2018-08-05 Why iPhone and Android phone prices will get even higher

Paying a thousand bucks for a phone is no longer laughable. In fact, it's probably the new normal.?

花1000美金買一部手機不再受到嘲笑了。實際上,這可能成為了一種新常態(tài)。

When Apple broke the $1,000 barrier for itsiPhone Xlast September, critics scoffed at its exorbitant price. They doubted people would reach so deeply into their wallets for a phone that outpriced two other perfectly good iPhones, theiPhone 8andiPhone 8 Plus. The critics were wrong. Apple CEO Tim Cook said in July that the iPhone X hadoutsold every other Apple devicein each week since it went on sale Nov. 3, 2017.

當去年九月份蘋果公司為iPhoneX的定價打破了1000美金壁壘時,批評家嘲笑價格過高了。他們懷疑人們會掏出可以比買兩部也相當完美的iPhone(iPhone 8,和iPhone 8Plus)的錢來買單單一部手機。這種批評錯了。蘋果的CEO提姆·庫克在七月份提到,iPhoneX自從2017年11月3日開始銷售以來,它每一周的銷量都超過任何一種其他的蘋果設(shè)備。

With strong iPhone X sales, Apple proved that mainstream buyers are willing to pay almost as much, if not more, for their cell phones as they would for a powerful laptop. And with rumors of an even pricier 2018iPhone X Plus-style phonecoming down the pike this September, Apple's moves to usher in the era of the $1,000 phone may just be getting underway.

由強勁的iPhoneX銷售,蘋果證實了主流的買家愿意花與一臺強勁的筆記本一樣(如果不是更多)的錢來買一部手機。有傳言說一臺更貴的2018款iPhoneX Plus 將會在今年九月面世,蘋果很可能正在緊鑼密鼓地邁進千元手機時代。

Apple isn't alone in boosting mobile phone prices ever higher. Creeping prices on high-end handsets fromSamsung,Huawei and even "value" darling OnePlus signal that price hikes are here to stay.

在推高手機價格方面蘋果并非孤軍奮戰(zhàn)。來自三星、華為甚至一加地高端手機爬升的價格預(yù)示著價格攀升將會成為生活的一部分并持續(xù)下去。



In just two years, the cost of Samsung's Galaxy phone for US buyers has spiked 15.1 percent from theGalaxy S7in 2016 to this year'sGalaxy S9, while the Huawei P series has climbed 33 percent since 2016 -- and that doesn't even account for the existence of a "Pro" model.

在兩年的事件里,三星的Galaxy手機在北美的價格上漲了15.1%,從2016年的S7到今年的S9,而華為的P系列從2016年起則提高了33%,這還沒有把Pro型號計算在內(nèi)。

But the largest leap of all belongs to the OnePlus phones, whose price tag since 2016 has soared 32.6 percent in the US and 42.6 percent in the UK. ?

而提價幅度最大的要屬一加手機,在美國和英國的價格漲幅分別是32.6%和42.6%。


The trend of increasingly costly handsets in the top tier underscores the cell phone's importance as an everything-device for communication, work, photography and entertainment. And as processing power, camera technology, battery life and internet data speeds improve generation after generation, the value people attach to a phone is sure to swell. ?

這種高端手機價格持續(xù)上漲的趨勢說明了手機作為全能設(shè)備的重要性:通信,工作,拍照和娛樂。而隨著一代一代的手機的計算能力、拍照科技、電池導(dǎo)航能力和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)速度不斷提升,人們自然賦予手機的價值自然要水漲船高。



"Consumers are prepared to pay a premium for a mobile phone because it is arguably the most important product in their lives," said Ben Wood, the chief research analyst at CCS Insight.

“因為手機或許是人們生活中最重要的產(chǎn)品,所以消費者愿意為手機付出更多的價錢”,本·伍德,CCS Insight的首席研究分析師如此說到。


Rising prices aren't unusual on their own. Faster, better components like processors and cameras cost more to make. The financial load of researching and developing new materials also gets folded into the final product. And inflation affects the cost of goods outside of tech, too. ?

