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這期的標(biāo)題是 -
The death of the internal combustion engine
It had a good run. But the end is in sight for the machine that changed the world
內(nèi)燃機(jī)之死
他曾經(jīng)輝煌，但這個曾經(jīng)改變世界的機(jī)器，末路已經(jīng)隱約可見

“HUMAN inventiveness…h(huán)as still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamented Le Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893. Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July. The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam, petrol, electricity, compressed air and hydraulics. Only 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge crowds. The clear winner was the internal combustion engine. Over the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.
“以人類的創(chuàng)造力...居然至今還未找到能夠代替馬匹推動車輛的方法”, 1893年12月，一家法國的報紙“小日報”遺憾的評論道。這是針對來年7月舉辦的從巴黎到魯昂的非馬拉車比賽，102位參賽車輛，通過蒸汽，汽油，電力，壓縮空氣和水力等等提供動力。最后只有21輛成功的完成了126公里（78英里）的比賽，收到群眾熱切的歡呼。內(nèi)燃機(jī)是明顯的贏家，在下個世紀(jì)他為工業(yè)提供動力，并改變了世界

The big end
But its days are numbered. Rapid gains in battery technology favour electric motors instead . In Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so. Today’s electric cars, powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much better. The Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single charge. UBS, a bank, reckons the “total cost of ownership” of an electric car will reach parity with a petrol one next year—albeit at a loss to its manufacturer. It optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14% of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% today. Others have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 today. Regulations are tightening, too. Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.
華麗的謝幕
內(nèi)燃機(jī)已時日無多。電池科技的迅速發(fā)展反倒讓電動機(jī)受惠不少。1894年的巴黎沒有一輛電動車駛出起跑線，部分原因就是因?yàn)槊咳镆幸粋€基站來換電池?，F(xiàn)如今的電動車，通過鋰電池續(xù)航表現(xiàn)要好太多。雪佛蘭Blot可以跑383公里。特斯拉的粉絲最近通過一次充電，就把Model S開了超過1000公里。UBS銀行表示，電動車的“總擁有成本”明年就可以和汽油車持平，盡管開發(fā)商依舊是虧損的狀態(tài)。它非常樂觀的預(yù)測，到2025年，電動車的銷售占汽車銷售的總體比例會從如今的1%漲到14%。其他人的預(yù)測相對保守，但也認(rèn)為隨車電池越來越廉價和高效，每千瓦時的成本已經(jīng)從2010年的1000美金降到今天的130-200美金。監(jiān)管方面現(xiàn)在也更加嚴(yán)格。上個月英國加入禁燃油汽車國家團(tuán)體，表示到2050年前所有的新車必須實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放

The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long. The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.
從燃油與活塞到電池與電動機(jī)的過渡可能不會有多久。內(nèi)燃機(jī)的第一聲喪鐘已經(jīng)在世界范圍內(nèi)響起，隨之而來的將會是許多讓人樂意看到的影響

To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life. The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through restaurants. Roughly 85% of American workers commute by car. Carmaking was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and elsewhere. There are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil fuels. Though most of them sit idle, America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power stations. The internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.
要看清前方有什么在等著我們，就要考慮內(nèi)燃機(jī)是如何改變現(xiàn)代生活的。 富裕國家為了汽車而重建，大力投資建造公路網(wǎng)，城郊隨之誕生，還有購物中心，和汽車餐廳。大概85%的美國工人用汽車來通勤。汽車制造業(yè)也是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的推進(jìn)器并擴(kuò)大了中產(chǎn)階級的隊(duì)伍。無論是戰(zhàn)后的美國或是其他地方都是這樣?，F(xiàn)在路上大概有10億輛車，幾乎全部是依靠化石燃料推進(jìn)。盡管它們大多數(shù)都處在停止的狀態(tài)，美國的汽車和卡車引擎依舊可以產(chǎn)生發(fā)電廠10倍的能量。內(nèi)燃機(jī)是歷史上當(dāng)之無愧最為強(qiáng)大的動力機(jī)器

