would be important to me for the rest of my life.
1971年夏天,我被HBS錄取。在未到HBS報(bào)道之前,我成為了紐交所的一名實(shí)習(xí)交易員。那個(gè)夏天,全球貨幣體市場發(fā)生振蕩。那是一次非常喜劇性的經(jīng)濟(jì)事件,我恰巧在EPI 中心,這件事激發(fā)了我的好奇心。那是一次貨幣領(lǐng)域的危機(jī),它影響了所有人的市場交易行為,因此我又深入研究了貨幣市場。貨幣市場在我后來的投資中具有深遠(yuǎn)的影響。
That fall I went to Harvard Business School, which I was excited about because I felt that I had climbed tothe top and would be with the best of the best. Despite these high expectations, the place was evenbetter than I expected because the case study method allowed open-ended figuring things out anddebating with others to get at the best answers, rather than memorizing facts. I loved the work-hard, play-hard environment.
那年秋天我進(jìn)入了HBS,對于我能夠成為HBS精英中的一員我感到非常自豪。雖然我預(yù)想了很多種可能,實(shí)際上我還是低估了HBS的魅力。因?yàn)檎n程容許大家開放的思考,為了得到最好結(jié)論我們可以相互爭論和碰撞,而不是像機(jī)器一樣死記硬背。我真的好喜歡這種努力鉆研的氛圍。
In the summer between my two years at HBS, I pursued my interest in trading commodities futures byconvincing the Director of Commodities for Merrill Lynch to give me a job as his assistant. At the time,commodities trading was still an obscure thing to do.
在HBS的第二年,我說服了期貨市場的專家Merrill給了非??释闹砉ぷ鳌T谀莻€(gè)時(shí)候,期貨交易市場依然是一個(gè)偏門的存在。
In the fall I went back to HBS, and in that academic year, 1972-73, trading commodities futures became ahot thing to do. That is because the monetary system’s breakdown that occurred in 1971 led to an inflationary surge that sent commodity prices higher. As a result of this, the first oil shock occurred in1973. As inflation started to surge, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy to fight it, so stocks went down in the worst bear market since the Great Depression.
1972-1973年,期貨市場成為一個(gè)熱炒的市場。由于1971年金融系統(tǒng)的崩潰,引發(fā)了通貨膨脹的蔓延最終導(dǎo)致期貨市場價(jià)格飆升。最終在1973年導(dǎo)致了石油危機(jī)。隨著通貨膨脹的蔓延,聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)實(shí)行了緊縮的貨幣政策對抗通脹,因此股票市場開始了大蕭條以后的最嚴(yán)重熊市。
So, commodities futures trading was hot and stock market investing was not. Naturally, brokerage houses that didn’t have commodities trading departments wanted them, and there was a shortage of people who knew anything about it. Virtually nobody in the commodities futures business had the type of Harvard Business School background that I had.
因此,期貨市場交易似火而股票市場則平淡如水。自然的,那些沒有期貨交易部門的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司希望建立這樣的部門,與之相對真正了解期貨市場的人少之又少。事實(shí)上,沒有人像我一樣既了解期貨市場又擁有HBS學(xué)校的教育背景。
So I was hired as Director of Commodities at a moderate-size brokerage and given an old salt who had lots of commodities brokerage experience to help me set up a commodities division. The bad stock market environment ended up taking this brokerage house down before we could get the commodities futures trading going. I went to a bigger, more successful brokerage, where I was in charge of its institutional/hedging business. But I didn’t fit into the organization well, so I was fired essentially for insubordination.
因此,我擁有了在一家中等規(guī)模的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司擔(dān)任負(fù)責(zé)任的機(jī)會(huì),并有一位富有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的老油條協(xié)助我建立部門。糟糕的股票行情讓這家經(jīng)紀(jì)公司關(guān)門的速度快過了我籌建期貨部門速度,公司破產(chǎn)了。我前往了一家更大的經(jīng)紀(jì)公司負(fù)責(zé)行政工作。由于我不能很好的融入公司,最終因違抗命令而被開除。
So in 1975, after a quick two-year stint on Wall Street after school, I started Bridgewater. Soon after, I got married and began my family.
到了1975年,經(jīng)過兩年的華爾街大學(xué)的歷練,我開始了橋水資本的運(yùn)營。很快,我結(jié)婚組建了自己的家庭。
Through this time and till now I followed the same basic approach I used as a 12-year-old caddie trying tobeat the market, i.e., by 1) working for what I wanted, not for what others wanted me to do; 2)coming up with the best independent opinions I could muster to move toward my goals; 3) stress-testing my opinions by having the smartest people I could find challenge them so I could find outwhere I was wrong; 4) being wary about overconfidence, and good at not knowing; and 5)wrestling with reality, experiencing the results of my decisions, and reflecting on what I did to produce them so that I could improve.
在那段時(shí)間直到現(xiàn)在,我都遵守著與12歲時(shí)想要打敗市場的相同準(zhǔn)則。
1.做我想做,絕不被動(dòng)接受任務(wù)。
2.獨(dú)立思考,并找到直達(dá)目的的方法。
3.挑戰(zhàn)牛人,用壓力測試矯正自己的想法。
4.警惕過分自信。
5.不斷通過現(xiàn)實(shí)打磨自己的想法,總結(jié)這些想法產(chǎn)生的源頭和如何改進(jìn)它們。
By the way, I still meditate and I still find it helpful.
順便說一句,我還在冥想,它依然很有效果。