原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)

FORTY years ago America, still reeling from the 1973 oil crisis, banned most exports of crude oil. That prohibition was lifted by Congress in mid-December. The first shipment under the new rules set sail on December 31st from the Texan port of Corpus Christi. The renewed flow of crude is already changing how oil is priced.

四十年前，美國還沒有從1973年的石油危機(jī)中緩過神來，當(dāng)時(shí)大部分石油出口都是明令禁止的。這條禁令最終在去年12月中旬由美國國會(huì)宣布徹底廢除。禁令廢除后的第一批出口原油于去年12月31日從德克薩斯海岸的科珀斯克里斯蒂起航。如今這個(gè)新動(dòng)向也開始改變國際原油的定價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

Not all barrels of oil are alike. Crudes can be viscous like tar or so “l(fā)ight” they float on water. Their sulphur content ranges from the negligible (“sweet”) to the highly acidic (“sour”). Though hundreds of grades are bought and sold, traders use a handful of benchmarks to make sense of the market. Brent, from the North Sea, is the current international standard. Americans prefer to use a similar grade known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

不同批次的原油，質(zhì)地也不盡相同。有些可以粘稠如柏油，有些則可以輕浮于水面。各類原油的硫含量從低（甜油）到高（酸油）不一而足。盡管市場上各種級別的原油多達(dá)上百種，交易者們卻只能通過少數(shù)幾個(gè)基準(zhǔn)價(jià)來定位市場。北海的布倫特原油價(jià)是目前國際市場上的參照標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。而美國更傾向于使用另一個(gè)相似的價(jià)格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，即眾所周知的西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價(jià)（WTI）。

WTI was once the main global benchmark. It has a number of advantages over Brent. For one thing, it arrives at the delivery point—Cushing, Oklahoma—by pipeline, and so can be sold in batches of variable size. Brent, in contrast, can only be sold by the tankerload. As Brent sees fewer, bigger transactions, generating continuous prices is tricky. The ever-shifting price of WTI can be observed directly, making it more transparent. And Brent is umbilically connected to a declining oil province. It comes from only a handful of oilfields, whereas a WTI contract can be satisfied by any suitable oil delivered to Cushing.

WTI一度曾是國際原油主要基準(zhǔn)價(jià)。因?yàn)樗泻芏鄡?yōu)于布倫特的地方。其中一個(gè)優(yōu)勢就是它是通過管道輸送的方式直通原油運(yùn)輸基地——奧克拉荷馬州的庫欣（Cushing, Oklahoma），所以它的銷售方式可以很靈活。相比，布倫特只能以油罐方式批量出售。由于布倫特只關(guān)注批次少但成交量大的原油交易，因此它給出的價(jià)格雖然穩(wěn)定但相對片面。而總是處于波動(dòng)狀態(tài)的WTI價(jià)格則更直觀、透明。而且，布倫特與產(chǎn)量日益貧瘠的油區(qū)聯(lián)系緊密。它提供的原油來僅自于少數(shù)幾個(gè)油田，但是WTI合約則對任何輸送到庫欣的合格原油來者不拒。

WTI had one vital flaw, though. The export ban meant that it could detach from world oil prices if America produced more crude than expected, since the surplus could not be exported. For most of the late 20th century that risk was hypothetical, as America’s output steadily declined. But in recent years the shale-oil boom revived American production. A glut of crude emerged, first at Cushing and then by the cluster of refineries on the Gulf of Mexico. That pushed American crude prices below Brent. The spread peaked in 2011 at $28 a barrel. As the price of WTI began to say less and less about the state of the world market, traders spurned it in favour of Brent. Trading in contracts linked to Brent overtook those linked to WTI in early 2012.

