最近新冠疫情的爆發(fā)一定程度上加大了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定性。中國股市最近也是大漲大跌，經(jīng)濟(jì)小白實(shí)在是搞不懂，于是搜索了一下橋水基金對(duì)新的十年的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測，畢竟他們成功提前幾年預(yù)測到了08年的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，并且有分析過歷史上幾乎所有的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的案例，我認(rèn)為歷史是會(huì)重演，只有掌握歷史才能應(yīng)對(duì)當(dāng)下。
整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析有13頁的PDF，其中以下這段有寫道預(yù)測美國會(huì)進(jìn)行財(cái)政寬松。
我想是不是因?yàn)樗ネ丝煲獊砼R，新冠疫情在此時(shí)全球爆發(fā)導(dǎo)致的可能的停工停產(chǎn)會(huì)不會(huì)進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)衰退？畢竟經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)主要是因?yàn)閭鶆?wù)增長高于業(yè)務(wù)增長導(dǎo)致的入不付債。
Over time, we’d expect to see a march toward expansionary fiscal policy nearly everywhere. We expect policy makers will need to shift to what we’ve been discussing for a long time—what we call “Monetary Policy 3”—which is essentially coordinated monetary and fiscal policy aimed directly at supporting spending, with central banks monetizing fiscal deficits. This is likely whether from the right (through higher military spending or lower taxes) or from the left (through more direct spending on infrastructure or social programs). So far, there has been a palpable shift in the policy conversation in favor of more fiscal easing, but much less action. While political obstacles may slow it down in the near term (in particular, the divided government in the US), the trajectory seems clear.
file:///C:/Users/Richard%20Hung/Desktop/Bridgewater-Associates-2020-Strategic-Report.pdf
怕自己對(duì)整個(gè)報(bào)告的解讀有誤有于是在谷歌上進(jìn)行了相關(guān)信息解讀的搜索，查到其實(shí)在2019年9月彭博社的報(bào)道中就有提到瑞 達(dá)利歐預(yù)測到2020年美國會(huì)迎來經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退約25%，本次經(jīng)濟(jì)cycle的長期債務(wù)在2020年將會(huì)達(dá)到頂峰。
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/ray-dalio-sees-25-chance-of-recession-this-year-and-in-2020
無論是創(chuàng)業(yè)還是投資都要在經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下順勢而為，看來要研究一下做空了。
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2020.02.28
