本文英文版于2016年9月26日發(fā)表于一財(cái)全球。為便于閱讀，以下先展示中文翻譯，英文原文在中文之后哦。
This article was published by YiCai Global on Sep. 26, please find the English version after Chinese.
今年9月杭州G20 會(huì)議期間，印尼通信技術(shù)部長(zhǎng)魯?shù)习菜?Rudiantara)任命馬云為其十名電子商務(wù)發(fā)展顧問之一。該職務(wù)工作內(nèi)容尚未確定，但不論如何，馬云毫無疑問將為印尼擴(kuò)展電商版圖作出貢獻(xiàn)。
已經(jīng)有不少評(píng)論者提出這會(huì)造成雙方利益沖突。2016年5月，阿里巴巴集團(tuán)對(duì)東南亞開展了大額投資，其中包括Lazada。然而根據(jù)Bain & Company的最新調(diào)研“東南亞是否能如期發(fā)揮其電商潛力”表明，目前尚無一家電商平臺(tái)在印尼的市場(chǎng)份額超過20%以上，且還有許多國際電商平臺(tái)計(jì)劃在印尼開設(shè)分公司－如亞馬遜計(jì)劃對(duì)該市場(chǎng)投資6億美金?？梢?，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)非常激烈。
利益沖突并不是關(guān)鍵，事實(shí)是對(duì)馬云的任命體現(xiàn)了中國的電商模式正在成為中國新的“出口產(chǎn)品”。這種發(fā)展趨勢(shì)正如我定義的“中國電商模式（East-Commerce）”，即在發(fā)展中國家市場(chǎng)，中國的商業(yè)模式與西方模式相比更行之有效，并且成為商業(yè)模式的典范。
印尼的電商市場(chǎng)
據(jù)印尼通信信息技術(shù)部數(shù)據(jù)表示，2015年印尼電商市場(chǎng)規(guī)模為180億美金，預(yù)計(jì)2020年將達(dá)到1300億美金，平均每年50%的增長(zhǎng)率。印尼被認(rèn)為是繼中國和印度后的第三大電商市場(chǎng)。
印尼市場(chǎng)就像中國的“同胞妹妹”，在很多方面都非常相似：不健全的商業(yè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，高速的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和移動(dòng)手機(jī)滲透，類似的市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)以及日益激烈的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。當(dāng)然也有不同之處。根據(jù)Bain &Company的調(diào)研，印尼的線上交易占市場(chǎng)交易的30%，目前尚無某一特定電商企業(yè)壟斷市場(chǎng)。
零售市場(chǎng)則非常碎片化，國內(nèi)產(chǎn)品交易的60%都由小型貿(mào)易商主導(dǎo)。印尼政府希望能夠利用馬云的經(jīng)驗(yàn)幫助實(shí)現(xiàn)到2020年在線賣家量能達(dá)到800萬戶。目前，印尼電商交易量占總體交易的5%，而中國則為14%。
印尼互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)提供商聯(lián)盟的一份報(bào)告指出:
印尼的電商數(shù)量達(dá)5100萬戶且2.5億人口中有40%使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)。
eMarketer網(wǎng)站表示印尼的手機(jī)市場(chǎng)活躍，已經(jīng)成為亞太區(qū)域僅次于中國和印度的第三大智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)。
對(duì)手機(jī)和智能設(shè)備的普遍接受度與中國類似；市場(chǎng)甚至跳過了電腦的普及。
Rudy Ramawy這樣告訴我，他是前印尼谷歌總經(jīng)理，現(xiàn)在則成為了一名成功的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家。根據(jù)Bain &Company數(shù)據(jù)顯示：
印尼的主要城市中使用手機(jī)上網(wǎng)的占27%, 而這些城市以外的手機(jī)上網(wǎng)率則高達(dá)79%.