對于手機自身來說,漲價也不奇怪。更快更好的元件,包括處理器和鏡頭需要更高的成本來制造。而研究和開發(fā)新材料的財務(wù)成本也會折算到最終產(chǎn)品里??萍贾馔ㄘ浥蛎浺苍谟绊懮唐返膬r格。

But R&D spending and inflation don't tell the entire story your phone's creeping expense. By increasing the prices of their phones with each iteration, Apple, Samsung and other leaders in the industry are creating an ultra high-end segment that can make each sale more profitable -- that's important as people start holding on to their phones longer, for three years or more. ?

但是研發(fā)上的開支和通脹并不能完全說明手機不斷上漲的價格。通過在每次迭代中提高手機價格,蘋果、三星和業(yè)界其他領(lǐng)先者正在創(chuàng)造一個高端頻段,在人們更換手機的周期越來越長(三年甚至更長)的時候,每一筆銷售賺取更多利潤變得很重要。

Yep, your phone costs more every year ?

是的,你的手機越來越貴了。

With few exceptions, phone prices from top brands are on the rise.?

除了少數(shù)的幾個例外,高端品牌的手機價格正走在上升通道。

"Although overall smartphone shipments will decline slightly in 2018, the average selling price (ASP) of a smartphone will reach $345, up 10.3 percent from the $313 ASP in 2017," IDC analyst Anthony Scarsella said in IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, shared with journalists in May. Prices will jump on the high end especially, Scarsella added.

盡管整體上智能機的出貨價在2018年會略有下降,然而單臺智能的平均銷售價(ASP)會達到345美金,相比2017年的313美金將有10.3%的上漲。在5月份,IDC的分析師安東尼·絲卡瑟拉在IDC世界季度手機軌跡大會上,告訴記者們這樣的預(yù)判。絲卡瑟拉又講到,特別是高端機的價格會上漲。

The uptick is immediately noticeable when comparing phone prices from today with the same model released just two years ago.?

當我們把今天手機的價格與兩年前同樣型號相比,價格報漲就立刻很引人注意了。


Apple's prices have risen at a steady rate for both its iPhone and iPhone Plus lines, making the iPhone X -- by far its most expensive phone ever -- a luxury spinoff.?

蘋果的價格,包括iPhone和iPhone pluse系列,都以穩(wěn)定的速度在上漲,使得iPhone X,到目前為止最貴的手機,成了一件奢侈的附屬品。

Samsung's Galaxy S, S Plus and Note prices are swinging upward too, with theS9 Plus— an iPhone Plus and iPhone X rival — inching toward iPhone X prices.

三星的Galaxy S,S Plus 和Note的價格也在一路向上,而S9 Plus作為iPhone Plus iPhone X的對手機


We see the most shocking escalation from OnePlus, whose price jumps up each time a new model arrives. OnePlus is currently on track for two variations per year. For example, theOnePlus 6debuted in June and the OnePlus 6T could appear in November. Considering the brand's upward trajectory, we can expect the OnePlus 6T to include a few more features for a higher cost than the OnePlus 6.

在一加每次發(fā)布一款新的機型的時候,它的價格就會上漲,這是我們看到的最令人震驚的漲價。一加目前是沿著一年兩款機型的速度發(fā)展。例如,在6月份發(fā)布一加 6,那么11月份就會出現(xiàn)6T??紤]到這個品牌向上的軌跡,我們可以預(yù)見到6T將會比一加6多幾個功能,而價格將更高。


"As reliance on smartphones has increased drastically over a short amount of time, the increase in quality and components across the industry required to meet high performance demands has also risen," a OnePlus representative said.

由于在很短的時間內(nèi)人們對于智能機的依賴大幅增加,因而就需要這個行業(yè)投入質(zhì)量更高、數(shù)量更多的原件來滿足更高的性能。一加的代表如此發(fā)言。

Over at LG, "Key factors include the cost of components, competitor pricing, carrier incentives, tariffs, etc.," Ken Hong, LG's senior director of global communications, said in an email. "Fact is, these input costs are rising so we're forced to follow suit," adding that introducing more variants like the LG V35 has the positive effect of lowering the price of the previous model, in this case the LG V30.

