A classic one of those is an unsustainable rate of debt growth that supports the buying of investment assets; it drives asset prices up, which leads people to believe that borrowing and buying those investment assets is a good thing to do.
其中一個(gè)典型的是不可持續(xù)的債務(wù)增長(zhǎng)率，支持購(gòu)買(mǎi)投資資產(chǎn);它推動(dòng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲，這使人們相信借貸和購(gòu)買(mǎi)這些投資資產(chǎn)是一件好事。
Identify the paradigm you’re in, examine if and how it is unsustainable, and visualize how the paradigm shift will transpire when that which is unsustainable stops.
確定你所處的范式，檢查它是否以及如何不可持續(xù)，并想象當(dāng)不可持續(xù)的范圍停止時(shí)，范式轉(zhuǎn)變將如何發(fā)生。
I have found that the consensus view is typically more heavily influenced by what has happened relatively recently (i.e., over the past few years) than it is by what is most likely.It tends to assume that the paradigms that have existed will persist and it fails to anticipate the paradigm shifts, which is why we have such big market and economic shifts.These shifts, more often than not, lead to markets and economies behaving more opposite than similar to how they behaved in the prior paradigm.
我發(fā)現(xiàn)，共識(shí)觀(guān)點(diǎn)通常更多地受到相對(duì)近期(即過(guò)去幾年)發(fā)生的事情的影響，而不是最有可能發(fā)生的事情。 它傾向于假設(shè)已經(jīng)存在的范式將會(huì)持續(xù)下去，它沒(méi)有預(yù)見(jiàn)到范式的轉(zhuǎn)變，這就是為什么我們有如此大的市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變。 這些轉(zhuǎn)變往往導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的行為與之前的模式相反，而不是相似。
with debt-financed purchases of stocks and other assets at high prices
債務(wù)融資高價(jià)購(gòu)買(mǎi)股票和其它資產(chǎn)
This debt crisis and plunge in economic activity led to economic depression, which led to aggressive easing by the Fed that consisted of breaking the link to gold, interest rates hitting 0%, the printing of a lot of money, and the devaluing of the dollar, which was accompanied by rises in gold prices, stock prices, and commodity prices from 1932 to 1937.
這場(chǎng)債務(wù)危機(jī)和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的暴跌導(dǎo)致了經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條，這導(dǎo)致了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)積極的寬松政策，包括切斷與黃金的聯(lián)系，利率達(dá)到0% ，大量印刷貨幣，以及伴隨著1932年至1937年黃金價(jià)格、股票價(jià)格和大宗商品價(jià)格上漲的美元貶值。
人民幣對(duì)美元的匯率
That form of easing is approaching its limits because interest rates can’t be lowered much more and quantitative easing is having diminishing effects on the economy and the markets as the money that is being pumped in is increasingly being stuck in the hands of investors who buy other investments with it
這種形式的寬松正在接近其極限，因?yàn)槔什荒茉俅蠓抡{(diào)，而量化寬松對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)的影響正在減弱，因?yàn)樽⑷氲馁Y金越來(lái)越多地被用它購(gòu)買(mǎi)其他投資的投資者所持有
中國(guó)央行貸款基準(zhǔn)利率（1988~2019）
As these forms of easing (i.e., interest rate cuts and QE) cease to work well and the problem of there being too much debt and non-debt liabilities (e.g., pension and healthcare liabilities) remains, the other forms of easing (most obviously, currency depreciations and fiscal deficits that are monetized) will become increasingly likely.
隨著這些形式的寬松(例如，降息和量化寬松)不再有效，而且債務(wù)和非債務(wù)負(fù)債(例如，養(yǎng)老金和醫(yī)療保健負(fù)債)過(guò)多的問(wèn)題依然存在，其他形式的寬松(最明顯的是貨幣貶值和貨幣化的財(cái)政赤字)將變得越來(lái)越可能。
asking yourself who the central bank needs to help most, and figuring out what they are most likely to do given the tools they have at their disposal, you can get at the most likely monetary policy shifts, which are the main drivers of paradigm shifts.
通過(guò)觀(guān)察誰(shuí)擁有什么樣的資產(chǎn)和負(fù)債，問(wèn)問(wèn)自己誰(shuí)是央行最需要幫助的人，并弄清楚他們?cè)诳芍涞墓ぞ呦伦钣锌赡茏鍪裁矗憧梢缘玫阶钣锌赡艿呢泿耪咿D(zhuǎn)變，這是范式轉(zhuǎn)變的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力。
I think these are unlikely to be good real returning investments and that those that will most likely do best will be those that do well when the value of money is being depreciated and domestic and international conflicts are significant.
我認(rèn)為這些不太可能是真正的實(shí)際回報(bào)投資，那些最有可能做得最好的將是那些在貨幣價(jià)值貶值且國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際沖突顯著時(shí)表現(xiàn)良好的投資。
