“Demographics are destiny.”

“人口就是命運。”

It is a phrase, often attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte, that suggests much of the future is preordained by the very simple trend lines of populations. Want to understand how the power dynamic between the United States and China will change over the next 20 years? An economist would tell you to look at the demographics of both countries. (China’s economy is likely to overtake the U.S. economy by 2028, but remain smaller on a per capita basis.)

Want to know how much lithium we’re going to need to mine to make batteries over the next 20 years? Demographics will most likely provide the answer. (We are likely to need 13 to 42 times the amount we currently use, according to the International Energy Agency.) And on and on.

人們常常引用法國哲學(xué)家奧古斯特·孔德的這一表述，它表明未來在很大程度上僅靠這幾根人口趨勢線決定。想了解未來20年中美之間的權(quán)力動態(tài)將如何變化？經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家會讓你去看這兩個國家的人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)。（中國經(jīng)濟(jì)很可能在2028年超過美國經(jīng)濟(jì)，但按人均計算仍然較低。）

想知道未來20年我們需要開采多少鋰來制造電池？人口數(shù)據(jù)很可能會提供答案。（根據(jù)國際能源署的數(shù)據(jù)，我們可能需要目前使用量的13到42倍。）以此類推。

Predicting the future may be a fool’s errand. But using demographic data to assess the opportunities and challenges of the next two decades is something that business and political leaders don’t do enough. We’re all too swept up in the here and now, the next quarter and the next year.

Of course, demographics can’t spot pandemics or other crises. But as seismic as they feel in the moment, such events are rare.

One aspect of the future that demographics can’t help predict are technological innovations. But even technological innovations have a slower impact on the day-to-day than we sometimes appreciate. Peter Thiel famously said in 2013: “We wanted flying cars. Instead we got 140 characters.”

預(yù)測未來可能是徒勞的。但是，在使用人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)來評估未來二十年的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)方面，商界和政界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人做得還不夠。我們都忙于處理此時此地、下個季度和明年的事情。

當(dāng)然，人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)無法發(fā)現(xiàn)流行病或其他危機(jī)。雖然這樣的事情在當(dāng)下讓人感覺天翻地覆，但并不常見。

人口統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)對未來無法預(yù)測的一個方面是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。但即使是技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，它對日常生活的影響也比我們有時意識到的要慢。彼得·泰爾在2013年有一句名言：“我們想要會飛的車。但我們得到的是140個字符?！?/p>

So what comes next? If you woke up 20 years from now in 2041, what would be different? Here are some ideas based on numbers that don’t require a crystal ball.

About 70 percent of the world population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, according to data from the United Nations.

那么接下來會發(fā)生什么呢？如果你在20年后的2041年醒來，會有什么不同？以下這些基于數(shù)字的思路不需要水晶球的魔法。

根據(jù)聯(lián)合國的數(shù)據(jù)，預(yù)計到2050年，世界上約有70%的人口將居住在都市區(qū)。

That means most cities are going to need more infrastructure. Roads, public transportation and waste management will need massive expansion and upgrades. The average person produces 4.9 pounds of waste a day, up from 3.66 pounds in 1980. But here’s a trend going in the other direction as a result of technology: Paper and paperboard declined from 87.7 million tons in 2000 to 67.4 million tons in 2018, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

We’re also going to need a lot more energy.

這意味著大多數(shù)城市將需要更多的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。道路、公共交通和廢物處理將需要大規(guī)模擴(kuò)建和升級。每個人平均每天產(chǎn)生約2.2公斤垃圾，高于1980年的1.66公斤。但由于技術(shù)的發(fā)展，這里出現(xiàn)了另一個趨勢：根據(jù)美國環(huán)境保護(hù)署的數(shù)據(jù)，垃圾中紙和紙板從2000年的8770萬噸下降到2018年的6740萬噸。

我們也將需要更多的能源。

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need about 28 percent more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015 based on the number of people in the country and consumption patterns; on our current trajectory, about 42 percent of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources.

Where will that electricity get produced? Solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land masses and transported to population centers, an idea Elon Musk raised about China five years ago. China has “an enormous land area, much of which is hardly occupied at all,” he said, noting that most of China’s population is concentrated in coastal cities. “So you could easily power all of China with solar.”

美國能源信息署預(yù)計，根據(jù)各國人口數(shù)量和消費模式，2040年全球能源需求將比2015年多28%；按照我們目前的發(fā)展軌跡，美國大約42%的電力將來自可再生能源。

這些電力將在哪里產(chǎn)生？太陽能可以在幾乎無人居住的寬廣陸地上發(fā)電并輸送到人口中心，這是埃隆·馬斯克五年前提出的關(guān)于中國的設(shè)想。他說，中國擁有“巨大的土地面積，其中大部分幾乎無人居住”，并指出中國大部分人口都集中在沿海城市?！八阅憧梢暂p松地用太陽能為整個中國供電?！?/p>

Another trend that, like increasing energy needs, isn’t new and isn’t going away: on-demand everything. Technology has led us to expect that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button, often within minutes. That could transform real estate, especially space in cities that is currently used for retail. As companies work toward instant deliveries, they’ll need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers. Real estate investors are already contemplating how to create mini-warehouses on every block. And the density of people in cities is likely to affect the farming and delivery of food. To get fresh produce to customers quickly, vertical farming — in indoor, controlled environments — could move from being the dream of some start-ups to a new reality.