最后來看看消費(fèi)者購買行為。印尼消費(fèi)者偏向在大型商場(chǎng)或是集市輕松購物，并且尋求價(jià)格上比較有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的產(chǎn)品。這也是為什么中國的平臺(tái)型電商在印尼運(yùn)行良好的原因。
面臨的挑戰(zhàn)
但發(fā)光的并非都是金子。印尼市場(chǎng)仍有至少以下三方面發(fā)展不完善：物流，支付和政府保護(hù)。
因電商基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)的建設(shè)，中國的電商發(fā)展與東南亞相比至少先進(jìn)5年。中國線上線下的零售商可保證在1-3天內(nèi)交貨。而印尼則還很落后。雅加達(dá)郵報(bào)2016年4月的一篇文章表示，Lazada 的平均交貨時(shí)間從2014年的8.2天縮短到了2015年的3.3天。而在付款方式上，較多電商交易通過銀行轉(zhuǎn)賬或是貨到付現(xiàn)的形式，這嚴(yán)重制約了電商的發(fā)展。最后，印尼政府仍在保護(hù)和開放政策上舉棋不定：例如，外國企業(yè)對(duì)于當(dāng)?shù)仉娚塘闶燮髽I(yè)的投資仍不被允許。
中國企業(yè)的機(jī)遇
中國企業(yè)在印尼已經(jīng)有許多投資案例：京東、百度、聯(lián)想、華為、Oppo、小米以及其他很多公司都開設(shè)了當(dāng)?shù)氐霓k公室。但這只是個(gè)開始。中國企業(yè)已經(jīng)在類似的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境形成了很好的模式，我相信他們?cè)谟∧嵋惨欢〞?huì)獲得成功。“當(dāng)創(chuàng)立Tokopedia的時(shí)候，我決定采用類似淘寶的模式，因?yàn)樗鉀Q了與印尼電商面臨的類似問題：營造創(chuàng)業(yè)氛圍，培養(yǎng)消費(fèi)者的信任以及建立產(chǎn)品渠道?！?印尼第一大電商平臺(tái)Tokopedia的中國裔印尼CEO WilliamTanuwijaya這樣對(duì)我說。
而這些正形成了發(fā)展的主要機(jī)會(huì)點(diǎn)：
大數(shù)據(jù)，IT基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)， O2O，網(wǎng)絡(luò)支付，智能物流及智能設(shè)備。
在O2O和智能物流方面，印尼最成功的案例則是Go-Jek，非常流行的摩托車預(yù)定App。Go-Jek是亞洲獨(dú)角獸企業(yè)之一，它的投資方之一為同時(shí)也投資了京東和阿里巴巴的DST Global。它的主要服務(wù)范圍為交通、快遞、食物及商品運(yùn)輸。這種按需服務(wù)讓我聯(lián)想到了中國的餓了么、百度外賣和風(fēng)靡全中國的各種O2O服務(wù)，這些服務(wù)使中國成為了全球最大的O2O市場(chǎng)。因此，中國企業(yè)與印尼相比領(lǐng)先了3-4年，可以利用其技術(shù)和專利優(yōu)勢(shì)與當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)合作并實(shí)現(xiàn)全球化擴(kuò)張。舉例來說，2014年百度投資了巴西企業(yè)Groupon，該企業(yè)采用了中國的商業(yè)模式，其市場(chǎng)份額在一年內(nèi)從30%提高到了60%.
在社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)方面，大數(shù)據(jù)將扮演越來越重要的角色，它可以通過分析用戶消費(fèi)歷史向用戶精準(zhǔn)推送產(chǎn)品廣告，這將大大提高轉(zhuǎn)換率。而這些還是印尼企業(yè)目前所做不到的。
為了爭(zhēng)奪市場(chǎng)份額，當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)將不可避免地發(fā)展其電子支付方案。目前在印尼還沒有被大眾接受的可靠支付系統(tǒng)。支付方式及其復(fù)雜導(dǎo)致很多時(shí)候消費(fèi)者拒絕進(jìn)行支付。印尼企業(yè)需要建立一個(gè)可靠的、人性化的、安全的支付系統(tǒng)用于支持移動(dòng)設(shè)備。螞蟻金服在印度市場(chǎng)的成功證明了中國商業(yè)模式在中國市場(chǎng)外的適用性，因此印尼一定是可以達(dá)成的“小目標(biāo)”。
印尼政府已經(jīng)意識(shí)到了電商產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的重要性，這也是他們?cè)敢馕蘸Ｍ馔顿Y并最終開放保護(hù)政策的原因。
馬云的任命不僅僅代表印尼市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，更向我們傳達(dá)了一個(gè)重要信息，即中國的商業(yè)模式在國內(nèi)獲得成功的同時(shí)，也將很快在國際上大顯身手。
(Yicai Global) Sept.26 -- During the September's G20 Summit in Hangzhou, Indonesia's Communication and Information Technology Minister Rudiantara appointed Jack Ma one of the ten advisers to develop Indonesia's nascent e-commerce sector. The job scope has not been finalized yet, but among the other things he will contribute to the development of Indonesia's e-commerce road map.
There is no shortage of critics denouncing a conflict of interests. Alibaba's Group is investing heavily in South East Asia including the May 2016 stake in Lazada. However, according to a recent study produced by Bain & Company ("Can South East Asia live up to its E-commerce potential?") none of the platforms operating in Indonesia controls more than 20 per cent and many global e-commerce players are considering opening branches in Indonesia - Amazon plans to invest US$ 600 million. Hence, the market is very competitive.
The main point here is not the conflict of interest, but the fact that Jack Ma's appointment shows that the Chinese e-commerce model has finally become a "new export product". We are now facing the development of a phenomenon that I have called East-Commerce, where in emerging markets the Chinese e-commerce model works more effectively than the Western one, and has become the benchmark.