在LG,關(guān)鍵因素包括元器件的價格,競爭者的定價,運營商的刺激政策,關(guān)稅,等等。在一封郵件中,Ken Hone,作為LG全球通信的資深主管是這樣解釋的。事實是,采購成本在增加,我們不得不跟隨。 他接著說由于引入了更多變量,比如LG V35,在先前的型號(LG V30)上有了降低價格的正面效果。

(CNET reached out to all manufacturers mentioned in this story for comment.)

CNET指的是本文中提到的所有制造商。

Interestingly,Google has kept its prices steady with the second generationPixel 2andPixel 2 XL. However, if the Pixel 3 we expect in October finally takes on the dual rear camera, all-screen, no bezel look that defines current smartphone design, Google could justify pushing up the price to match everyone else.

有意思的是,谷歌在它的第二代手機Pixel 2和Pixel 2 XL還是保持了穩(wěn)定的價格。不過,如果我們預(yù)計在十月份發(fā)布的Pixel 2最終裝載了雙后攝像頭,全屏,無bezel外觀(那會定義現(xiàn)在的智能手機的設(shè)計),谷歌將把它的價格推到與其他人持平的位置。

Samsung is aware of its role in ballooning handset prices. In an earnings call this week, the brand promised to keep its forthcoming Note 9 "reasonably priced" when Samsung announces the phone on Aug. 9. Last year'sNote 8sold for around $950 in the US, £869 in the UK and AU$1,499 in Australia, already pricing them at the top of the market.

三星已經(jīng)意識到在推高手機價格上它所起的作用。在本周的收入會議上,這個品牌承諾將讓即將到來的Note 9有合理的定價,將于8月9日發(fā)布。 去年,Note 8在美國的售價是950美金,在英國售價是869英鎊,而在澳大利亞是1499澳元,已經(jīng)是全球市場的最高價格了。

With new tech on deck for the Note 9's S Pen stylus and Apple teeing up itsnext crop of iPhones, most likely for September, it'd be unwise to expect phones like these to drop below their current prices.

而對于很可能在九月份發(fā)布的采用了 ?新技術(shù)的Note 9 S Pen Stylus 和蘋果的 下一代iPhone,期待這樣的手機以低于目前的價格銷售,顯然是不太明智的。

But making phones is more expensive now, right?

但是制造手機是更昂貴的,對吧?

Phones, like all electronics, are composed of parts sourced from various suppliers, and if the cost of those parts goes up, it's a sure bet the cost of the phones will, too.

手機,與所有電子產(chǎn)品一樣,是由來自不同供應(yīng)商的各種元器件組合在一起的。如果這些配件的成本上漲得了,那么手機的價格肯定無疑也會上漲。


Demand for more storage over the past few years has triggered price hikes, pushing up the cost of memory and prompting suppliers to invest in building more factories to meet the demand, according to Wood.?

過去幾年對庫存的需求已經(jīng)觸發(fā)了價格的波動,將內(nèi)存的價格一路推高,促使供應(yīng)商們投資更多的工廠以滿足市場需要,據(jù)Wood說。


Adding more sophisticated cameras like the iPhone X's 3D depth sensing front-facing camera, or more lenses, like the Huawei P20 Pro's three rear shooters, costs more too. And so do materials like glass or ceramic for a phone's backing, or sturdy aerospace-grade aluminum for the frame.

添加更多復(fù)雜的鏡頭比如iPhone X上3D深度感應(yīng)前攝像頭,或者更多鏡頭,比如華為P20 Pro的三個后端攝像頭,都會花費更多成本。而在手機后蓋上使用諸如玻璃或陶瓷,或者邊框上使用堅固的宇宙飛船級別的鋁材料,都會提高成本。

You can bet that the first phone to debut a?diamond glass screen?or the new, smudge-resistant?Vibrant Satin Corning Gorilla Glass?won't be cheap. It's also expensive for companies like Samsung to build a whole new manufacturing process for elements like curved glass and flexible OLED displays.

你可以確定第一部使用了鉆石屏幕或者新的防污玻璃的手機不會便宜。對于三星這樣的公司來說,建造一套全新的制造流程以生產(chǎn)曲面玻璃或者可彎曲的OLED顯示屏要耗費巨資。



Yet while the cost of all these components -- called the Bill of Materials, or BOM -- can partially explain why high-end phones cost more each year, many experts say that phonemakers are padding their profits.

