一個無人駕駛的世界是怎樣的?

核心思想:

現(xiàn)在交通情況如此之糟糕,想想我們的血管有幾萬億條,卻極少發(fā)生擁堵 ,所以借鑒生物的思想,他們的工作方式既是集體式的,又是個人式的。作者假象了一種交通方式,比如現(xiàn)在的列車,從A到Z,是可以到達的,但中間因為有人下車,還得在B,C,D等等地方停下。如果到了BCD不停車,只是把需要的車廂分離出來,主體部分繼續(xù)行走呢?

現(xiàn)在路上30%的車都可能在找停車位,所以速度很慢。而且一般車里都只坐了1個乘客。很浪費。

如果一個城市的所有車都聯(lián)網(wǎng),那就不需要車道,車可以知道應(yīng)該怎樣走。

——————————————————

原文:

Wanis Kabbaj: What a driverless world could look like

Some people are obsessed by French wines. Others love playing golf or devouring literature. One of my greatest pleasures in life is, I have to admit, a bit special. I cannot tell you how much I enjoy watching cities from the sky, from an airplane window.

有人沉迷葡萄酒。有人喜歡打高爾夫或者研究文學(xué)。我生活最大的快樂之一是,我得承認,一點特殊性。我不能告訴你我在飛機窗口天空中看城市多么享受。

Some cities are calmly industrious, like Dusseldorf or Louisville. Others project an energy that they can hardly contain, like New York or Hong Kong. And then you have Paris or Istanbul, and their patina full of history.

一些城市工業(yè)化剛剛好,比如dus..或者louisville。其他城市就不是這樣,像紐約和香港。如果你知道巴黎和伊斯坦布爾,他們充滿了歷史感。

I see cities as living beings. And when I discover them from far above, I like to find those main streets and highways that structure their space. Especially at night, when commuters make these arteries look dramatically red and golden: the city's vascular system performing its vital function right before your eyes. But when I'm sitting in my car after an hour and a half of commute every day, that reality looks very different.

我把城市當作活生生的生命體。當我在遠遠高高的地方發(fā)現(xiàn)他們,我發(fā)現(xiàn)了那些組成城市框架的主要的街道和高速公路。特別是在晚上,當上班族使城市動脈看起來更加戲劇性的紅色和金色:城市的血液循環(huán)系統(tǒng)在你的眼前表現(xiàn)出他生機勃勃。但當我作為上班族每天坐在車里一個半小時之后,真的看起來很不一樣。

Nothing — not public radio, no podcast —

沒有任何東西,沒有公眾廣播,沒有播客。

(Laughter) Not even mindfulness meditation makes this time worth living.

連值得在這個時間的苦思冥想都做不到。

Isn't it absurd that we created cars that can reach 130 miles per hour and we now drive them at the same speed as 19th-century horse carriages?

我們創(chuàng)造了210公里每小時的汽車,但我們現(xiàn)在開著它的速度和19世紀馬車的速度一樣,難道不荒誕么?

In the US alone, we spent 29.6 billion hours commuting in 2014. With that amount of time, ancient Egyptians could have built 26 Pyramids of Giza.

光在美國,2014年我們花了296億小時在通勤上。這個時間,古代埃及人可以建造26座吉薩金字塔。

We do that in one year. A monumental waste of time, energy and human potential.

這是一年的事。浪費時間、能量和人類的潛能。

For decades, our remedy for congestion was simple: build new roads or enlarge existing ones. And it worked. It worked admirably for Paris, when the city tore down hundreds of historical buildings to create 85 miles of transportation-friendly boulevards. And it still works today in fast-growing emerging cities. But in more established urban centers, significant network expansions are almost impossible: habitat is just too dense, real estate, too expensive and public finances, too fragile. Our city's vascular system is getting clogged, it's getting sick, and we should pay attention.