但是WTI有一個(gè)致命弱點(diǎn)。美國原油出口禁令的存在意味著WTI價(jià)格有可能與世界原油價(jià)格脫鉤。當(dāng)美國原油產(chǎn)出超過預(yù)期，而過剩的原油又不能對外出口，其結(jié)果可想而知。只不過在上世紀(jì)，這種情況只是一種假設(shè)，因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)美國原油產(chǎn)出持續(xù)走低。直到近幾年，頁巖油產(chǎn)量猛增，導(dǎo)致美國原油產(chǎn)量回升。原油供應(yīng)出現(xiàn)供過于求的局面，這個(gè)危機(jī)從庫欣爆出后又蔓延到墨西哥灣煉油廠，最終迫使美國原油價(jià)格降到布倫特原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)以下。這次危機(jī)的在2011年達(dá)到頂峰，當(dāng)時(shí)油價(jià)僅為28美元一桶。由于WTI價(jià)格越來越不能反映國際市場走勢，于是被交易者們一腳踢開，轉(zhuǎn)而支持布倫特基準(zhǔn)價(jià)。至2012年前期，參考布倫特基準(zhǔn)價(jià)的交易數(shù)量超過了WTI。

The resumption of American exports has changed all that. The two benchmarks now trade at more or less the same price. WTI has duly regained its position as the most traded oil benchmark. This back-and-forth, however, may prove a distraction compared with another shift in the oil market: its centre of gravity is moving inexorably eastwards. OPEC, a cartel of oil exporters, expects demand in Asia to grow by 16m barrels a day by 2040. If that happens, Asia would end up consuming more than 46m barrels a day—four times as much as Europe. As Asia grows, it will become the dominant force in the world market.

重新放開美國原油出口讓一切又再次變了個(gè)樣。兩個(gè)基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格如今大致持平。WTI及時(shí)地奪回了原油交易首席基準(zhǔn)價(jià)的地位。但是WTI的強(qiáng)勢回歸卻不能阻止國際原油市場的重心逐漸東移。石油輸出組織歐佩克（OPEC）預(yù)計(jì)，到2040年亞洲原油需求量將增加1600萬桶一天。如果這一天真的到來，亞洲的原油消耗量將超過4600萬桶一天，達(dá)到歐洲的4倍。隨著亞洲的不斷發(fā)展，它終將成為世界原油市場的主宰。

A good benchmark has to reflect supply and demand for oil wherever it is used. WTI may continue to be influenced by bottlenecks in the American market. Brent reflects the market for oil in north-west Europe. That was once a positive, but as Europe’s share of global demand for oil declines, proximity to the continent is no longer the advantage it was.

一個(gè)好的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)格必須能夠反映出世界各地的原油供求情況。WTI仍然不能脫離美國原油市場的掣肘。布倫特又只反映歐洲西北地區(qū)的市場狀況。曾幾何時(shí)，布倫特是一個(gè)不錯(cuò)的基準(zhǔn)價(jià)，但隨著歐洲原油需求在國際市場上的占有率減少，僅用一片大陸地區(qū)的市場走勢來指導(dǎo)整個(gè)世界的價(jià)格，顯然已經(jīng)不再合適。

That suggests that an Asian benchmark will rise to the fore. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to launch its own yuan-denominated contract this year. The new benchmark will have trouble getting off the ground. For one thing, China’s capital controls make it difficult for foreigners to buy the yuan needed to trade the contracts. The wild swings in China’s equity markets set an unnerving example for investors. But time is on its side.

有人建議將亞洲原油基準(zhǔn)價(jià)抬出水面。上海國際能源交易中心（Shanghai International Energy Exchange）計(jì)劃今年推出以人民幣為結(jié)算貨幣的原油交易合約。新基準(zhǔn)價(jià)在起步階段必定會(huì)面臨困境。原因就是中國的資本管制制度。當(dāng)國外客戶需要兌換人民幣用以購買原油時(shí)，這個(gè)體制會(huì)給他們造成不小的麻煩。中國政府將羽翼伸向股市的先例，讓投資者們始終無法打消對政府的顧慮。但不可否認(rèn)，他們贏得了時(shí)機(jī)。