今日新得

1.來自張瀟雨

研究商業(yè)的第一個原則：不要把商業(yè)當物理學。

人類歷史上的物理研究大概過程是這樣的：首先，我們要對客觀世界有一個觀察。接著，我們會根據(jù)客觀世界的觀察，開始總結規(guī)律。再之后，就到了驗證的部分。研究物理的過程就是：觀察世界——提出假設——驗證假設。

我們研究科學或者商業(yè)，是希望能用它們指導我們的生活和工作。

兩個關于我們這個世界的基礎邏輯：一是嚴格的因果律，二是定律的可重復性。

什么是嚴格的因果律？萬事萬物的發(fā)生都有原因，是原因導致了結果。只要你湊齊了所有的初始條件，執(zhí)行一遍這個物理過程，那么結果就是必然的，是一個非常嚴絲合縫的，從初始條件推到最終結果的過程。

什么是定律的可重復性？定律之所以是定律，是因為它能預測未來。

任何商業(yè)事件都是被千千萬萬的因素影響著的。它總是在發(fā)展、變化，沒有一個法則是萬用的、一定能保證成功的。要明白這些理論可以去學習、去理解，甚至去應用，但千萬不要覺得它們像不變的物理定律似的。否則你就會錯失了真正理解商業(yè)、還原商業(yè)世界本質的機會了。

搞商業(yè)的時候，一輩子可能經(jīng)歷幾次認知崩塌和重建。

——吳伯凡老師說做實驗必須滿足四個條件：大樣本，雙盲，隨機性、對比。抽煙是否有害健康的實驗，選用的是雙胞胎，最后的結果竟然是抽煙的壽命更長。影響壽命的因素有好多，只拿抽煙來衡量，這個實驗的變量太多。

“知識不是預見，但預見是知識的一部分?！笔×苏照甄R子，成功了看看窗外。

創(chuàng)業(yè)的很多人都有個誤區(qū)是覺得富人的錢好掙。這個其實也有歸因偏差在里面。你看到的是那些掙富人錢存活下來的企業(yè)，你沒看到的是那些死掉的?！爱斈忝赓M的時候，他們的智商為0，當你試圖從他們口袋掏點錢時，他們的智商立刻變成145?！?/p>

2.來自萬維剛

我們尊重客觀的世界，反對不切實際的幻想。

成功學想把人生變成算法，人生從不是算法，人生是矛盾。

首先你得知道你是哪種人，你是容易通過過濾機制的人，還是容易被過濾掉的人？是遵守規(guī)則的人，還是反抗規(guī)則的人？是蒲公英還是蘭花？是正常人還是極端人？

——韜奮男孩的隊長王俊凱今天要高考了。翻開他們三個的履歷，從4.5歲就開始在全國的舞蹈大賽上拿各種第一名了。

天道酬勤+外部條件。僅供參考，多么深刻地領悟。

“答案錯了？”

“嗯，參考答案，僅供參考?！?/p>

清晨朗讀會

Brené Brown on How to Reckon with Emotion and Change Your Narrative

The most powerful stories may be the ones we tell ourselves, says Brené Brown. But beware—they're usually fiction.（虛構）

By Brené Brown

My husband, Steve, and I were having one of those days. That morning, we'd overslept. Charlie couldn't find his backpack, and Ellen had to drag （拖拽）herself out of bed because she'd been up late studying. Then at work I had five back-to-back meetings, and Steve, a pediatrician（兒科醫(yī)生）, was dealing with cold-and-flu season. By dinnertime, we were practically in tears.

Steve opened the refrigerator and sighed. "We have no groceries. Not even lunch meat." I shot back, "I'm doing the best I can. You can shop, too!" "I know," he said in a measured voice. "I do it every week. What's going on?"

I knew exactly what was going on: I had turned his comment into a story about how I'm a disorganized, unreliable partner and mother. I apologized and started my next sentence with the phrase that's become a lifesaver in my marriage, parenting and professional life: "The story I'm making up is that you were blaming me for not having groceries, that I was screwing up."

Steve said, "No, I was going to shop yesterday, but I didn't have time. I'm not blaming you. I'm hungry."

Storytelling helps us all impose（欺騙，利用） order on chaos（混亂）—including emotional chaos. When we're in pain, we create a narrative to help us make sense of it. This story doesn't have to be based on any real information. One dismissive glance from a coworker can instantly turn into I knew she didn't like me. I responded to Steve so defensively because when I'm in doubt, the "I'm not enough" explanation is often the first thing I grab. It's like my comfy（舒服的） jeans—may not be flattering（不諂媚的）, but familiar.

Our stories are also about self-protection. I told myself Steve was blaming me so I could be mad instead of admitting that I was vulnerable（易受傷害的） or afraid of feeling inadequate（不恰當?shù)?b>）. I could disengage（脫離） from the tougher stuff. That's what human beings tend to do: When we're under threat, we run. If we feel exposed or hurt, we find someone to blame, or blame ourselves before anyone else can, or pretend we don't care.

（對方僅僅在陳述事實，可能被我們聽出了一些“言外之意”）

今日雜感

就你們自己把他當個寶，扔到社會上就是一坨屎！你要把他扔出去，是不是寶得別人說??！自己當不頂事！

——負責維護高考考點的保安隊長感慨送考家長們的“操碎了心”。