But electrification has thrown the car industry into turmoil. Its best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in Germany. Compared with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on wheels. That means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist suppliers. Carworkers at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the chop. With less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will shrink. While today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be unencumbered. Premium brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.
但是電力化給整個汽車工業(yè)帶來動蕩。最好的品牌都是建立在他們的工程技術(shù)傳承之上，尤其是德國。相對于現(xiàn)有的車輛，電動車要簡單很多并且組件也少得多，它更像是架在輪子上的電腦。同時也意味著可以用更少的人來組裝，以及更少的專業(yè)輔助系統(tǒng)。在那些不生產(chǎn)電動車工廠里， 工人擔(dān)心他們可能會被裁掉。隨著故障的減少，保養(yǎng)以及配件市場也會萎縮。當(dāng)前的汽車制造商被遺留下來的老舊的工廠和過剩的勞動力所裹挾，新的參與者卻沒有這些負(fù)擔(dān)。高端品牌也許可以憑借造型和操控依舊搶眼，但是低利潤率的大眾化汽車制造商都不得不靠成本控制來參與競爭

Assuming, of course, that people want to own cars at all. Electric propulsion, along with ride-hailing and self-driving technology, could mean that ownership is largely replaced by “transport as a service”, in which fleets of cars offer rides on demand. On the most extreme estimates, that could shrink the industry by as much as 90%. Lots of shared, self-driving electric cars would let cities replace car parks (up to 24% of the area in some places) with new housing, and let people commute from far away as they sleep—suburbanisation in reverse.
我們假定，沒錯，人們想要擁有汽車。電力推進(jìn)，伴隨著打車服務(wù)以及自動駕駛技術(shù)，也許意味著擁有汽車會被“交通即服務(wù)”所取代，汽車只是在需要時提供出行服務(wù)。在最極端的設(shè)想下，整個汽車行業(yè)規(guī)模會縮水90%。 許多共享的無人駕駛電車可以讓城市把停車場（也一些地方停車場可以占到24%的面積）改成新的住宅，人們可以住的更遠(yuǎn)，在上下班路上睡覺，城市郊區(qū)化的趨勢一下子反了過來

Even without a shift to safe, self-driving vehicles, electric propulsion will offer enormous environmental and health benefits. Charging car batteries from central power stations is more efficient than burning fuel in separate engines. Existing electric cars reduce carbon emissions by 54% compared with petrol-powered ones, according to America’s National Resources Defence Council. That figure will rise as electric cars become more efficient and grid-generation becomes greener. Local air pollution will fall, too. The World Health Organisation says that it is the single largest environmental health risk, with outdoor air pollution contributing to 3.7m deaths a year. One study found that car emissions kill 53,000 Americans each year, against 34,000 who die in traffic accidents.
即便拋開安全和自動駕駛不彈，電力推進(jìn)在環(huán)保和健康方面的益處也是大大的。給汽車電池充電要比引擎燃油高效的多。根據(jù)美國國家資源保護(hù)委員會的說法，目前的電動車可以比汽油車減少54%的碳排放。這個數(shù)據(jù)隨著電動車的更加高效以及電池組的更加環(huán)保會變得更高。本地的空氣污染也會減輕。世界衛(wèi)生組織表示室外空氣污染是最大的環(huán)境健康殺手，每年導(dǎo)致370萬人死亡。一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，汽車排放每年會導(dǎo)致53000名美國人死亡，而死于交通事故的卻只有34000人

