The European Central Banksignals there may be more stimulus ahead

Many worry it has used up all of itsoptions

歐洲央行暗示未來可能會有更多刺激措施

很多人擔心他們已經(jīng)別無選擇

The Economist, Jul 26th 2019

（題記：想跟大家分享這篇文章的主要原因就是下面這張圖，圖片對比的是實際同比CPI和歐洲央行專家的預測值得對比，但這張圖的標題是一廂情愿。）

CENTRALBANKERS HAVE historically been compared to party hosts, tasked with taking awaythe punchbowl before things get out of hand. At the moment, however, their jobis to keep the drinks flowing.

在過去，中央銀行家們常被比作一個派對的主辦人，他們的任務是在事態(tài)失控之前，撤銷已經(jīng)打出去的拳頭。然而，目前他們的工作是保持貨幣的流動性。

TheEuropean Central Bank (ECB) has most to do. Europe’s economy is ailing: figuresreleased on July 24th show that manufacturing activity, as measured by thepurchasing managers’ index, is at its weakest level since 2013. Inflation isstubbornly low (see chart). Fearing a downturn, investors have piled intosafe-haven government bonds, driving yields below zero. On July 25th, MarioDraghi, the bank’s boss, signalled that he is preparing an arsenal of stimulusmeasures to jump-start growth and boost inflation.

歐洲中央銀行有很多事情要做。首先，歐洲經(jīng)濟不景氣，7月24日公布的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)顯示，制造業(yè)活動處于2013年以來的最低點。其次，通貨膨脹率極低（見圖表）。由于擔心經(jīng)濟衰退，投資者為避開風險選擇投資政府債券，導致收益率降至零以下。7月25日，銀行行長馬里奧·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）表示，他正在準備一系列措施，以刺激經(jīng)濟增長和通貨膨脹。

The bankhas at least three tools at its disposal. At a minimum, it can offer guidanceabout forthcoming stimulus to influence market expectations—as Mr Draghi hasjust done. It can cut its benchmark interest rate. And it can launch a newround of bond-buying, known as quantitative easing (QE); its previousasset-purchase scheme, which was halted in December after four years, pumped€2.6trn ($3trn) into the European economy in order to stimulate lending.

現(xiàn)在至少有三種工具可供歐洲央行使用。像Draghi先生剛剛做的那樣，至少它為即將到來的刺激市場預期的措施提供指導。它也可以降低基準利率。它還可以推出新一輪的債券購買，也就是量化寬松（QE）政策；其先前的資產(chǎn)購買計劃為刺激貸款向歐洲經(jīng)濟注入了26萬億歐元（3萬億美元），但已于12月終止。

Alas,the ECB has little room for manoeuvre. The bank’s benchmark rate is currently-0.4%. Economists reckon that banks might soon stop passing on further ratecuts, for fear that depositors might yank their cash out of accounts ratherthan pay banks to hold them. And in order to expand QE significantly, the ECBwould have to lift its self-imposed limit on the share of a country’s debt itcan own. The bank may eventually have to widen the scope of its assets, perhapsby buying bank bonds and equities.

但是，歐洲央行沒有多少回旋余地。銀行的基準利率目前為-0.4%。經(jīng)濟學家認為，銀行可能很快就會停止傳遞進一步的降息，因為擔心儲戶可能寧愿增加提現(xiàn)，也不愿意付費銀行存款服務。此外，為了大幅擴大量化寬松，歐洲央行將不得不取消其對一個國家可擁有債務份額的自我限制。銀行最終可能不得不通過購買銀行債券和股票，以擴大其資產(chǎn)范圍。