DAY 81 The market v the real economy

市場(chǎng)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)
所謂實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)（Real Economy）是指物質(zhì)的、精神的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的生產(chǎn)、流通等經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。最典型的有機(jī)械制造、紡織加工、建筑安裝、石化冶煉、種養(yǎng)采掘、交通運(yùn)輸

versus? ? [?v??s?s]
prep. 對(duì)，對(duì)抗；與……相對(duì)，與……相比

Financial markets have got out of whack with the economy. Something has to give

whack? ? /w?k/??
1> (informal)?to hit somebody/something very hard
2>?? (informal)?to put something somewhere without much care
3>? (North American English, slang)?to murder somebody
vt.重?fù)?，使勁打?分配；?擊??；?削減n.重?fù)簦?一份兒；?嘗試；?狀況

out of whack，意思是身體不舒服，或者是說(shuō)什么東西壞了。
such a wreck，意思是亂七八糟。

out of?whack
1>? ?no longer correct or working properly?? 運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)失靈的，出毛病的
2>? ?not agreeing with or the same as something else?
奇怪的，莫名其妙的，不對(duì)頭的

美國(guó)俚語(yǔ)非常豐富，“out of whack”（紊亂）就是其中的一個(gè)。有意思的是，whack（重?fù)簦┖蛍acky（瘋瘋癲癲的）不僅長(zhǎng)得像，而且還有一定血緣關(guān)系。Whack是個(gè)擬聲詞，讀音仿佛激烈碰撞時(shí)那種驚天動(dòng)地的聲音；而wacky則是指那些因腦袋遭受重創(chuàng)后而變得癡傻、行為不正常的人。

18世紀(jì)時(shí)，whack被盜賊們用作“瓜分”，意思是“把盜來(lái)的東西分成許多份，以此分贓”。后來(lái)，由于盜賊們?cè)诜众E過(guò)程中會(huì)遇到各種利益沖突，whack（瓜分）就逐漸演變成“討價(jià)還價(jià)；達(dá)成協(xié)議”的意思。到了19世紀(jì)，whack已不再僅僅是盜賊們的行話，它的含義進(jìn)一步發(fā)展為“契約；期望”，這樣，out of whack便可解釋成“脫離契約；出乎意料”，也就是“偏軌；不正?！绷恕?/p>

whacky
Some of it was a bit "whacky", but much was of extraordinarily high quality.

1 Stockmarket history?is packed with drama: the 1929 crash; Black Monday in 1987, when share prices lost 20% in a day; the dotcom mania in 1999. With such precedents, nothing should come as a surprise, but the past eight weeks have been remarkable, nonetheless. A gut-wrenching sell-off in shares has been followed by a delirious rally in America. Between February 19th and March 23rd, the?s&p?500 index lost a third of its value. With barely a pause it has since rocketed, recovering more than half its loss. The catalyst was news that the Federal Reserve would buy corporate bonds, helping big firms finance their debts. Investors shifted from panic to optimism without missing a beat.

be packed with?? 擠滿；塞滿
pack? [p?k]??
n. 包裝；一群；背包；包裹；一副vt. 包裝；壓緊；捆扎；挑選；塞滿vi. 擠；包裝貨物；被包裝；群集

the 1929 crash? 經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)
crash? [kr??] ?
n. （交通工具）墜毀；碰撞聲；暴跌；（機(jī)器、系統(tǒng)的）崩潰；睡覺(jué)；粗棉布

Black Monday
黑色星期一指股市大跌經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)在星期一的現(xiàn)象。最著名的黑色星期一是1987年10月19日美國(guó)股市發(fā)生的大跌，當(dāng)日道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌了22%。

dotcom mania? 互聯(lián)網(wǎng)熱潮
dotcom ['d?tk?m] 網(wǎng)站
mania [?me?ni?] [?me?ni?] n. 狂熱；狂躁；熱衷?