Autos and autocracies
And then there is oil. Roughly two-thirds of oil consumption in America is on the roads, and a fair amount of the rest uses up the by-products of refining crude oil to make petrol and diesel. The oil industry is divided about when to expect peak demand; Royal Dutch Shell says that it could be little more than a decade away. The prospect will weigh on prices long before then. Because nobody wants to be left with useless oil in the ground, there will be a dearth of new investment, especially in new, high-cost areas such as the Arctic. By contrast, producers such as Saudi Arabia, with vast reserves that can be tapped cheaply, will be under pressure to get pumping before it is too late: the Middle East will still matter, but a lot less than it did. Although there will still be a market for natural gas, which will help generate power for all those electric cars, volatile oil prices will strain countries that depend on hydrocarbon revenues to fill the national coffers. When volumes fall, the adjustment will be fraught, particularly where the struggle for power has long been about controlling oil wealth. In countries such as Angola and Nigeria where oil has often been a curse, the diffusion of economic clout may bring immense benefits.
汽車與獨(dú)裁
說到石油, 在美國大概三分之二的石油都消費(fèi)在公路上。剩下的也有相當(dāng)一部分被用于加工那些提煉汽油和柴油的副產(chǎn)品。石油產(chǎn)業(yè)對于需求何時見頂產(chǎn)生了分歧。荷蘭皇家殼牌認(rèn)為至少還有10年。在那之前前景將會取決于價格。因?yàn)闆]人想被甩在后面，地里留下一堆沒用的石油。新的投資將會不足，尤其是那些采油成本高的地方，比如北極圈。相反的，那些產(chǎn)油國比如沙特，儲備豐富并且開采成本低，將會因?yàn)闀r間壓力而盡快開采。中東依舊重要，但比起以前已是一落千丈。雖說天然氣市場依舊存在，好用來幫助電動車充電，不穩(wěn)定的油價依舊會讓那些指著碳?xì)浠衔锸杖雭響?yīng)付國家支出的國家鴨梨山大。當(dāng)需求下降時，調(diào)整的過程讓人擔(dān)憂，尤其是那些圍繞著石油控制權(quán)來進(jìn)行權(quán)力斗爭的國家。在一些國家像是安哥拉和尼日利亞，石油已經(jīng)成為一種詛咒。這種對于經(jīng)濟(jì)的打擊說不定反倒是個大的利好。

Meanwhile, a scramble for lithium is under way. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from $4,000 a tonne in 2011 to more than $14,000. Demand for cobalt and rare-earth elements for electric motors is also soaring. Lithium is used not just to power cars: utilities want giant batteries to store energy when demand is slack and release it as it peaks. Will all this make lithium-rich Chile the new Saudi Arabia? Not exactly, because electric cars do not consume it; old lithium-ion batteries from cars can be reused in power grids, and then recycled.
同時，鋰的價格開始攀升。碳酸鋰的價格從2011年的4000美元一噸到現(xiàn)在超過1萬4千美金，對于電動機(jī)需要的鈷和稀土的需求也在猛增。鋰不光被用來給車提供動力：電力公司想要巨型電池以便在電力需求不多的時候存儲電力，然后在用電高峰期時釋放。這會讓鋰存儲量豐富的智利變成下一個沙特阿拉伯么？應(yīng)該不太會，因?yàn)殡妱榆嚥⒉恢苯酉匿?，車上舊的鋰電池可以在電網(wǎng)里再次應(yīng)用，然后回收

The internal combustion engine has had a good run—and could still dominate shipping and aviation for decades to come. But on land electric motors will soon offer freedom and convenience more cheaply and cleanly. As the switch to electric cars reverses the trend in the rich world towards falling electricity consumption, policymakers will need to help, by ensuring that there is enough generating capacity—in spite of many countries’ broken system of regulation. They may need to be the midwives to new rules and standards for public recharging stations, and the recycling of batteries, rare-earth motors and other components in “urban mines”. And they will have to cope with the turmoil as old factory jobs disappear.
內(nèi)燃機(jī)已然輝煌，而且依舊可以統(tǒng)治航運(yùn)和航空業(yè)幾十年。但在陸地上，電動機(jī)很快就可以一更廉價和更環(huán)保的方式提供自由與便利。向電動車的過渡會使得當(dāng)前發(fā)達(dá)國家發(fā)電量下降的趨勢有所扭轉(zhuǎn)，決策者也許需要幫助確保有足夠的發(fā)電能力，盡管許多國家的監(jiān)管并不完善。他們需要為公共充電站的建立，電池，稀土電機(jī)等其他“城市礦山”部件的回收等等推行新的政策和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。他們也不得不應(yīng)對舊工廠關(guān)閉所帶來的失業(yè)問題

Driverless electric cars in the 21st century are likely to improve the world in profound and unexpected ways, just as vehicles powered by internal combustion engines did in the 20th. But it will be a bumpy road. Buckle up.
正如內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車在20世紀(jì)所做的那樣，21世紀(jì)的無人駕駛電動車將會以深遠(yuǎn)的且無法預(yù)料的方式推動世界的發(fā)展。但前路坎坷，還需謹(jǐn)慎。