- 普朗克：任何一種科學(xué)真相的勝利不是通過說服反對者而成功，而更像是通過反對它的人最終掛掉，然后新一代熟悉它的人逐漸長大。 "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it." - Max Planck
- 高盛下調(diào)今年SP500的EPS增長至0（圖1）—— 為什么不是負的......
- 未來大勢
- 那是最美好的時代：亞洲繼續(xù)崛起（圖2），從西方世界“搶份額”。央行救市。數(shù)字生活、信息普惠。
- 那是最糟糕的時代：經(jīng)濟脫鉤，自動化替代人（知識型工作者也無法幸免），不均增大，通脹（體現(xiàn)在各種資產(chǎn)類型上，不單是CPI），民粹和反全球化思潮涌動，美國拉西方打科技封鎖牌，老齡化，央行失靈。數(shù)字鴻溝。
- 經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)只會是上述的表象。
- 面對有乘數(shù)性質(zhì)=>長尾效應(yīng)的風(fēng)險，個人層面上還是應(yīng)該保持謹慎、ultra保守（圖3）。對自己負責(zé)，也是對社會負責(zé)。疫情、投資，一個道理。
- Markets are crazy. Headlines are stupid. Stocks are businesses.
- Jack Ma退休退得太是時候了?，F(xiàn)在整天忙著捐口罩。
- 疫情帶來的經(jīng)濟影響各階段描述，長期影響才是最嚇人的（圖4-5）。
- 狄更斯《雙城記》開頭原文：
那是最美好的時代，那是最糟糕的時代；那是智慧的年頭，那是愚昧的年頭；那是信仰的時期，那是懷疑的時期；那是光明的季節(jié)，那是黑暗的季節(jié)；那是希望的春天，那是失望的冬天；我們?nèi)荚谥北继焯?，我們?nèi)荚谥北枷喾吹姆较?—— 簡而言之，那時跟現(xiàn)在非常相象，某些最喧囂的權(quán)威堅持要用形容詞的最高級來形容它。說它好，是最高級的；說它不好，也是最高級的。
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.
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