precedent?? [?pres?d?nt]
n. 先例；前例adj. 在前的；在先的
remarkable [r??mɑ?k?bl]? 不同尋常的，值得注意的
unusual or special in a way that makes people notice them and be surprised or impressed
adj. 卓越的；非凡的；值得注意的
nonetheless [?n?ne??les] adv. 盡管如此，但是

gut-wrenching? [?ɡ?t rent???]
make you feel extremely shocked or upset
adj. 極度痛苦的，撕心裂肺的
gut? [ɡ?t]
n. 內(nèi)臟；腸子；劇情；膽量；海峽；勇氣；直覺(jué)；腸
vt. 取出內(nèi)臟；摧毀（建筑物等）的內(nèi)部
adj. 簡(jiǎn)單的；本質(zhì)的，根本的；本能的，直覺(jué)的
wrench [rent?]
vt. 扭傷；猛扭；曲解；折磨vi. 扭傷；猛扭；猛絞

sell-off? [?sel ?f]
n. （國(guó)有企業(yè)的）出售；（證券）拋售；（低價(jià)）處理財(cái)產(chǎn)
the sale of a large number of?stocks?and?shares, after which their value usually falls

?delirious?? [d??l?ri?s??
??extremely excited and happy
adj. 發(fā)狂的；神志昏迷的；精神錯(cuò)亂的

rally? [?r?li]?
n. 公眾集會(huì)；汽車?yán)?；往返拍擊；止跌回升；?jìng)賽

catalyst?? [?k?t?l?st]
n. [物化] 催化劑；刺激因素

miss a beat? ? 錯(cuò)失機(jī)會(huì); 停頓; 猶豫;
（心臟） 跳動(dòng)zd（似乎）暫停; （非正式） （尤指在專嚴(yán)峻情況或活動(dòng)間的過(guò)渡期間）猶豫，躊躇;

rocket?? [?r?k?t] v. 迅速增加

the Federal Reserve?? 美聯(lián)儲(chǔ);? 中央銀行
corporate bond?? 企業(yè)債券
finance? vt. 負(fù)擔(dān)經(jīng)費(fèi)，供給…經(jīng)費(fèi)vi. 籌措資金

The Great Depression
大蕭條，是指1929年至1933年之間發(fā)源于美國(guó)，并后來(lái)波及整個(gè)資本主義世界，其中包括美國(guó)、英國(guó)、法國(guó)、德國(guó)和日本等資本主義國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。這一危機(jī)具有持續(xù)時(shí)間長(zhǎng)，范圍廣，破壞力強(qiáng)的特點(diǎn)，其根源在于資本主義制度的基本矛盾，也就是生產(chǎn)社會(huì)化和資本主義生產(chǎn)資料私有制之間的矛盾。?[1]??大蕭條是現(xiàn)代社會(huì)持續(xù)時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條，不僅導(dǎo)致了長(zhǎng)期的大規(guī)模失業(yè)，也改變了社會(huì)關(guān)系，摧毀了執(zhí)政政府，幫助納粹黨上臺(tái)，最終導(dǎo)致了第二次世界大戰(zhàn)的爆發(fā)。
Depression? [d??pre?n]
n.抑郁癥; 精神憂郁; 抑郁; 沮喪; 消沉; 蕭條期; 經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退; 不景氣;

s&p?500 index?
標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)英文簡(jiǎn)寫(xiě)為S&P 500 Index，是記錄美國(guó)500家上市公司的一個(gè)股票指數(shù)。這個(gè)股票指數(shù)由標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾公司創(chuàng)建并維護(hù)。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)覆蓋的所有公司，都是在美國(guó)主要交易所，如紐約證券交易所、Nasdaq交易的上市公司。與道瓊斯指數(shù)相比，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)包含的公司更多，因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更為分散，能夠反映更廣泛的市場(chǎng)變化。? 與道·瓊斯工業(yè)平均股票指數(shù)相比，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)·普爾500指數(shù)具有采樣面廣、代表性強(qiáng)、精確度高、連續(xù)性好等特點(diǎn)，被普遍認(rèn)為是一種理想的股票指數(shù)期貨合約的標(biāo)的。?

