本期原文選自The Economist 2016-10-08的Leaders板塊文章The road to Brexit，釋義來自牛津高階七版、、元照英美法詞典、Lexisnexis法律詞典、維基百科等資源。如果您也在學(xué)習(xí)The Economist，歡迎訂閱我的文集The Economist，一起學(xué)習(xí)交流。

The road to Brexit

Britain’s prime minister must resist her party’s dangerous instincts

The destination was decided in June, by simple majority: Britain is leaving the European Union. The journey, however, will be complex and perilous, beset【1】 by wrong turnings【2】, chicanes【3】 and elephant traps【4】.

【1】beset 困擾，威脅

【2】turning 轉(zhuǎn)彎處，岔道口

【3】chicane 雙急轉(zhuǎn)彎

【4】elephant trap國際象棋中一種常見的取得先期優(yōu)勢的方法（http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant_Trap）

With 64m Britons in the back seat【5】, perhaps that is why Theresa May has avoided talking about the road ahead. But at the Conservative Party conference this week the new prime minister could delay no longer. In a speech that thrilled party activists, she declared that she will invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty by the end of March, triggering a two-year countdown【6】 that should see Britain leave the union in early 2019. She also hinted that she would be prepared to steer Britain towards a harder sort of Brexit, involving a wide separation of labour, product and financial markets.

Mrs May is at risk of putting her party before her country—with grave consequences. Brexit will determine Britain’s fortunes in the decades to come. If it is to be done at all, it must be done right.

【5】back seat 后座，（比喻）無關(guān)緊要的地位；另一個類似的詞backbencher后座議員；后排議員：在英國議會下議院中政府要員與反對黨的重要人物坐前排的座位，其他地位較低的議員只能坐后排的座位（該釋義來自元照英美法詞典）。

【6】countdown倒計時

Hard, soft or half-baked【7】?

Mrs May faces an inevitable tension. Domestically, if she is not to be overwhelmed by the politics of Europe, as so many Tory prime ministers have been before her, she needs to convince those who voted to leave that their victory will be honoured. That is why her speech conveyed urgency and, when it came to immigration, sovereignty and the jurisdiction of the European court in Luxembourg, she took a hard line【8】.

【7】half-baked 本義是半熟的，引申為考慮不周的，未完成的；half-baked building 爛尾樓

【8】hard line 強硬政策/態(tài)度（n）；堅定的，有堅定信仰的，近義詞staunch（忠實的，堅定的）；hard liner (n)

hard-line用作形容詞時，近義詞為staunch

In Europe, however, this domestic rhetoric will impede Mrs May’s task of negotiating the best possible form of Brexit. To maximise her bargaining power【9】, Mrs May needs time. To get the best deal, she needs to be flexible on immigration.

【9】bargaining power 議價能力，源于一方可能有的資源和有利條件。例如存在具吸引力的交易選擇、財務(wù)資源、具備一方可有的良好的洽商技巧及地位（Lexisnexis法律詞典）。

The centrepiece【10】 of the deal ought to be to secure maximum access to Europe’s single market【11】. Brexiteers【12】 say that, once outside, Britain would eventually negotiate low or no tariffs on its trade with the EU. Yet, even if it did, tariffs are less than half the problem. Without harmonised regulations, British firms will discover that their products do not meet European requirements, and vice versa. And it is unlikely that a trade deal between Britain and the EU would cover services, including the financial sort that are among Britain’s biggest exports. A study by the Treasury before the referendum estimated that the hit to GDP within two years of Brexit would be nearly twice as large if Britain left the single market than if it remained a member.

【10】centrepiece 本義是桌子中央的裝飾品，引申義為最重要的事項

【11】single market 單一市場的設(shè)想源于1957年的《羅馬條約》。當(dāng)時，歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人提出要消除“商品、人員、服務(wù)和資本”的自由流動障礙。單一市場的理念構(gòu)成歐盟的貿(mào)易基礎(chǔ)，寫入了1986年單一歐洲法案（Single European Act 1986）。單一市場于1993年1月生效。

