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The recent buds relax and spread

That is the bull case. What of the risks? One is that tighter commodity markets will stymie consumer spending in the rich world by raising prices. But core measures of inflation that strip out volatile things like food and energy costs remain low: no where in the rich world have they reached the 2% rate that is the goal of central banks, the rate seen as necessary for a “normal” cyclical recovery. America is closest to that target; the index preferred by the Fed puts America’s inflation at 1.9%, with the core rate at 1.7%. In Europe the core rate is stuck below 1%, with wage growth of around 1.3% last year; but oil prices have pushed headline inflation back to 2%.

這是樂(lè)觀假設(shè)。有什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn)呢？其中之一是更緊俏的商品市場(chǎng)通過(guò)抬高價(jià)格阻礙富裕國(guó)家的消費(fèi)支出。但去掉糧食和能源成本等波動(dòng)因素后的通脹核心指標(biāo)仍然不高：在富裕國(guó)家中，還沒(méi)有一個(gè)達(dá)到央行制定的2％的目標(biāo)，這個(gè)比率被視為“正?！敝芷谛詮?fù)蘇的必要條件。美國(guó)是最接近該目標(biāo)的國(guó)家; 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)比較推薦的指數(shù)顯示美國(guó)的通脹率為1.9％，核心通脹率為1.7％。在歐洲，核心通脹率保持在1％以下，而去年工資增長(zhǎng)約為1.3％；但油價(jià)推動(dòng)廣義通貨膨脹回到2％的水平。

There is also the risk of expecting too much. A pick-up in global aggregate demand is good news. But growth rates will always be constrained by how fast the workforce can expand and how much extra output can be squeezed from each worker. In lots of places there is scope for jobs growth; but in America, Japan, Germany and Britain the labour market is already quite tight. With America close to full employment, wage growth has picked up to 2.8%, which is consistent with 2% underlying inflation if productivity growth stays around 1%. Pay is growing fastest in less well-paid industries, such as construction,retailing, hospitality and haulage, according to Morgan Stanley, a bank.

也有過(guò)度樂(lè)觀預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。全球總需求回升是好消息。但增長(zhǎng)率總是受到勞動(dòng)力擴(kuò)張速度的限制也受到從每個(gè)工人擠出的額外產(chǎn)出的約束。在很多地方還有就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的空間;但美國(guó)，日本，德國(guó)和英國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)相當(dāng)緊張。隨著美國(guó)接近充分就業(yè)，工資增長(zhǎng)攀升到了2.8％。這和生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)保持在1％左右時(shí)，基本通貨膨脹率為2％的規(guī)律大體一致。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）銀行表示，工資在薪酬不佳的行業(yè)中增長(zhǎng)最快，比如建筑業(yè)，零售業(yè)，酒店管理和運(yùn)輸業(yè)。

Wages might perk up yet more if productivity improved. But the post-crisis slump in productivity growth that has affected both rich and developing countries shows no sign of ending. In America output per hour rose by 1.3% in the year to the final quarter of 2016. Europe has not been able to match even that dismal rate. It would take an astonishing shift in productivity for America’s economy to manage the 4% GDP growth promised by MrTrump. A less fanciful view is that American GDP growth might top 2% this year, a bit better than is expected for Europe. Continued investment, and possibly deregulation, could improve productivity somewhat; but they will not provide a step change. Without one, rich-world interest rates are likely to stay well below the levels that were considered normal before 2007.

如果生產(chǎn)力提高，工資可能會(huì)提升更多。但是，生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)速度在危機(jī)后的急跌已經(jīng)影響到了富裕和發(fā)展中國(guó)家，而且并沒(méi)有結(jié)束的跡象。在美國(guó)，到2016年最后一個(gè)季度，美國(guó)每小時(shí)產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)了1.3％。歐洲甚至無(wú)法和這個(gè)差勁的速度相比。要完成特朗普總統(tǒng)承諾的GDP增長(zhǎng)4％的目標(biāo)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)生產(chǎn)力需要有驚人地轉(zhuǎn)變。一個(gè)不那么奇幻的看法是，今年美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)率可能超過(guò)2％，比歐洲預(yù)期的好一些。持續(xù)的投資，可能放松的管制，有助于提高生產(chǎn)力; 但他們不會(huì)帶來(lái)顯著變化。如果沒(méi)有大的改變，富裕國(guó)家的利率很可能會(huì)保持在遠(yuǎn)低于2007年之前公認(rèn)的正常水平之下。

It is not hard to imagine things that might yet derail the recovery. Though there is a cast-iron consensus that nothing bad will be allowed to happen before the big Communist Party congress in the autumn, China’s growing debt pile could still bring markets tumbling down. Populist victories in Europe’s various elections could bring about a crisis for the euro. Even if they do not, an end to the ECB’s bond-buying programme,which has kept government-borrowing costs at tolerable levels and even allowed a bit of fiscal stimulus to lift the economy, will lay bare the euro’s still-un-fixed structural problems.

不難想象有些事可能會(huì)使經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇脫離軌道。雖然已經(jīng)取得堅(jiān)定不移的共識(shí)，即在秋季大會(huì)之前不會(huì)有什么不好的事情發(fā)生，但中國(guó)不斷增長(zhǎng)的債務(wù)堆積還是可能使市場(chǎng)下滑。歐洲各國(guó)選舉中的民粹主義勝利可能為歐元帶來(lái)危機(jī)。即使這些都沒(méi)發(fā)生，歐洲央行結(jié)束債券購(gòu)買(mǎi)計(jì)劃也將暴露歐元仍未解決的結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題。該計(jì)劃將政府借款成本保持在尚可容忍的水平，甚至允許一些財(cái)政刺激措施來(lái)提升經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The Fed might tighten policy too quickly,driving up the value of the dollar and draining capital (and thus momentum)from a recovery in emerging markets. Or Mr Trump might make good on the repeated threats he made in his campaign to raise import tariffs on countries he considers guilty of unfair trade, thus taking a decisive step away from globalisation just as the world’s main economic blocs are at last starting to get into sync.

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)過(guò)快收緊貨幣政策，推高美元的價(jià)值，并從新興市場(chǎng)的復(fù)蘇中抽離資本（并吸收動(dòng)力）?；蛘咛乩势湛赡軙?huì)兌現(xiàn)他在競(jìng)選中反復(fù)發(fā)出的威脅，對(duì)他認(rèn)為有欺詐行為或不公平貿(mào)易的國(guó)家提高進(jìn)口關(guān)稅，于是正當(dāng)世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體終于開(kāi)始同步復(fù)蘇之時(shí)，采取決定性的步驟遠(yuǎn)離全球化。

These risks are not new or surprising.What brings a freshness to the air is that a cyclical recovery has managed to overcome them. There may actually be some rosebuds to gather, for a while.

這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并不新鮮，也不令人詫異。周期性的復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)克服了這些困難，給空氣中帶來(lái)了勃勃生機(jī)?；蛟S真有些玫瑰花蕾可以采集了，在一段時(shí)間之內(nèi)。