今晚這些元器件的成本,一般稱作BOM表,可以部分地解釋為什么高端手機一年比一年貴,很多專家卻說手機廠商在擴充他們的利潤。

"There's going to be a huge immediate backlash on social media: 'What an outrage!' and quietly people will go off and buy it." said Ben Wood, CCS Insight.

在社交媒體上,會有一場巨大的快速的backlash,多么激烈反應(yīng)啊,而靜默的人們則走開去買手機。CCS Insight的Ben Wood說。

"I certainly accept that some elements of the cost came from the components and the manufacturing process… but not to that order of magnitude," Wood said on a phone call in July. "I also believe that Apple made a strategic decision to increase the price of the flagship iPhone to maximize the returns on a really amazing portfolio."

我自然可以接受來自元器件和制造流程的成本,但是對于如此體量的訂單我卻難以接受。七月份在一次通話中Wood說,我也相信蘋果制定了戰(zhàn)略性的決定以提高旗艦手機的價格,從而 最大化收益。

Carolina Milanesi, an analyst with Creative Strategies, agrees.

一位創(chuàng)造性策略的分析師Carolina Milanesi同意這種說法。

"There is certainly more going into these phones than ever before," she said in an email. "The BOM is certainly growing for these devices, but I do think that there is a premium margin applied by the brands to their flagship products because they are status symbols."

她在一封email里表明,毋庸置疑比以往需要投入更多到這些手機上,這些設(shè)備的BOM表肯定要增長,但是我想一定有一個 ? 范圍適用于這些品牌的旗艦手機,因為他們是身份的象征。

Where's the price ceiling?

哪里是價格的天花板呢?

Apple's $1,000 iPhone X (technically $999 without tax), is clearly just the beginning.

蘋果的1000美金的iPhone X, 很明顯才剛剛開始。

"As long as the phones are our main go-to computing device throughout the day, buyers will be willing to spend more," Milanesi said.

只要手機是我們?nèi)粘W铑l繁觸碰的計算設(shè)備,買家會愿意花費更多來購買的。 Milanesi說。

In setting the precedent for a $1,000 phone that people are proven to buy, Apple has established a new price point not just for itself but for the mobile industry as a whole.

在設(shè)置了1000美金手機的先例,并證明人們會購買,蘋果不僅僅為它自己,也為整個行業(yè)建立了一個新的價格點。

In making Apple's most expensive phone ever, the company completely overhauled the phone's design, removing the iconic home button and becoming the first to use 3D depth-sensing technology to unlock a device, with no fingerprint backup.?

為了制造蘋果歷史上最昂貴的手機,它大刀闊斧地改變了手機的設(shè)計,移除了標志性的home鍵,并首先使用3D深度感應(yīng)技術(shù)來解鎖手機,同時不用指紋做備用。

This design allowed Apple to give the iPhone X a larger screen than the iPhone 8 Plus, on a body that's almost as small as the iPhone 8. Finally, Apple enforced the iPhone X's "premium" look and feel by giving this device exclusive features, like 3D animated emojis, called Animoji, which the other two iPhones for 2017 don't have.

這種設(shè)計使得蘋果可以在iPhone X上擁有一個比iPhone Plus還要大的屏幕,要知道它的尺寸幾乎是和iPhone 一樣。 最終,蘋果通過加載一些獨有的特征,比如3D動畫表情包(Animoji),這個在2017年其他兩個iPhone型號上是沒有的,賦予了iPhone X ?高貴的外貌和感覺。

Now, as we head into the fall's iPhone season, Apple has a chance to iterate on a new line of iPhone X phones that resets the iPhone's tippy-toe price point.