【12】Brexiteer或brexiter 主張英國脫歐的人，由Brexit衍生而來；Brexit是Britain和exit的組合，運用了拼綴構(gòu)詞法或混成構(gòu)詞法（Blending），將兩個詞的某一部分合并（例如net+ citizen = netizen 網(wǎng)民），或在一個詞的基礎(chǔ)上加上另一個詞的一部分構(gòu)成新的單詞（例如electronic + mail = email 電子郵件），以這種方法形成的新詞叫做拼綴詞（blend）。

Mrs May seems to want to carve out【13】 a special deal with the EU, in which Britain limits immigration and determines product standards—on, say, food-labelling—while still operating fully in the single market. Perhaps the negotiations will show that this is possible. However, the signs are that she is overestimating the EU’s willingness to give ground【14】. Each country has a veto over Britain’s status (see article). On almost every issue, from immigration to financial services, at least one of them will be reluctant to surrender its advantages.

【13】carve (sth) out 努力獲得，開拓；carve 雕刻

【14】give/lose ground (to sb/sth) 退讓，失利

If that means Mrs May must give ground on immigration, remember that such “concessions” actually benefit Britain. The supply of workers and students from the EU has helped Britain grow faster than any other member state in recent years. To avoid suffocating industry, ministers have already indicated that they may let in financial-services employees, as well as seasonal agricultural workers. There are sure to be more exceptions as bottlenecks emerge.

The second ingredient of a good Brexit is a sensible transition to the new regime—especially if Britain is about to walk away from the single market. The bureaucracy and cost of a sudden imposition of tariffs and non-tariff barriers would lead to a brutal dislocation【15】. Separation from the EU will involve divvying up【16】 EU-owned assets, pensions and much else. Everything from fishing rights to aircraft-landing slots【17】 are agreed on at an EU level; these rules must be redrafted and re-regulated.

【15】dislocation 本義是脫臼，骨頭脫位，引申為擾亂制度、計劃等；dislocate （v）

【16】divvy sth up 分?jǐn)?，分?/p>

【17】 aircraft-landing slot 飛機降落時間表；slot 本義是槽縫，還可指名單、廣播或日程安排中的時間或位置。

Amid the world’s most complex divorce, Britain’s diplomats also have another vital task. Through its membership of the EU, Britain is a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and party to free-trade deals with 53 other countries. When it leaves, it will lose all that. So Britain must urgently prepare to rejoin the WTO as an individual country—which, again, requires the consent of every other member.

Mrs May seemed to acknowledge the benefits of a smooth transition this week. Her proposed “Great Repeal Bill”【18】, which will get rid of all existing EU law from the statute book, will in fact merely translate it into British law, to be chipped away later at leisure if desired. She should likewise negotiate an interim trade deal—through temporary membership of the European Economic Area, say, of which Norway is part. This would mean paying into the EU budget and accepting free movement but, in return, Britain could take as long as it needs to line up【19】 WTO accession and trade agreements with the EU and other countries, while still under the shelter of the single market.

【18】Great Repeal Bill 《大廢除法案》，其將《1972年歐洲共同體法》從英國法令全書（statute book）中刪除。

【19】line sb/sth up 使排成一行，組織、安排活動；line up排隊，站成一排

Ardent Brexiteers worry that, ensconced in such a halfway house, Britain would stay put【20】 for ever. That is indeed a possibility, and there is no reason it should not be: with half the population having voted to Remain and many of those who voted to Leave reluctant to quit the single market, a majority might favour such a “soft” Brexit.

【20】stay put 留在原地不動

Open all hours

The final ingredient of the approach Mrs May put forward was her broad agenda to open Britain to the world beyond the EU—which she calls “Global Britain”. In theory this should entail a willingness to welcome international capital and labour, which would benefit the country whatever its relations with the EU. Sadly, the reality looks less rosy. The home secretary, Amber Rudd, this week complained that some companies were employing too many foreigners and talked about “flushing out【21】” the worst offenders. Likewise, Mrs May’s conference rhetoric was strikingly interventionist, putting the state at the heart of the economy. A flirtation【22】 with industrial policy sounds worryingly as if it is designed to keep foreigners out.

【21】flush sb/sth out (of sth) 驅(qū)趕；flush本身是沖洗，用水沖走

【22】flirtation with sth 一時介入

A Brexit of some sort looms【23】 and Mrs May will determine its course. If Britain is not to suffer a car crash, she must ignore the back-seat drivers and fix her eyes firmly on the road ahead.

