“據(jù)說研習(xí)天文，可以讓人謙卑，塑造人心，磨煉個性，也許再沒有更好的方法能比這遙遠(yuǎn)的畫面更好地顯示出人類的自負(fù)與愚蠢。”

一文講清楚什么是莊家與散戶發(fā)出以后，有人問我什么是趨勢，在我看來并沒有那么神秘莫測，趨勢就是事物變化的規(guī)律，要了解趨勢就要從最基礎(chǔ)的開始，格物，致知。

每一個交警叔叔都是哲學(xué)家，因為他們每攔下一個人就問，你是誰？你從哪里來？你要到哪里去？我們就從這里開始。

01

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The Pale Bule Dot 蒼藍小點

Pale Blue Dot 蒼藍小點

1990年2月14日當(dāng)旅行者1號太空探測器完成第一階段的探測任務(wù)，即將飛出太陽系的時候，卡爾·薩根說服美國宇航局讓旅行者1號調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)相機，從64億公里(約40億英里)之外最后回望一眼自己的家園。照片中，地球是一個不足一個像素大小的圓點，看上去是碩大的宇宙里，攝像頭反射的光線中的一個小點。（下圖黃圈處）

Pale Blue Dot?is a photograph of planet Earth taken on February 14, 1990, by the?Voyager 1?space probe which had completed its primary mission and was leaving the Solar System. Karl Sagen persuade NASA to turn its camera and take one last photograph of Earth across a record distance of about?6 billion?kilometers (3.7 billion?miles, 40.5?AU). In the photograph, Earth's apparent size is less than a?pixel; the planet appears as a tiny dot against the vastness of?space, among bands of sunlight reflected by the camera.（hilighted with yellow circle)

Pale Blue Dot 蒼藍小點

故事是這樣的

Here is the story.

1977年9月，美國宇航局發(fā)射了旅行者1號，一個722公斤的機器宇宙飛船，任務(wù)是研究外太陽系并最終研究星際空間。到今天為止，已經(jīng)運行了41年，1個月21天。

In September 1977,?NASA?launched?Voyager 1, a 722-kilogram (1,592?lb)?robotic spacecraft?on a mission to study the outer Solar System and eventually?interstellar space.Voyager 1 is operating for 41?years, 1?month and 21?days as of today (25 October 2018).

當(dāng)1980年旅行者1號經(jīng)過土星的時候，卡爾·薩根提出來拍攝地球最后一張照片的想法。他承認(rèn)這樣的一幅圖并沒有科研價值，因為地球太小，旅行者1號的攝像頭拍不到任何細(xì)節(jié)，但是從我們地球在宇宙中的視角看是很有意義的。

?When the spacecraft passed the Satum in 1980, Sagan proposed the idea of the space probe taking one last picture of Earth.He acknowledged that such a picture would not have had much scientific value, as the Earth would appear too small for?Voyager's cameras to make out any detail, but it would be meaningful as a perspective on?our place in the universe.

直到1989年薩根的想法被付諸執(zhí)行。在1990年三月到五月期間，旅行者1號的無線信號以光速傳播了5個半小時,傳回60幅圖片到地球。

?It was not until 1989 that Sagan's idea was put into practice.Between March and May 1990,?Voyager 1?returned 60?frames?back to Earth, with the radio signal travelling at the speed of light for nearly five and a half hours to cover the distance.

拍攝位置 Photo shooting position

由里到外依次是太陽，水星，金星，地球，火星，木星，土星，天王星，冥王星。

From the inner to the outer is Sun, Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Satum, Uranus, Neptune.

旅行者1號的成像科學(xué)子系統(tǒng)由兩個攝像頭組成，一個200毫米焦距的低分辨率廣角攝像頭，用來拍攝廣角圖像；一個1500毫米高分辨率狹角攝像頭，用來拍攝具體目標(biāo)，就是用這個拍的蒼藍小點。兩個攝像頭都是慢速掃描真空影象感應(yīng)管，在管子前面的輪子上配置了8個彩色濾鏡。

Voyager 1's Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) consisted of two cameras: a 200?mm?focal length, low-resolution wide-angle camera (WA), used for spatially extended imaging, and a 1500?mm high-resolution narrow-angle camera (NA) – the one that took?Pale Blue Dot?– intended for detailed imaging of specific targets. Both cameras were of the slow-scan?vidicontube type and were fitted with eight colored filters, mounted on a filter wheel placed in front of the tube.

其中三幅圖顯示了地球就是懸在太空的一個小點，每一幅圖都用了不同顏色的濾鏡，藍色，綠色和紫色，經(jīng)計算得出的曝光時間分別是0.72秒，0.48秒，0.72秒。三幅圖重新組合成了今天的蒼藍小點。

Three of the frames received showed the Earth as a tiny point of light in empty space. Each frame had been taken using a different color filter: blue, green and violet, with calculated exposure times of 0.72, 0.48 and 0.72 seconds respectively. The three frames were then recombined to produce the image that became?Pale Blue Dot.