數(shù)十年來,我們?yōu)閾矶伦龅难a救措施很簡單:修新路或者擴修已有的路。還卓有成效,在巴黎運行得很好,當城市推倒上百座歷史建筑,建立137公里的交通運輸大馬路。它在發(fā)展中城市還是在施行。但是在比較成熟的城市中心,擴展主要線路幾乎不可能了:居住地很密集,房價過高,公共資金太少。我們的城市交通系統(tǒng)正在變得堵塞,變得病態(tài),我們應(yīng)該關(guān)注。

Our current way of thinking is not working. For our transportation to flow, we need a new source of inspiration.

我們現(xiàn)在思考的方式不管用了。想緩解交通,我們需要一個新的靈感。

So after 16 years working in transportation, my "aha moment" happened when speaking with a biotech customer. She was telling me how her treatment was leveraging specific properties of our vascular system. "Wow," I thought, "Our vascular system — all the veins and arteries in our body making miracles of logistics every day." This is the moment I realized that biology has been in the transportation business for billions of years. It has been testing countless solutions to move nutrients, gases and proteins. It really is the world's most sophisticated transportation laboratory.

工作在交通部門16年,我的靈感發(fā)生在和一個生物科技的客人對話。她告訴關(guān)于她的研究關(guān)于影響我們血液循環(huán)系統(tǒng)的特殊性質(zhì)?!班蕖蔽蚁耄拔覀兊难貉h(huán)系統(tǒng),每天我們身體里面的靜脈和動脈創(chuàng)造了物流的奇跡” 這個時刻我認識到生活已經(jīng)存在交通運輸系統(tǒng)幾十億年了。它已經(jīng)測試了無數(shù)的方法關(guān)于搬運養(yǎng)分、氣體和蛋白質(zhì)。它真是世界上最復(fù)雜的交通運輸實驗室。

So, what if the solution to our traffic challenges was inside us? I wanted to know: Why is it that blood flows in our veins most of our lives, when our big cities get clogged on a daily basis? And the reality is that you're looking at two very different networks. I don't know if you realize, but each of us has 60,000 miles of blood vessels in our bodies — 60,000 miles. That's two-and-a-half times the Earth's circumference, inside you. What it means is that blood vessels are everywhere inside us, not just under the surface of our skin.

所以,如果解決交通擁堵的解決方案在體內(nèi)?我想知道:為什么大多數(shù)時候血液在血管中不堵塞,當我們的城市每天都擁堵。事實上這是兩種不同的系統(tǒng)。我不知道如果你知道的話,我們每個 人都有60000英里血管在我們的體內(nèi),60000英里。它可以繞地球2.5圈在體內(nèi)。意思就是到處都是血管,不只是在皮膚表面底部。

But if you look at our cities, yes, we have some underground subway systems and some tunnels and bridges, and also some helicopters in the sky. But the vast majority of our traffic is focused on the ground, on the surface. So in other words, while our vascular system uses the three dimensions inside us, our urban transportation is mostly two-dimensional. And so what we need is to embrace that verticality. If our surface grid is saturated, well, let's elevate our traffic.

假如你看著我們城市,是的,我們有很多地下鐵系統(tǒng),隧道和橋,也有很多直升機在空中。但是我們主要的交通在地上,在表面。所以換句話說,我們體內(nèi)的血管是三維立體的,我們的城市交通大多是二維的。所以我們需要更加立體化。如果平面系統(tǒng)飽和了,那好,我們把我們的交通抬高。

This Chinese concept of a bus that can straddle traffic jams — that was an eye-opener on new ways to think about space and movement inside our cities. And we can go higher, and suspend our transportation like we did with our electrical grid. Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi are talking about testing these futuristic networks of suspended magnetic pods. And we can keep climbing, and fly. The fact that a company like Airbus is now seriously working on flying urban taxis is telling us something. Flying cars are finally moving from science-fiction déjà vu to attractive business-case territory. And that's an exciting moment.

這個中國的概念巴士能把交通抬高,這是在我們城市中一個大開眼界的新方法去思考空間和移動。我們可以走得更高,抬高交通像我們的電網(wǎng)一樣。x和y在討論測試這些磁懸浮車的未來系統(tǒng)。我們可以繼續(xù)爬行,和飛躍。事實上有個公司像空中巴士一樣正在緊張的工作在研究關(guān)于飛行城市的士,看起來還不錯的樣子。飛行車最后從科幻小說到令人矚目的商業(yè)領(lǐng)域。真是讓人振奮的時候。

So building this 3-D transportation network is one of the ways we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. But it's not the only one. We have to question other fundamental choices that we made, like the vehicles we use. Just imagine a very familiar scene: You've been driving for 42 minutes. The two kids behind you are getting restless. And you're late. Do you see that slow car in front of you? Always comes when you're late, right?

