Britannia ruled by waves
海洋統(tǒng)治大不列顛
Rising sea levels threaten Britain’s shores
上升的海平面在威脅大不列顛的海岸線
Pacific atolls aren’t the only places at risk of going under
太平洋島礁并非唯一一個(gè)面臨被淹沒(méi)的危險(xiǎn)之地
LOCOMOTIVES HAVE plied the Dawlish railway seawall, which hugs Devon’s beaches between Exeter and Newton Abbot, since 1846. Passengers are treated to magnificent views of the English Channel—and occasionally to a frisson, when rough seas break on the concrete groynes and envelop oncoming trains in sea spray. If, that is, the trains are running, which increasingly they are not. Service was suspended for a day in mid-October after storm Callum wrecked a culvert. In 2014 the line closed for two months to repair storm damage.
據(jù)英國(guó)《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》網(wǎng)站11月3日的消息：自從1846年以來(lái)，火車已在道利什沿海鐵路線上扎堆，這條鐵路線緊靠?？巳睾团ｎD阿伯特之間的德文郡海灘。乘客可以欣賞到英吉利海峽的壯麗風(fēng)光，也會(huì)在洶涌的海浪撞擊混凝土堤壩和淹沒(méi)迎面而來(lái)的火車時(shí)驚顫不已。如果火車仍在運(yùn)營(yíng)，這樣的場(chǎng)景就會(huì)上演。但是，當(dāng)下沿線上的火車正在逐步停運(yùn)。在風(fēng)暴Callum破壞了一個(gè)涵洞后，這項(xiàng)運(yùn)營(yíng)服務(wù)在10月中旬暫停一天。2014年，道利什鐵路線關(guān)閉了兩個(gè)月，用來(lái)修復(fù)強(qiáng)暴風(fēng)雨帶來(lái)的破壞。
Such disruptions are likely to become more common. A report published on October 26th by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises the government, warns that rising waters pose a growing threat to England’s shores. They have edged up by 15cm (six inches) since 1900 and could rise by another 50-80cm by the end of the century, as a result of man-made global warming. Unlike Kiribati or other atoll nations, the sceptred isle would not be wiped off the map. But stretches of its coastline would be.
這樣的破壞或許會(huì)變得越來(lái)月常見。英國(guó)氣候變化委員10月26日發(fā)表的一份報(bào)告警告說(shuō),上升的海平面會(huì)給英格蘭海岸帶來(lái)與日俱增的威脅。該委員會(huì)為英國(guó)政府建言獻(xiàn)策。自1900年以來(lái)，人為的全球變暖現(xiàn)象導(dǎo)致英國(guó)海平面上升了15厘米（6英寸），到本世紀(jì)末可能會(huì)再上升50-80厘米。同基里巴斯等環(huán)礁島國(guó)家不同的是，這個(gè)主權(quán)國(guó)家不會(huì)在地圖上被抹去。但它海岸線上的一些延伸區(qū)域?qū)?huì)消失。
Besides 436km (271 miles) of railway, the authors identify 930km of main roads, 187,000 hectares of farmland and as many as 520,000 properties already exposed to a one-in-200 chance of coastal flooding each year. If Earth warms by another 1°C, which the world’s current policies all but guarantee, these figures could double, affecting 1.1m Britons. The committee puts the damage to properties alone at ￡370m ($470m) a year by 2080.
除了436公里（271英里）的鐵路，這份報(bào)告的起草者證實(shí)了930公里的交通要道，18.7萬(wàn)公頃的農(nóng)田和多達(dá)52萬(wàn)處的房產(chǎn)有可能遭遇每年1/200概率的沿海洪水。在當(dāng)前政策的保障下，如果地球溫度再上升1攝氏度，這些數(shù)字將會(huì)翻倍，影響到110萬(wàn)英國(guó)人。英國(guó)氣候變化委員估計(jì)，到2080年，僅房產(chǎn)損失就達(dá)到3.7億英鎊（4.7億美元）。
England appears unprepared (the report did not consider Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, which pursue their own policies). Councils rely on outdated planning guidelines. Homeowners in safe areas cross-subsidise the insurance of those in risky ones through Flood Re, a government-run scheme. The property market reflects clifftop villas’ breathtaking views rather than their hair-raising risk of tumbling into the sea.
英格蘭似乎措手不及（這份報(bào)告未含奉行自主政策的威爾士，蘇格蘭和北愛爾蘭）。議會(huì)依靠過(guò)時(shí)的規(guī)劃指引。安全區(qū)的業(yè)主通過(guò)英國(guó)政府運(yùn)行的“Flood Re”機(jī)制為處在危險(xiǎn)之中的業(yè)主提供交叉補(bǔ)貼。房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)宣揚(yáng)的是懸崖頂部別墅的震撼人心的美景，而忽略業(yè)主跌入大海的毛骨悚然的危險(xiǎn)。
Building seawalls and other defences to protect important stretches of shoreline from rising tides could cost ￡6.4bn-9.2bn. Big cities like Liverpool or Newcastle can count on help when the water comes. But a tenth of the 1,600km of endangered coast may prove too uneconomical to safeguard, according to the report. Its authors will not say where; that is up to the government. But imperilled residents surely deserve to know.
建筑海堤等防護(hù)措施以保護(hù)重要的海岸線免受上漲潮水的影響可能花費(fèi)64至92億英鎊。利物浦或紐卡斯?fàn)柕却蟪鞘性跐q潮時(shí)可以指望救助。但這份報(bào)告指出，占據(jù)1/10的1600公里的危險(xiǎn)海岸或被證實(shí)是經(jīng)濟(jì)不合算的以至于無(wú)法保護(hù)。這份報(bào)告的起草者并未說(shuō)明具體位置；這一切取決于政府。但陷入危險(xiǎn)的民眾當(dāng)然理應(yīng)知曉。
https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/11/03/rising-sea-levels-threaten-britains-shores