2 This rosy view from Wall Street should make you uneasy (see?article). It contrasts with markets elsewhere. Shares in Britain and continental Europe, for example, have recovered more sluggishly. And it is a world away from life on Main Street. Even as the lockdown eases in America, the blow to jobs has been savage, with unemployment rising from 4% to about 16%, the highest rate since records began in 1948. While big firms’ shares soar and they get help from the Fed, small businesses are struggling to get cash from Uncle Sam.

rosy?? [?r??zi ] 樂(lè)觀的
the situation seems likely to be good or successful.??

sluggishly?? /?sl?ɡ??li/? ? adv. 懶怠地；慢吞吞地
?more slowly than normal and in a way that seems lazy

savage?? /?s?v?d?/??
aggressive and violent; causing great harm
adj. 野蠻的；殘酷的；狂怒的；荒涼的
n. 未開(kāi)化的人；粗魯?shù)娜?；殘暴成性的?br>vt. 亂咬；粗暴的對(duì)待

soar? ? /s??(r)/? v
if the value, amount or level of something?soars, it rises very quickly
=rocket

Uncle Sam =US

3 Wounds from the financial crisis of 2007-09 are being reopened. “This is the second time we’ve bailed their asses out,” grumbled Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate, last month. The battle over who pays for the fiscal burdens of the pandemic is just beginning. On the present trajectory, a backlash against big business is likely.

bail out? 幫助某人脫困，保釋

grumble?? /?ɡr?mbl/
1> to complain about somebody/something, especially something that is not really very serious
2>? to make a deep continuous sound =rumble

trajectory?? /tr??d?ekt?ri/ n 軌道
the curved path of something that has been fired, hit or thrown into the air

backlash?? /?b?kl??/? n
?a strong negative reaction by a large number of people, for example to something that has recently changed in society
n. 反沖；強(qiáng)烈抵制
vt. 強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)；發(fā)生后沖

4 Start with events in the markets. Much of the improved mood is because of the Fed, which has acted more dramatically than other central banks, buying up assets on an unimagined scale. It is committed to purchasing even more corporate debt, including high-yield “junk” bonds. The market for new issues of corporate bonds, which froze in February, has reopened in spectacular style. Companies have issued $560bn of bonds in the past six weeks, double the normal level. Even beached cruise-line firms have been able to raise cash, albeit at a high price. A cascade of bankruptcies at big firms has been forestalled. The central bank has, in effect, backstopped the cashflow of America Inc. The stockmarket has taken the hint and climbed.

dramatically /dr??m?t?kli/? ad
very suddenly and to a very great and often surprising degree 、

It is committed to?

high-yield? 高收益

in spectacular style? 驚人的方式

beach 擱淺的?
cruise-line? 游輪公司

albeit?? /???l?bi??t/??? conjunction
?although

A?cascade?of? 一連串；一系列??
cascade?? /k??ske?d/? n
1>?? a small?waterfall, especially one of several falling down a steep slope with rocks
2>? ?a large amount of water falling or pouring down

forestall? 先發(fā)制人，預(yù)先阻止
/f???st??l/? ? v??
to prevent something from happening or somebody from doing something by doing something first

backstop=support

take the hint? 領(lǐng)悟到提示
The stockmarket has?taken the hint?and climbed.? 領(lǐng)悟到提示并且行動(dòng)

5 The Fed has little choice—a run on the corporate-bond market would worsen a deep recession. Investors have cheered it on by piling into shares. They have nowhere else good to put their cash. Government-bond yields are barely positive in America. They are negative in Japan and much of Europe. You are guaranteed to lose money by holding them to maturity, and if inflation rises the losses would be painful. So stocks are appealing. By late March prices had fallen by enough to tempt the braver sort. They steeled themselves with the observation that much of the stockmarket’s value is tied to profits that will be made long after the covid-19 slump has given way to recovery.

cheer on?? 鼓勵(lì)，為某人打氣
pile into?? v. 擠進(jìn)；進(jìn)入

Government-bond yields? ?國(guó)債利率
yield? 利率

maturity? [m??t???r?ti ]
n. 成熟；到期；完備

tempt? [tempt]
vt. 誘惑；引起；冒…的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；使感興趣

steel? v 鍛煉
steel with? ?堅(jiān)信

slump? ? /sl?mp/? ?v? =drop
to fall in price, value, number, etc., suddenly and by a large amount

6 Tellingly, though, the recent rise in share prices has been uneven. Even before the pandemic the market was lopsided, and it has become more so. Bourses in Britain and continental Europe, chock-full of troubled industries like carmaking, banking and energy, have lagged behind, and there are renewed jitters over the single currency (see?article). In America investors have put even more faith in a tiny group of tech darlings—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft—which now make up a fifth of the?s&p?500 index. There is little euphoria, just a despairing reach for the handful of businesses judged to be all-weather survivors.