【23】 loom 逼近，迫在眉睫

【小結(jié)】

在今年6月份的公投中，脫歐派以多數(shù)票獲勝。以此簡單投票的方式?jīng)Q定了英國未來：脫離歐盟。然而，脫歐之路不僅復(fù)雜多變，危險重重，還可能布滿陷阱（be complex and perilous, beset by wrong turnings, chicanes and elephant traps）。也許是因為考慮到6400萬英國人的想法，梅首相一直對脫歐之路避而不談，但在本周的保守黨會議中已不能再拖延。梅首相宣布三月底前將根據(jù)《歐洲聯(lián)盟條約》第50 條啟動脫歐之前為期兩年的談判（invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty by the end of March, triggering a two-year countdown that should see Britain leave the union （in early 2019））。她在演說中表達(dá)了在移民、主權(quán)和盧森堡歐洲法院司法管轄權(quán)方面的強硬態(tài)度（hard line）。然而，這種論調(diào)對于達(dá)成最佳脫歐方式的談判非常不利。為了強化議價能力（bargaining power），梅首相還需要時間。要想實現(xiàn)最佳結(jié)果，她需要靈活對待移民問題。尋求“最大可能”的歐洲單一市場準(zhǔn)入（maximum access to Europe’s single market）是最重要的途徑（centrepiece）。脫歐派人士（Brexiteers）認(rèn)為，一旦脫離歐盟，最終就能和歐盟達(dá)成較低關(guān)稅或無關(guān)稅。然而，即便如此，還存在比關(guān)稅更重要的問題。沒有協(xié)調(diào)統(tǒng)一的規(guī)定，英國的公司會發(fā)現(xiàn)它們的產(chǎn)品不符合歐洲要求，同樣歐洲的產(chǎn)品也不符合英國的要求。而且，英國和歐盟之間的貿(mào)易協(xié)議不太可能涵蓋金融等服務(wù)。梅首相似乎有些一廂情愿，既想限制移民，又想決定產(chǎn)品標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，還希望充分利用單一市場。也許這根本不可能實現(xiàn)。歐盟不會輕易讓步（give ground）。每個歐盟成員國都有對英國的否決權(quán)。在移民、金融服務(wù)等方方面面的問題上，至少有一個成員國不愿意放棄自己的有利地位。梅首相必須在移民問題上做出讓步，但這種讓步實際上對英國有利。脫歐的第二種方案是合理過渡到新的體制。官僚主義、征收關(guān)稅和非關(guān)稅貿(mào)易壁壘會導(dǎo)致失序混亂（dislocation）。脫離歐洲還意味著要分享（divvying up）歐洲的財產(chǎn)和養(yǎng)老金等。捕魚權(quán)、飛機降落時間表（aircraft-landing slots）等規(guī)則需要重新撰寫、重新制定。英國還要經(jīng)過每個WTO的同意重新加入WTO。梅首相似乎意識到平緩過渡的必要。她推出《大廢除法案》（Great Repeal Bill），將《1972年歐洲共同體法》從英國法令全書（statute book）中刪除。她還可通過歐經(jīng)濟區(qū)臨時成員國的身份獲得暫行貿(mào)易協(xié)定。通過這種模式，英國要為歐盟預(yù)算支付資金，允許非英國公民自由進(jìn)出英國，但需要等待很長時間加入WTO并與歐盟和其他國家達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議。脫歐派人士擔(dān)心，采取這些過渡辦法，英國可能會一直停留不前（stay put）。這種結(jié)局很有可能出現(xiàn)，因為多數(shù)英國人可能支持“軟脫歐”（“soft” Brexit）。最后一種方法是將英國向全世界開放，也就是她所說的“全球的英國”。理論上，這種方式會歡迎國際資本和勞動力，但現(xiàn)實看起來沒那么樂觀。英國內(nèi)政大臣安布爾·拉德本周表示，有些公司雇傭了太多外國人，他要把這些最差勁的冒犯者驅(qū)趕出去（flushing out）。這種政策介入（flirtation）令人擔(dān)憂。英國脫歐越來越近（looms）,由梅首相決定脫歐路線。如果英國不想遭遇車禍，梅首相必須盯住前方，排除后座議員的干擾。

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