英文早讀第31篇，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。

Dempster is a manufacturer of farm implements and water systems with sales in 1961 of about 9 million. Operations have produced only nominal profits in relation to invested capital during recent years. This reflected a poor management situation, along with a fairly tough industry situation. Presently, consolidated net worth (book value) is about 4.5 million, or 75 per share, consolidated working capital about 50 per share, and at yearend we valued our interest at 35 per share. While I claim no oracular vision in a matter such as this, I feel this is a fair valuation to both new and old partners. Certainly, if even moderate earning power can be restored, a higher valuation will be justified, and even if it cannot, Dempster should work out at a higher figure. Our controlling interest was acquired at an average price of about 28, and this holding currently represents 21% of partnership net assets based on the 35 value.
鄧普斯特是一家農(nóng)場器械和灌溉系統(tǒng)生產(chǎn)商，在1961年銷售額大約900萬美金。相比于這些年的投資金額，運作產(chǎn)生了很小的利潤。這反映了糟糕的管理狀況，同時處于相當難搞的工業(yè)領域?，F(xiàn)在，他的歸總凈資產(chǎn)（賬簿價值）大約450萬美金，或者每股75美元，歸總運營資產(chǎn)大約每股50美金，在年末我們評估了我們的權益在每股35美金。盡管我宣稱在像這類事情上沒有上帝視角，我也感覺這是對新老合伙人都公平的估值。當然，如果當前盈利水平可以被修復更高的估值將會修正，即使沒有，鄧普斯特也會呈現(xiàn)更好的數(shù)據(jù)。我們控股的權益以平均28美金價格獲取，以基于當前每股35美金價值，這些持股現(xiàn)在占合伙基金凈資產(chǎn)的21%。

Of course, this section of our portfolio is not going to be worth more money merely because General Motors, U.S. Steel, etc., sell higher. In a raging bull market, operations in control situations will seem like a very difficult way to make money, compared to just buying the general market. However, I am more conscious of the dangers presented at current market levels than the opportunities. Control situations, along with work-outs, provide a means of insulating a portion of our portfolio from these dangers.
當然，我們的這筆投資不會值更多錢，僅僅因為通用汽車，美國鋼鐵等等賣的更高。在一個猛烈的牛市，控股類型的運作相比于僅僅購買一般股票很難賺錢。然而，我更加關心的是當前市場水平呈現(xiàn)的風險而不是機會?？毓汕闆r，也包括套利類，為我們的投資組合避免這些危險提供了方法。

The question of Conservatism
關于保守主義的問題

The above description of our various areas of operation may provide some clues as to how conservatively our portfolio is invested. Many people some years back thought they were behaving in the most conservative manner by purchasing medium or long-term municipal or government bonds. This policy has produced substantial market depreciation in many cases, and most certainly has failed to maintain or increase real buying power.
以上這些不同運作范疇的描述或許提供了一些關于我們的投資組合如何被保守投資的線索。一些年以前，很多人認為他們最保守的方式是購買中型或長期的地方性或國家債券。這個策略在很多情況下產(chǎn)生了巨大的市場貶值，大部分都無法維持或提高實際購買力。

Conscious, perhaps overly conscious, of inflation, many people now feel that they are behaving in a conservative manner by buying blue chips securities almost regardless of price-earnings ratios, dividend yields, etc. Without the benefit of hindsight as ill the bond example, I feel this course of action is fraught with danger. There is nothing at all conservative, in my opinion, about speculating as to just how high a multiplier a greedy and capricious public will put on earnings.
擔心，或許過度擔心通脹，很多人現(xiàn)在感覺通過購買藍籌股是保守的，幾乎不管不顧價格盈利比，分紅水平等等。拋開像糟糕的債券投資例子教訓后的收益外，我認為這系列行為充滿風險。這一點都不保守，在我看來，關于僅僅推測一個貪婪的變化無常的公開市場能夠翻幾倍來推算利潤。

You will not be right simply because a large number of people momentarily agree with you. You will not be right simply because important people agree with you. In many quarters the simultaneous occurrence of the two factors is enough to make a course of action meet the test of conservatism.
你不會僅僅因為大量人當前同意你而正確。你也不會僅僅因為重要的人同意你而正確。在很多情況下，這兩個因素同時發(fā)生就足夠使人感覺行為復合保守主義的測試了。

