微信公眾號：外刊每日英語
The Federal Reserve美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)
New job description新的工作職責(zé)
1.The Fed’s move to emphasise full employment could start a global trend美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)強(qiáng)調(diào)充分就業(yè)這一舉措可能會(huì)引起新的全球趨勢。
4.The Fed’s old framework was forged by the inflationary tumult of the 1970s. Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation. But soaring prices persuaded many that this relationship did not hold below some minimum sustainable level of unemployment. Attempts to push joblessness lower would yield higher inflation, but at best only a temporary reduction in unemployment. By the 1990s, most central banks had resolved to target a low level of inflation, generally around 2%.美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)舊的政策框架是由1970年代的通貨膨脹鍛造而成的。戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系（稱為菲利普斯曲線），因此，只要決策者愿意接受更高的通貨膨脹，就可以將失業(yè)率推至更低水平。但是，物價(jià)飛漲使許多人相信，這種負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系并不能使失業(yè)率保持在最低可持續(xù)水平下。降低失業(yè)率的措施會(huì)導(dǎo)致較高的通貨膨脹率，充其量只是暫時(shí)減少失業(yè)率。到1990年代，大多數(shù)中央銀行已決定將通貨膨脹率控制在較低水平，通常約為2%。（by? Libby? Leslie? Stella）長難句精講：Post-war economists understood there to be a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment—known as the Phillips curve—such that policymakers could push unemployment as low as they liked, provided they were prepared to accept more inflation.understood 后的there to be為復(fù)合賓語，known as the Phillips curve為插入語，such that引導(dǎo)結(jié)果狀語從句。此處注意as low as they liked是同級比較的搭配，第一個(gè)as為副詞，第二個(gè)as 為連詞。provided 后省略that，引導(dǎo)條件狀語從句。戰(zhàn)后經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為通貨膨脹與失業(yè)之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系（即菲利普斯曲線），因此，只要決策者有意接受較高的通貨膨脹率，就可以將失業(yè)率推到更低的水平。
5.But since the embrace of inflation targeting in the 1990s, the relationship between employment and inflation has weakened. Soaring joblessness during the Great Recession failed to produce the expected plunge in prices. Neither have low levels of unemployment since then ended an era of historically low inflation. Precisely why the relationship between inflation and joblessness changed is uncertain. Some economists reckon central banks’ credibility in managing inflation anchored the public’s expectations too well. Others point to a decline in workers’ bargaining power, which has eased the pressure on firms to raise prices in order to cover the cost of expensive pay packets. Still others point to technological change and globalisation, which expand consumer options and allow firms to respond to increased demand without raising prices. Whatever the cause, the flattening Phillips curve biased monetary policy in an overly hawkish way, eventually prompting the Fed rethink.但自上世紀(jì)90年代實(shí)行通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制以來，就業(yè)與通脹之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系就已經(jīng)減弱。大蕭條期間失業(yè)率飆升，但這未能產(chǎn)生預(yù)期的價(jià)格暴跌。自那以后，低失業(yè)率再也沒有能力結(jié)束一個(gè)歷史性的低通脹階段。通脹和失業(yè)之間的關(guān)系發(fā)生變化的準(zhǔn)確原因目前還不確定。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，各國央行在管理通脹方面的良好信譽(yù)使得公眾對此給予了過高的期望。另一些人則指出，工人的議價(jià)能力下降，這減輕了企業(yè)的壓力，使得他們不必為支付昂貴的薪酬而提高價(jià)格。還有一些人指出，技術(shù)變革和全球化擴(kuò)大了消費(fèi)者的選擇，使得企業(yè)能夠在不提高價(jià)格的情況下應(yīng)對日益增長的需求。無論出于什么原因，菲利普斯曲線的平緩走向表明如今的貨幣政策偏于強(qiáng)硬，并最終促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)重新思考政策的制定。（by? Charles? Oblivion? Carol）背景知識(shí)：菲利浦斯曲線：菲利浦斯曲線是用來表示失業(yè)與通貨膨脹之間替代取舍關(guān)系的曲線，這條曲線表明：當(dāng)失業(yè)率較低時(shí)，貨幣工資增長率較高；反之，當(dāng)失業(yè)率較高時(shí)，貨幣工資增長率較低，甚至是負(fù)數(shù)。根據(jù)成本推動(dòng)的通貨膨脹理論，貨幣工資可以表示通貨膨脹率。因此，這條曲線就可以表示失業(yè)率與通貨膨脹率之間的交替關(guān)系。即失業(yè)率高表明經(jīng)濟(jì)處于蕭條階段，這時(shí)工資與物價(jià)水平都較低，從而通貨膨脹率也就低；反之失業(yè)率低，表明經(jīng)濟(jì)處于繁榮階段，這時(shí)工資與物價(jià)水平都較高，從而通貨膨脹率也就高。失業(yè)率和通貨膨脹率之間存在著反方向變動(dòng)的關(guān)系。