現(xiàn)在,當我們馬上要進入今年秋天的iPhone季,蘋果有機會迭代出新的iPhone X 產(chǎn)品線,刷新iPhone 的偷偷摸摸的價格點。

"There is great scope to have [an iPhone] X Plus. Why wouldn't that be $1,200?," Wood said, adding that people would snap up an even more expensive iPhone X. "There's going to be a huge immediate backlash on social media: 'What an outrage!' and quietly people will go off and buy it."

iPhone X Plus可能的范圍很大。為什么不能是1200美金呢?Wood說,進一步說人們會搶購一個更加昂貴的iPhone X。社交媒體上又會發(fā)生巨大的立刻的撕裂:“多么大膽的舉動?。 币约鞍察o的人們則是走開去買手機。

With today's iPhone X nudging prices skyward, Samsung, Huawei, OnePlus and others have a reason to follow suit. For example, even if the OnePlus 6 costs roughly 30 percent more than the same model did two years ago, you'll still only spend about half as much for it as you would for an iPhone X, a relative value that many find easy enough to swallow for a "cheaper" phone with high-end parts.

既然今天iPhone X悄悄推動價格向上,三星、華為、一加和其他廠商就有了一個理由去跟隨。例如,即使一加6plus比兩年前的同款手機貴了30%,你還是只花了約iPhone X一半的價錢買到一部具有高端配置的手機,這樣用相對的價值去吞下更便宜的手機是不是顯得更容易些?


"When Apple announced the iPhone X for a thousand bucks... they did the whole industry a favor," Wood said. "That gave all the other manufacturers some breathing space and I can imagine there was a certain delight in the corridors of Samsung and Huawei and others."

當蘋果宣布iPhone X的價格約為1000美金時,他們?yōu)檎麄€行業(yè)做了件好事,Wood說。這件事為其他生產(chǎn)廠商制造了一些生存空間,我可以想象在三星、華為和其他廠商的走廊上他們是相當愉快的。

In other words, while Apple might pocket the most profit, its audacious iPhone X price tag helps competitors make more money per phone, too.

換句話說,蘋果或許獲取了最多的利潤,它的大膽地iPhone價格簽同時也幫助競爭對手們賺更多的單機利潤。


Don't worry, midrange phones are still affordable

別擔心,中端手機還是買得起的。

High prices on top-tier phones may not mean that the cost of every phone will rise.?

高端手機的高價格并不意味著每一部手機的成本都會上升。


We continue to see fierce competition in the middle and low end where phones like theMotorola Moto G6andE5families turn out excellent budget handsets for just about the same price each year: $250, £219 or $399 in the case of the Moto G6.

我們接下來看看再中端和低端手機市場的慘烈競爭, 比如 摩托羅拉的Moto G6和E5系列,作為性價比頗高的手機,Moto G6每年都保持相同的價格 250美金/219英鎊/399澳元。

Huawei's Honor brand also notably produces midprice, midtier devices that strike a balance between value and cost, often while hewing to popular designs and features, like slim bezels and dual, portrait-mode cameras that people crave. Xiaomi,Nokia, Oppo,Asus and other brands also help fill the gap worldwide by quietly cranking out basic, affordable phones for cost-sensitive buyers.

華為的榮耀品牌也是出了名的中端配置,中端價格,在價值和價格方面保持了一種平衡,同時砍掉一些潮流的設(shè)計和特點,比如纖巧的前擋板和呼聲很高的雙攝人像攝像頭。小米,諾基亞、OPPO,Asus,及其他品牌也在低調(diào)地幫忙填補中間的空檔,粗制濫造一些基本款、負擔得起的手機提供給價格敏感的購買人群。

So while the shiniest, most powerful devices are still locked on a path to their highest prices yet, there's still a strong demand for midrange and entry-level phones aimed at people with tighter budgets or more basic needs.

所以,當最耀眼、功能最強大的設(shè)備鎖定在他們的高價格這條道上,對中端和入門級的手機依然有強勁的需求,來滿足錢包吃緊的人們或者更基礎(chǔ)的需求。

If a $1,000 phone sounds too outrageous, you may need to find beauty in a more modest phone, or get over the sticker shock and accept that the days of a $500 flagship phone are long behind us.

如果1000美金的手機聽起來有點嚇人,你可能需要在更弱一些機型中發(fā)現(xiàn)他們美妙之處,或者適應(yīng)你的標簽震驚,接受用500美金買到一臺旗艦手機的日子已經(jīng)過去很久了。

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