The Indonesian e-commerce market
According to the Indonesian Information and Communications Technology Ministry the e-commerce market was valued at US$18 billion in 2015, and is expected to grow to US$130 billion in 2020, with an annual growth of 50 per cent. It is considered the next frontier after China and India.
The market looks like China's younger sister and presents mainly four similarities: an underdeveloped commerce infrastructure, a fast Internet and mobile phone penetration, a familiarity with the concept of "bazaar" and growing price disruption. But there are differences. According to the Bain & Company research, social commerce already represents 30 per cent of all online transactions, and none of the e-commerce platforms controls the market.
As for the retail market, it is very fragment and small business owners account for around 60 per cent of gross domestic product. Indonesia's plan is to use Jack Ma's experience to allow 8 million Indonesian sellers to trade online by 2020. E-commerce currently represents less than 5 per cent of total sales, while in China is around 14 per cent.
The Association of Internet Service Providers in Indonesia reports that there are currently 51 million digital shoppers and Internet penetration has reached 40 per cent of the 250 million population. eMarketer states that Indonesia is a very mobile market and it has already become the third-largest smartphone market in the Asia-Pacific region after China and India. "The mass adoption of mobile phones and smart devices has much in common with that of China; it is leapfrogging computers," says Rudy Ramawy, former Country Manager for Google Indonesia and now a successful venture capital investor. According to Bain & Company in top cities 27 per cent of netizens access online using a mobile phone, while outside the city the number goes up to 79 per cent.
Finally, when looking at the buying habits, Indonesian consumers are perfectly at ease shopping in hypermarkets or "bazaars" and seek very competitive prices. This is why the Chinese marketplace-style e-commerce model works very well here.
The Challenges
But it is not gold all that glitters, there are at least three main areas where Indonesia is still very underdeveloped: logistics, payments and political protectionism.
China is at least five years ahead of Southeast Asia in terms of the infrastructure necessary for online commerce. In China, most retailers and e-tailers guarantee delivery of 1-3 days. Indonesia is still lagging behind. According to a recent article on The Jakarta Post on April 2016 the average delivery time for Lazada in 2014 was 8.2 days and 3.3 days in 2015. In terms of payments, many e-commerce transactions are currently paid through either direct bank transfer or cash-on-delivery, which is greatly limiting e-commerce growth. Finally, Indonesia is still struggling to find a balance between protectionism versus open policies. For example, foreign companies are still banned to invest in local e-commerce retail businesses.
Opportunities for Chinese companies
We are already seeing Chinese investments in the nation: JD.com, Baidu. Lenovo, Huawei, Oppo, Xiaomi and many others have opened offices. But this is just the beginning. I believe that Chinese companies can do well here because their business models have been shaped around the very same issues that Indonesia is facing. "When launching Tokopedia, I decided to use the Taobao model because it solved the very same issues that Indonesia e-commerce would have to address: fostering entrepreneurship, creating trust among consumers, and giving access to products," told me William Tanuwijaya, the Chinese Indonesian Ceo of Tokopedia, Indonesia's number one e-commerce platform.
The main opportunities will be in the growing sectors of: big data, IT Infrastructures, O2O, e-payments, smart logistics and devices. When looking at O2O and smart logistics for example, one of most successful startups in the country is Go-Jek, the very popular motorbike hailing app. Go-Jek is one of the Asian Unicorns and is invested among the others by DST Global who also invested in JD.com and Alibaba. Its services include transport, courrier, food and shopping delivery. This on-demand service reminds of the Chinese Ele.ma, Baidu Wai Mai and all the other O2O services that have transformed China in the biggest O2O market in the world. In this sector, Chinese companies have an advantage of three to fours years and can use their technology and know how to successfully partner with local companies and expand internationally. For example, when Baidu invested in 2014 in the Brazilian Groupon using the same business model it has in China, the Brazilian company market share went from 30 to 60 per cent in one year.
In social commerce, big data will play an ever-growing important role to provide a personalized experience for customers by recommending products based on a real-time personalization. This will in return improve the conversion rate. Indonesian companies are still behind in this.
To scale the e-commerce market local companies will eventually have to develop e-payments solutions. Currently in Indonesia, there is no reliable e-payment system that is also in universal usage. Payments are complicated and are often being declined by customers. Indonesian companies need to create a reliable system that is supported by mobile devices, user-friendly and safe. Ant Financial has already proven in India that its Chinese model works well outside China and Indonesia will definitely be a fertile ground.
Indonesian government recognizes the importance of the development of e-industry, which is why the country will attract more foreign investments and win its internal resistance to open up.
Jack Ma's appointment is not only an opportunity to develop the Indonesian e-market, but it is a message to Chinese companies saying that the very same model that has allowed them to be successful back home can be used to become international.
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