6.The changes to its framework may seem modest. Because the maximum sustainable level of employment cannot be measured, the Fed will give up worrying about overshooting it and focus only on employment shortfalls. The 2% inflation target remains a constraint, but a more flexible one than before. It should be hit on average, Mr Powell explained, meaning that periods of below-target inflation can be offset by at least some time with inflation above the target as well.其框架的改變似乎不大。因?yàn)樽罡呖沙掷m(xù)就業(yè)水平無法被衡量，因此美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將不再擔(dān)心超過這個(gè)水平，而只關(guān)注就業(yè)不足。2%的通脹目標(biāo)仍然是一個(gè)制約因素，但這相比以前更加靈活。鮑威爾解釋說，一般來說，通脹率應(yīng)該會(huì)受到?jīng)_擊，這意味著至少在某些時(shí)期，通脹率低于目標(biāo)值的情況可以被通脹率高于目標(biāo)值的情況所抵消。
7.But the conceptual change—abandoning the notion of a minimum sustainable unemployment rate—is significant. And the practical effects could be large. Had the Fed enjoyed more freedom in recent years, it could have raised interest rates more gradually, or not at all, enabling a faster and more complete labour-market recovery.但是，放棄最低可持續(xù)失業(yè)率這一觀念轉(zhuǎn)變是十分重要的，并且其現(xiàn)實(shí)影響可能很大。如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)近年來享有更多的自由，它本可以更和緩地逐步提高利率，或者根本不加息，從而實(shí)現(xiàn)更快、更全面的勞動(dòng)力市場復(fù)蘇。（by? Stella? Carol???Oblivion）8.Whether policy will change much in practice is as yet unclear. Markets, for their part, appear not to see a radical change of regime in the offing. Market-based measures of inflation expectations are around 1.7%, below the Fed’s 2% target. American stockmarkets, which seem to soar at the gentlest of nudges, have rallied, some hitting record highs in the past week. More important is the reaction in foreign-exchange markets. The greenback has slipped nearly 1% against a basket of major currencies since Mr Powell’s speech, bringing its total decline since May to about 8%. A weakening dollar could indicate that markets see more room for policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, whose mandate does not explicitly require it to minimise joblessness.目前還不清楚政策在實(shí)踐中是否會(huì)有很大改變。就市場而言，它們似乎沒有看到即將發(fā)生的體制巨變?；谑袌龅耐涱A(yù)期指標(biāo)約為1.7%，低于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)2%的目標(biāo)。美國股票市場似乎在溫和的推動(dòng)下回暖，而現(xiàn)在股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)回升，一些數(shù)據(jù)甚至在過去的一周內(nèi)達(dá)到了歷史新高。更重要的是外匯市場的反應(yīng)。自鮑威爾的講話以來，美元兌一籃子主要貨幣下跌了近1%，使其自5月份以來的總跌幅達(dá)到8%。美元走低可能表明，市場認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)與其它央行(尤其是歐洲央行)之間存在更多政策分歧的空間。歐洲央行并沒有將失業(yè)率降至最低作為其使命。（by?Michael?Williammm?Leslie）9.Under any circumstances, the macroeconomic developments which led the Fed to revise its strategy would no doubt have influenced other central banks to adjust their own policies. But in weak advanced economies with interest rates close to zero, currency appreciation against the dollar places a drag on spending which cannot easily be offset by further easing. The Fed may thus find that its modest adjustment encourages imitators elsewhere in surprisingly short order.在任何情況下，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展會(huì)促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)調(diào)整政策，這無疑也會(huì)影響其他央行調(diào)整其政策。但在經(jīng)濟(jì)疲弱的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體國家，利率已經(jīng)接近于零，本幣對美元升值會(huì)影響支出，而進(jìn)一步放松貨幣政策無法輕易解決這一問題。因此，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)，它的微調(diào)在令人驚訝的短時(shí)間內(nèi)就迅速鼓勵(lì)了外國的追隨者。（by? Williammm Shannen?Bricio）
長難句精講：Shannen全篇審閱：Carol? Michael
譯者鳴謝：Bricio， Michael，Charles，Libby，Williammm，Shannen ，Stella，Carol，Leslie， Oblivion