所以建立3D交通系統(tǒng)是我們能夠緩和和解決交通問題的方法之一。但不是僅此一個方法??紤]下我們的基本選擇,像我們使用的車輛。想象一個熟悉的場景:你開車已經(jīng)42分鐘。兩個孩子在你的后面吵鬧。你遲到了。你會看到前方的慢吞吞的車了嗎?總是在你遲到的時候出現(xiàn)對嗎?

That driver is looking for parking. There is no parking spot available in the area, but how would he know? It is estimated that up to 30 percent of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. Do you see the 100 cars around you? Eighty-five of them only have one passenger. Those 85 drivers could all fit in one Londonian red bus. So the question is: Why are we wasting so much space if it is what we need the most? Why are we doing this to ourselves?

那輛車在找停車位。這兒沒有合適的停車地點,但是他怎么知道?估計城市交通擁堵有30%大概是司機在找停車位。你看到100輛車圍繞你嗎?他們中的85個 只有一個乘客。那85個司機可以在一個倫敦紅巴士里。所以問題是:為什么我們浪費這么多空間如果那是我們需要的?我們?yōu)槭裁匆@樣對自己。

Biology would never do this. Space inside our arteries is fully utilized. At every heartbeat, a higher blood pressure literally compacts millions of red blood cells into massive trains of oxygen that quickly flow throughout our body. And the tiny space inside our red blood cells is not wasted, either. In healthy conditions, more than 95 percent of their oxygen capacity is utilized. Can you imagine if the vehicles we used in our cities were 95 percent full, all the additional space you would have to walk, to bike and to enjoy our cities?

生物不會這樣??臻g在我們血管里充分應(yīng)用。每次心跳,產(chǎn)生的血壓能夠為數(shù)百萬血細胞壓縮大量的氧氣進行運輸,迅速流遍全身。我們的紅細胞沒有被浪費。在健康條件下,大于95%的氧氣被利用。你能想想如果我們的車輛在城里充滿了95%,剩余的空間你得走路、騎車和享受我們的城市嗎?

The reason blood is so incredibly efficient is that our red blood cells are not dedicated to specific organs or tissues; otherwise, we would probably have traffic jams in our veins. No, they're shared. They're shared by all the cells of our body. And because our network is so extensive, each one of our 37 trillion cells gets its own deliveries of oxygen precisely when it needs them.

血是如此不可思議、有效率,是因為我們的血細胞沒有被專用于特殊的器官或者組織。否則,在我們的體內(nèi)也會發(fā)生堵塞。是的,他們是共享的。他們通過我們體內(nèi)的細胞共享。因為我們我們的系統(tǒng)是如此龐大,37萬億中的每一個在它需要的時候就會精確地得到氧氣。

Blood is both a collective and individual form of transportation. But for our cities, we've been stuck. We've been stuck in an endless debate between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass--transit systems. I think we should transcend this. I think we can create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars and the efficiencies of trains and buses. Just imagine. You're comfortably sitting in a fast and smooth urban train, along with 1,200 passengers. The problem with urban trains is that sometimes you have to stop five, ten, fifteen times before your final destination.

血液是集體和個人的交通運輸。但是對于我們的城市,我們已經(jīng)卡住了。我們卡在是建立汽車中心社會還是大型系統(tǒng)這兩項之間。我想我們應(yīng)該超出這些。我想我們能建立結(jié)合汽車的便利性和火車巴士 效率性的交通工具。想象一下,你舒服地坐在快速和靈活的城市列車中,和1200乘客一起。城市列車的問題就是有時你得???、10、15次在你的最終目的地之前。

What if in this train you didn't have to stop? In this train, wagons can detach dynamically while you're moving and become express, driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. And so without a single stop, nor a lengthy transfer, you are now sitting in a bus that is headed toward your suburb. And when you get close, the section you're sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual at the same time. This could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow.