就像不斷增長的能源需求，另一個趨勢并不新鮮，也不會消失：按需獲取一切。技術(shù)讓我們期待商品和服務(wù)在按下按鈕后就能送達(dá)，通常只需數(shù)分鐘時間。這可能會改變房地產(chǎn)，尤其是目前在城市中用于零售業(yè)的空間。隨著公司努力實現(xiàn)即時交付，他們需要將物品存放在離客戶越來越近的地方。房地產(chǎn)投資者已經(jīng)在考慮如何在每個街區(qū)創(chuàng)建迷你倉。城市人口密度可能會影響農(nóng)業(yè)和食物的運送。為了快速向客戶提供新鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品，曾是一些初創(chuàng)企業(yè)夢想的垂直農(nóng)業(yè)——在可控的溫室環(huán)境下種植——可能會成為新現(xiàn)實。

And we’ll be older. In the United States, we’re likely to live until 82.4 years old, compared with the current life expectancy of 79.1 years, the United Nations forecasts. That’s a good thing and for health care companies and others that cater to older people. But living three extra years is going to be more expensive, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government “projections indicate that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.”

還有，我們的壽命越來越長。聯(lián)合國預(yù)測，在美國，我們的預(yù)期壽命很可能到達(dá)82.4歲，而目前為79.1歲。這對醫(yī)療保健公司和其他服務(wù)老年人的公司來說是一件好事。但多活三年會更貴，這將對工作和儲蓄產(chǎn)生影響。據(jù)城市研究所稱，政府“預(yù)測表明，到2040年，每個社會保障受益人將受益于2.1名勞動者，低于1970年的3.7名”。

Entrepreneurs, industry leaders and policymakers are already at work solving some of the problems that demographic data suggest are ahead of us, whether it’s figuring out how to incentivize farmers to sequester carbon, use insurance as a tool for reducing coal production, reinvent the motors that power heavy industry so they use less energy, or write laws that help govern code.

企業(yè)家、行業(yè)領(lǐng)袖和政策制定者已經(jīng)在努力解決人口數(shù)據(jù)表明擺在我們面前的一些問題，無論是想辦法激勵農(nóng)民固碳、使用保險作為減少煤炭產(chǎn)量的工具、改造發(fā)動機(jī)以減少重工業(yè)供電的能源消耗，或者制定有助于規(guī)定守則的法律。

What about the metaverse? Or crypto technology? Or robots taking our jobs? Or A.I. taking over everything? Demographics can’t answer those questions. All of those things may happen, but life in 2041 may also look a lot like it does today — maybe with the exception of those flying cars.

那元宇宙呢？加密技術(shù)？被機(jī)器人搶走工作？人工智能接管一切？人口數(shù)據(jù)無法回答這些問題。所有這些事情都可能發(fā)生，但2041年的生活也可能看起來就像今天——說不定那時候已經(jīng)有了會飛的車。

詞匯：

demographics 人口統(tǒng)計，人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)

attribute to? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 歸因于

preordained? ? ? ? ? ? ? a. 注定的；天命的

overtake? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?v. 趕上并超過（汽車或人）；（發(fā)展或增長）? ? ? ? ? ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?超越，超過

per capita? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?adj. 每人的，人均的

lithium? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 鋰

and on and on? ? ? ? ? 繼續(xù)，不停地，一直一直

errand? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?差事，跑腿，使命，任務(wù)

a fool’s errand? ? ? ? ? 徒勞的任務(wù)

sweep up? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 大掃除，收拾干凈

here and now? ? ? ? ? ? 此時此地；立刻

spot? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?v. 看見，注意到

seismic? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? a. 地震的；因地震而引起的

crystal ball? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?水晶球，預(yù)言未來的方法

infrastructure? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)

consumption pattern? ? 消費模式, 消費形式

trajectory? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 軌道，軌線；[軍] 彈道

renewable? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 可更新的，可再生的

solar power? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 太陽能

unpopulated? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 無人居住的

enormous? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?巨大的，極大的

on-demand? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?按需

contemplate? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? v. 沉思，深思熟慮，打算

density? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 稠密，密集；密度

vertical farming? ? ? ? ? ? ?垂直農(nóng)業(yè)

expectancy? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?期待，期望，預(yù)期

life expectancy? ? ? ? ? ? ?預(yù)期壽命，平均壽命

cater to? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 迎合，為…服務(wù)

implication? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 可能的影響；含意，暗指；

projection? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 估算，預(yù)測；投射? ? ?

entrepreneur? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 企業(yè)家，創(chuàng)業(yè)者

incentivize? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? v. 有獎鼓勵，激勵

sequester? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? v. 使隔絕；使隱退；沒收，扣押

sequester carbon? ? ? ? ? 固碳

metaverse? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? n. 元宇宙, 虛擬實境，虛擬世界

crypto technology? ? ? ? ? 加密技術(shù)