Tellingly?? /?tel??li/?? adv. 有效地；顯著地
in a way that shows effectively what somebody/something is really like, but often without intending to

lopsided?? [?l?p?sa?d?d]?
uneven because one side is lower or heavier than the other
adj. 不平衡的，傾向一方的

Bourse?? /b??s/? n. 交易所
?a?stock exchange, especially the one in Paris

chock-full? [?t??k ?f?l]? ?
adj. 塞滿了的；充滿的，擠滿的

lagged behind =trail? n?? /tre?l/
to move or develop slowly or more slowly than other people, organizations, etc. ? ?
lag?? /l?ɡ/? ?v

jitters?? /?d??t?z/?? n
feelings of being anxious and nervous, especially before an important event or before having to do something difficult
n. 緊張不安；神經(jīng)過(guò)敏；激動(dòng)（jitter 的復(fù)數(shù)）
v. （信號(hào)）抖動(dòng)，晃動(dòng)；緊張不安；使激動(dòng)（jitter 的第三人稱單數(shù)）

euphoria?? /ju??f??ri?/? n
an extremely strong feeling of happiness and excitement that usually lasts only a short time
n. （常指較短時(shí)間的）極度興奮，情緒高漲，狂喜

despairing?? [d??spe?r??]
adj. 感到絕望的；表現(xiàn)絕望的；無(wú)望的

reach? /ri?t?/? n 影響力
the limit to which somebody/something has the power or influence to do something
eg： The brand now has?global reach.
?beyond somebody/something's reach?
Such matters are beyond the reach of the law.?
out of somebody/something's reach?
Victory is now out of her reach.?
within somebody/something's reach?
The basic model is priced well within the reach of most people.

all-weather survivors? 全天候天氣幸存者

7 At one level, this makes good sense. Asset managers have to put money to work as best they can. But there is something wrong with how fast stock prices have moved and where they have got back to. American shares are now higher than they were in August. This would seem to imply that commerce and the broader economy can get back to business as usual. There are countless threats to such a prospect, but three stand out. The first is the risk of an aftershock. It is entirely possible that there will be a second wave of infections. And there are also the consequences of a steep recession to contend with—American?gdp?is expected to drop by about 10% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier. Many individual bosses hope that ruthless cost-cutting can help protect their margins and pay down the debts accumulated through the furlough. But in aggregate this corporate austerity will depress demand. The likely outcome is a 90% economy, running far below normal levels.

At one level = to some degree在某種程度上

get back to?
1>? to speak or write to somebody again later, especially in order to give a reply
2>? to return to something

stand out
1>? stand out (as something)? =outstanding
? ? ? ?to be much better or more important than somebody/something
2>? stand out (from/against something)
? ? ? ? ?to be easily seen or noticed

aftershock? 余波
People sometimes refer to the effects of an important event, especially a bad one, as the?aftershock.

a steep recession? 急劇衰退
contend with? 滿足于
in the second quarter? 第二季度

ruthless? 無(wú)情的
margin 利潤(rùn)率
furlough 休假

in aggregate? 總體而言

austerity? /??ster?ti/???緊縮
1>? [u]?difficult economic conditions created by government policies aimed at cutting public spending
2>? [u]?the quality of being simple and plain in appearance
n. 緊縮；樸素；苦行；嚴(yán)厲

pay down
(especially North American English)?to reduce an amount of money that you owe by paying some of it

8 A second hazard to reckon with is fraud. Extended booms tend to encourage shifty behaviour, and the expansion before the covid crash was the longest on record. Years of cheap money and financial engineering mean that accounting shenanigans may now be laid bare. Already there have been two notable scandals in Asia in recent weeks, at Luckin Coffee, a Chinese Starbucks wannabe, and Hin Leong, a Singaporean energy trader that has been hiding giant losses (see?article). A big fraud or corporate collapse in America could rock the markets’ confidence, much as the demise of Enron shredded investors’ nerves in 2001 and Lehman Brothers led the stockmarket down in 2008.