如果在列車里你不需要停下呢?在列車里,當你移動變得高速的無人駕駛,進入第二個路線,車廂可以動態(tài)分離。既不需要停,也沒有一個長得轉(zhuǎn)換站,你坐在巴士里,前方是你的郊外。當你離近,你坐在分離的區(qū)塊,你坐的部分就會分離,自動駕駛到你的目的地,它同時是整體和個體。這個在將來可能將成為分享、模塊化、無人駕駛的車輛之一。

Now ... as if walking in a city buzzing with drones, flying taxis, modular buses and suspended magnetic pods was not exotic enough, I think there is another force in action that will make urban traffic mesmerizing. If you think about it, the current generation of driverless cars is just trying to earn its way into a traffic grid made by and for humans. They're trying to learn traffic rules, which is relatively simple, and coping with human unpredictability, which is more challenging.

現(xiàn)在,如果走在一個充滿無人機、飛行的士、模塊巴士和懸浮列車,這不天馬行空,我想還有另外的方法,讓交通變得更好。如果你思考一下,現(xiàn)在的無人駕駛汽車正在嘗試適應(yīng)人類的駕駛網(wǎng)絡(luò)。他們嘗試學(xué)習(xí)相對簡單的交通規(guī)則,適應(yīng)人的行為不確定性。

But what would happen when whole cities become driverless? Would we need traffic lights? Would we need lanes? How about speed limits? Red blood cells are not flowing in lanes. They never stop at red lights. In the first driverless cities, you would have no red lights and no lanes. And when all the cars are driverless and connected, everything is predictable and reaction time, minimum. They can drive much faster and can take any rational initiative that can speed them up or the cars around them. So instead of rigid traffic rules, flow will be regulated by a mesh of dynamic and constantly self-improving algorithms. The result: a strange traffic that mixes the fast and smooth rigor of German autobahns and the creative vitality of the intersections of Mumbai.

但是如果整個城市都是無人駕駛會怎樣?我們需要交通信號燈嗎?我們需要車道嗎?限速呢?血液沒有跟著線路走。他們從來沒有紅燈停。在首個無人駕駛的城市,將沒有紅綠燈和車道。當所有的車都是無人駕駛和連接的,所有的事都是可預(yù)測的,反應(yīng)時間很短。他們可以開得更快,可以理性地選擇加速或者讓周圍的車先行。所以相比嚴格的交通規(guī)則,車流被流動的網(wǎng)絡(luò)和不斷地自己提高算法管制。結(jié)果就是:一個新型的交通混合德國高速公路那樣的快捷和通暢,孟買的十字路口那樣有生動地創(chuàng)造性。

Traffic will be functionally exuberant. It will be liquid like our blood. And by a strange paradox, the more robotized our traffic grid will be, the more organic and alive its movement will feel.

交通的功能將豐富起來。它像我們的血液那樣的液體。聽上去是奇怪的悖論,我們的交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)越機械 自動化,越有機,變得更活躍 。

So yes, biology has all the attributes of a transportation genius today. But this process has taken billions of years, and went through all sorts of iterations and mutations. We can't wait billions of years to evolve our transportation system. We now have the dreams, the concepts and the technology to create 3-D transportation networks, invent new vehicles and change the flow in our cities.Let's do it.Thank you.

所以是的,生物有著所有交通運輸?shù)闹腔邸5沁@個進程已經(jīng)幾十億年,經(jīng)過不斷的迭代和突變。我們不能等幾十億年去改善我們的交通系統(tǒng)。我們現(xiàn)在就有想法,概念和技術(shù)去創(chuàng)造3D交通網(wǎng)絡(luò),發(fā)明新的交通工具,改變城市的流動。走起。謝謝。

原文:https://www.ted.com/talks/wanis_kabbaj_what_a_driverless_world_could_look_like/transcript?language=en

中文:http://open.163.com/movie/2017/2/6/A/MC91699EG_MC9E46U6A.html

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