02

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That's home, that's us那是家園，那是我們

如果細(xì)心看，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)一個小點。就在這里，那是我們的家園，那是我們。在這個小點上，每個你愛的人、每個你認(rèn)識的人、每個你曾經(jīng)聽過的人，以及每個曾經(jīng)存在的人，都在那里過完一生。這里集合了一切的歡喜與苦難，數(shù)千個自信的宗教、意識形態(tài)以及經(jīng)濟學(xué)說，每個獵人和搜尋者、每個英雄和懦夫、每個文明的創(chuàng)造者與毀滅者、每個國王與農(nóng)夫、每對相戀中的年輕愛侶、每個充滿希望的孩子、每對父母、發(fā)明家和探險家，每個教授道德的老師、每個貪污政客、每個超級巨星、每個至高無上的領(lǐng)袖、每個人類歷史上的圣人與罪人，都住在這里 —— 一粒懸浮在陽光下的微塵。

?if you look at it, you see a dot. That's here. That's home. That's us. On it, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever lived, lived out their lives. The aggregate of all our joys and sufferings, thousands of confident religions, ideologies and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilizations, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every hopeful child, every mother and father, every inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every superstar, every supreme leader, every saint and sinner in the history of our species, lived there on a mote of dust, suspended in a sunbeam.

地球是在這個浩翰宇宙劇院里的一個細(xì)小舞臺。想想那些將領(lǐng)們和皇帝們流出的血河，他們的光榮與勝利只為了讓他們成為了這一點上一小部分的短暫主宰。想想一個像素點的某個角落的棲息者，每天把那無盡的殘酷施加到與他們沒什么區(qū)別的另一個角落的棲息者身上。他們有多頻繁發(fā)生誤解？他們有多渴望殺害另一方？他們的敵意有多強？我們的裝模作樣，我們的自以為是，我們的錯覺以為自己在宇宙里的位置有多優(yōu)越，通通都被這暗淡的光點所挑戰(zhàn)。

The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena. Think of the rivers of blood spilled by all those generals and emperors so that in glory and in triumph they could become the momentary masters of a fraction of a dot. Think of the endless cruelties visited by the inhabitants of one corner of the dot on scarcely distinguishable inhabitants of some other corner of the dot. How frequent their misunderstandings, how eager they are to kill one another, how fervent their hatreds. Our posturings, our imagined self-importance, the delusion that we have some privileged position in the universe, are challenged by this point of pale light.

我們的星球只是在這被漆黑包裹的宇宙里一粒孤單的微粒而已。 我們是如此的不起眼，在這浩瀚之中，我們不會從任何地方得到提示去拯救我們。一切取決于我們自己。

Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity – in all this vastness – there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. It is up to us.?

地球是目前已知存在生命的唯一星球。至少在不遠(yuǎn)的將來，人類還無法遷居到別的地方。訪問是可以辦到的，定居還不可能。不管你是否喜歡，就目前來說，地球還是我們生存的地方。

The Earth is the only world known so far to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment the Earth is where we make our stand.

據(jù)說研習(xí)天文，可以讓人謙卑，塑造人心，磨煉個性，也許再沒有更好的方法能比這遙遠(yuǎn)的畫面更好地顯示出人類的自負(fù)與愚蠢。對我而言，它強調(diào)了我們的責(zé)任，要對人更友善，懂得珍惜與愛護，這泛著蒼白藍光的小點是我們知道的唯一的家園。

It's been said that astronomy is a humbling, and I might add, a character-building experience. To my mind, there is perhaps no better demonstration of the folly of human conceits than this distant image of our tiny world. To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly and compassionately with one another and to preserve and cherish that pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.

03

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Five simple rules 5條簡單規(guī)則

我們，在這一粒微塵上居住的渺小生物，是如何千方百計地把宇宙飛船送入銀河系的星星之間？就在幾世紀(jì)以前，也就是宇宙歷中的幾秒時間，我們尚不知道自己身在何方，何時。對宇宙的其他部分一無所知。我們身居囚籠，一個小宇宙里，困在堅殼之中。我們是如何逃出囚籠？是因為世世代代探索者的不懈努力，他們發(fā)自內(nèi)心地遵從五條簡單規(guī)則：

How did we tiny creatures living on that speck of dust, ever manage to figure out how to send spacecraft out among the stars of the Milky Way? Only a few centuries ago, a mere second of cosmic time, we knew nothing of where or when we are. Oblivious to the rest of the cosmos. We inhibated a kind of prison, a tiny universe, bounded by a nustshell. How did we escape from the prison? It was the work of generations of searchers, who took five simple rules to heart :

1、質(zhì)疑權(quán)威。

Question authority.

不輕信人言，包括自己在內(nèi)

No idea is true just because someone says so,including me.

2、獨立思考。

Think for yourself.

3、自我質(zhì)疑。

Question yourself.

不因自己想要相信 而相信任何事情，相信不代表能成為現(xiàn)實。

Don't believe anything just because you want to.Believing something doesn't make it so.

4、依靠觀察與實驗，以實證檢驗想法。

Test ideas by the evidence gained from observation and experiment.

如果自己喜歡的想法沒有通過全面的檢驗，它就是錯的。樂觀一點，遵循證據(jù) 無論它指向哪里，如果沒有證據(jù) 不妄下定論。

If a favorite idea fails a well-designed test, it's wrong! Get over it. Follow the evidence, wherever it leads. If you have no evidence, reserve judgment.

5、也許最重要的規(guī)則就是，要記住 你也會犯錯。

And perhaps the most important rule of all...Remember, you could be wrong.

即使是最優(yōu)秀的科學(xué)家，也曾經(jīng)在某些事情上犯錯，牛頓 愛因斯坦，還有歷史上每一位偉大的科學(xué)家，他們都犯過錯，這很正常 是人都會犯錯?？茖W(xué)讓我們不再欺騙自己，欺騙別人。

Even the best scientists have been wrong about some things. Newton, Einstein, and every other great scientist in history,?they all made mistakes.

Of course they did-- they were human. Science is a way to keep fooling ourselves, and each other.