Extended booms? 持續(xù)的擴(kuò)張
shifty? /???fti/??不誠(chéng)實(shí)的行為 = furtive
?seeming to be dishonest; looking guilty about something

cheap money? ?低息貸款？
低利借款；來(lái)得容易的非正當(dāng)收入；在錢(qián)上好商量的人
Cheap money is a loan or credit with a low interest rate or the setting of low interest rates by a?central bank?like the Federal Reserve.

accounting shenanigans 財(cái)務(wù)造假
shenanigans? ?/???n?n?ɡ?nz/??
secret or dishonest activities that people find interesting and sometimes funny
?n. 惡作??；詐騙；詭計(jì)（shenanigan的復(fù)數(shù)）?

?laid bare 暴露無(wú)遺

hiding giant losses? ?隱瞞巨額損失

?rock the markets’ confidence? 動(dòng)搖市場(chǎng)信心

demise?? /d??ma?z/?? n
1>? the end or failure of an institution, an idea, a company, etc.
2>? death
n. 死亡，終止；轉(zhuǎn)讓；傳位vt. 遺贈(zèng)；禪讓

shred?? /?red/?? v
to cut or tear something into small pieces
v.切碎; 撕碎;
n.(撕或切的) 細(xì)條，碎片; 極少量; 些許; 一丁點(diǎn);

9 The most overlooked risk is of a political backlash. The slump will hurt smaller firms and leave the bigger corporate survivors in a stronger position, increasing the concentration of some industries that was already a problem before the pandemic. A crisis demands sacrifice and will leave behind a big bill. The clamour for payback will only grow louder if big business has hogged more than its share of the subsidies on offer. It is easy to imagine windfall taxes on bailed-out industries, or a sharp reversal of the steady drop in the statutory federal corporate-tax rate, which fell to 21% in 2017 after President Donald Trump’s tax reforms, from a long-term average of well over 30%. Some Democrats want to limit mergers and stop firms returning cash to their owners.

backlash 反彈
n. 反沖；強(qiáng)烈抵制vt. 強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)；發(fā)生后沖

slump? 猛跌——>經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退

concentration? 集中度
行業(yè)集中度指數(shù)(Concentration Ratio，CRn)　　
行業(yè)集中度指數(shù)又稱“行業(yè)集中率”是指該行業(yè)的相關(guān)市場(chǎng)內(nèi)前N家最大的企業(yè)所占市場(chǎng)份額（產(chǎn)值、產(chǎn)量、銷售額、銷售量、職工人數(shù)、資產(chǎn)總額等）的總和。

clamour? /?kl?m?(r)/? 呼聲
1> a loud noise, especially one that is made by a lot of people or animals
2>? clamour (for something)?
? ? ? a demand for something made by a lot of people

hogged? 占有的
hog? /h?ɡ/?
to use or keep most of something yourself and stop others from using or having it
n. 豬，像豬般的人；貪婪者vt. 使拱起vi. 拱起

on offer 提供的

windfall?taxes? 暴利稅

a sharp reversal? 極具逆轉(zhuǎn)

statutory [?st?t??tri]
adj. 法定的；法令的；可依法懲處的

?federal corporate-tax rate? 聯(lián)邦公司稅率

Democrats? 民主黨人

merger? [?m??d??(r)]
?（企業(yè)等的）合并；并購(gòu)

10 For now, equity investors judge that the Fed has their back. But the mood of the markets can shift suddenly, as an extraordinary couple of months has proved. A one-month bear market scarcely seems enough time to absorb all the possible bad news from the pandemic and the huge uncertainty it has created. This stockmarket drama has a few more acts yet.■

equity investors? 股權(quán)投資者

the mood of?

bear market? ?熊市

?scarcely?? /?ske?sli/? ? ad
1>? only just; almost not
2>? used to say that something happens immediately after something else happens
3>? ?used to suggest that something is not at all reasonable or likely
adv. 幾乎不，簡(jiǎn)直不；幾乎沒(méi)有；決不； 剛……就……；僅僅，剛剛；勉強(qiáng)，剛；根本不可能；不可能，不會(huì)