You will be right, over the course of many transactions, if your hypotheses are correct, your facts are correct, and your reasoning is correct. True conservatism is only possible through knowledge and reason.
你將是正確的，通過一些列交易，如果你的假設是正確的，如果你的要素是正確的，如果你的推論是正確的。真正的保守主義只有通過常識和推論才是唯一可能的。

I might add that in no way dose the fact that our portfolio is not conventional prove that we are more conservative or less conservative than standard methods of investing. This can only be determined by examining the methods or examining the results.
我或許會加上就因為我們的投資組合是非常規(guī)就證明我們相比于標準投資方法更保守或者更不保守是走不通的。這僅能夠通過檢測我們的方法和我們的結(jié)果來決定。

I feel the most objective test as to just how conservative our manner of investing is arises through evaluation of performance in down markets. Preferably these should involve a substantial decline in the Dow. Our performance in the rather mild declines of 1957 and 1960 would confirm my hypothesis that we invest in an extremely conservative manner. I would welcome any partner's suggesting objective tests as to conservatism to see how we stack up. We have never suffered a realized loss of more than 0.5% of 1% of total net assets, and our ratio of total dollars of realized gains to total realized losses is something like 100 to 1. Of course; this reflects the fact that on balance we have been operating in an up market. However, there have been many opportunities for loss transactions even in markets such as these (you may have found out about a few of these yourselves) so I think the above facts have some significance.
我認為關于我們的投資行為多保守最客觀的測試是在估值下降的市場如何上漲。最好能包含道瓊斯指數(shù)的大幅下降。在相較溫和下降的1957年和1960年，我們的表現(xiàn)證明了我的推測，我們的投資是極其保守的行為。我歡迎任何合伙人建議關于我們的保守主義如何立的住腳的測試。我們從來沒有遭受過多于凈資產(chǎn)0.5%或1%的實現(xiàn)損失，同時我們實現(xiàn)的獲益美金和損失美金比例似乎是100比1。當然，這也反映了一個事實，我們在一個上漲的市場也能夠相對平衡。然而，有非常多虧損交易的機會即使在這樣的市場（你或許都能從你們自己身上找到幾例），因此我認為上面這些方面是有分量的。

46.implement：實施；施行；貫徹；工具；器具；簡單的戶外工具
47.nominal：名義上的；名詞的；象征性的；很小的
48.consolidated：加固的；統(tǒng)一的
49.book value：（公司資產(chǎn)的）賬面價值
50.oracular：神諭般的；天書般的；高深莫測的
51.raging：嚴重的；很嚴重的；很痛苦的
52.conservatism：保守主義；保守；守舊
53.municipal：市政的；城市的；地方性的；地區(qū)的；內(nèi)政的；地方政府的
54.depreciation：折舊；貶值；跌價；磨損；低估；藐視
55.conscious：有意識地；有意的；慎重的；特別感興趣的
56.insulate：使隔熱；使絕緣；隔離；使隔音；使免受；使免除
57.overly：過于；十分；很
58.inflation：通貨膨脹；充氣；通脹率
59.yield：產(chǎn)量；產(chǎn)出；利潤；出產(chǎn)
60.hindsight：事后聰明
61.ill：生病的；不健康的；不良的；不吉利的
62.fraught：充滿的；伴隨的；憂慮的；憂傷的；滿載的；裝備的
63.speculate：推測；猜測；投機；推斷；做投機買賣
64.multiplier：乘數(shù)；倍數(shù)
65.greedy：貪婪的；貪心的；渴望的
66.capricious：反復無常的；任性的；多變的；變化無常的
67.momentarily：立刻；馬上；短促的；片刻的
68.simultaneous：同時的；同步的；同時發(fā)生的
69.hypothesis：假設；猜測
70.conventional：常規(guī)的；傳統(tǒng)的；習慣的；墨守成規(guī)的；依照慣例的
71.objective：客觀的；客觀存在的；基于事實的；就事論事的
72.preferable：更好的；更可取的；略勝一籌的
73.mild：溫和的；輕微的；和善的；不強烈的；不嚴厲的
74.stack up：比較；比高低；站得住腳；符合預期；爭勝負