第二編 貨幣的價值
第十二章 貨幣客觀交換價值變動的社會后果
章節(jié)大綱
一、現(xiàn)在商品與未來商品的交換
People often exchange present goods for future goods, for example by lending money today (a present good) in exchange for a promise of repayment of future principal plus interest, or by agreeing today to exchange goods against money in the future. Although business-people take great caution regarding changes in the prices of particular commodities, they typically do not take into account the possible fall in the objective value of money itself. To the extent that people do protect themselves in contracts from possible changes in the value of a currency, it is only a paper currency the value of which might fall relative to a currency backed by gold. Hardly anyone (at the time of Mises’s writing) realizes that the exchange value of gold itself could change during the length of a contract.
人們經(jīng)常用現(xiàn)在的商品換取未來的商品，例如今天借出貨幣（現(xiàn)在的商品），以換取未來的本金和利息的償還承諾，或者今天同意在未來用商品換取貨幣。雖然商人們對特定商品價格的變化非常謹(jǐn)慎，但他們通常沒有考慮到貨幣本身的客觀價值可能下降。如果人們確實在合同中保護(hù)自己不受通貨價值可能變化的影響，那么它只是一種紙幣，其價值可能相對于黃金支持的通貨而言下跌。幾乎沒有人（在米塞斯寫作時）意識到黃金本身的交換價值可能會在合約期限內(nèi)發(fā)生變化。
If changes in the purchasing power of money could be anticipated, then their impact could be offset by altering the terms of credit transactions. If both lenders and borrowers expect a weaker currency in the future (i.e., rising prices of most goods and services quoted in the currency), then lenders will insist on charging a higher interest rate and borrowers will be willing to pay it, because loans will be repaid in weaker currency.
如果可以預(yù)期貨幣購買力的變化，那么可以通過改變信貸交易條款來抵消其影響。如果貸款人和借款人都預(yù)期未來通貨會走弱（即，以通貨報價的大多數(shù)商品和服務(wù)的價格上漲），那么貸款人將堅持收取更高的利息，而借款人也將愿意支付，因為貸款將使用貶值的通貨償還。
二、經(jīng)濟計算與會計
Accountancy is imperfect in several respects. For example, it relies on subjective estimates of uncertain factors, such as the value of inventory (which is dependent on future demand) and the likelihood of default by the issuers of bonds. Yet another major flaw is that accountants use monetary figures as if they were akin to measures of length and weight. But since the purchasing power of money itself can change, accountancy is analogous to an architect designing blueprints in a world where rulers have variable lengths. Monetary depreciation can cause businesspeople to overestimate their profits and unwittingly engage in capital consumption.
會計在幾個方面是不完善的。例如，它依賴于對不確定因素的主觀估計，如存貨價值（取決于未來需求）和債券發(fā)行人違約的可能性。另一個主要的缺陷是，會計師們像使用長度和重量這種度量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)一樣使用貨幣數(shù)字。但由于貨幣本身的購買力可能會發(fā)生變化，因此會計就像一個建筑師在一個標(biāo)尺長度可變的世界里設(shè)計藍(lán)圖。貨幣貶值會導(dǎo)致商人們高估他們的利潤，并在不經(jīng)意中進(jìn)行了資本消耗。
三、當(dāng)僅使用一種貨幣時貨幣價值變動的社會后果
If the quantity of a commodity such as coal is suddenly and unexpectedly increased, it will cause its price to drop. This will hurt those people who were holding large amounts of coal (such as the owners of coal mines and wholesalers) at the moment of the price drop, and it will help the consumers of coal (such as the owners of railroads and power plants). However, the gains will exceed the losses for the community as a whole, because the greater quantity of coal can yield more goods and services.
如果煤炭等商品的數(shù)量突然意外地增加，將導(dǎo)致其價格下降。這將損害那些在價格下跌時持有大量煤炭的人（如煤礦所有者和批發(fā)商們），并將幫助煤炭消費者（如鐵路和發(fā)電廠的所有者）。然而，整個社區(qū)的收益將超過損失，因為更多的煤炭可以產(chǎn)出更多的商品和服務(wù)。
Things are different with the money commodity. Insofar as its monetary services are concerned, additional quantities confer no net benefits on the community. When new quantities of money enter the economy (from a new gold mine, for example), it spreads unevenly throughout the system. The chief beneficiaries are the original owners, then those upon whom they first spend the new money, and so on. The losers are those whose incomes (measured in money) do not rise even as they see prices going up in the things that they buy. Wealth is redistributed from some groups to others, but the community as a whole is not made richer by the influx of new money (except possibly indirectly if the beneficiaries of the inflation make more productive use of their redistributed wealth than the former owners).
貨幣商品的情況有所不同。就其貨幣服務(wù)而言，額外的數(shù)量不會給社區(qū)帶來凈收益。當(dāng)新的貨幣進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟體時（例如來自一個新的金礦），它在整個系統(tǒng)中的分布不均勻。主要受益人是原始所有者，然后是與他們第一次花“新”錢進(jìn)行交易的人，等等。輸家是那些即使看到購買的東西價格上漲但自己的收入（以貨幣衡量）卻沒有上漲的人。財富從一些群體重新分配給其他群體，但新貨幣的流入并不能使整個社區(qū)變得更富裕（除非通貨膨脹的受益者能夠比以前的財富所有者更有效地利用他們的再分配財富，來間接地使整個社區(qū)變得更富裕）。
四、兩種類型貨幣間交換比率變動的結(jié)果
The uneven increase in prices due to an influx of new money (either from gold discoveries or from the issuance of more paper money and fiduciary media) can lead to redistribution even among groups using different currencies. For a modern example, suppose initially that one U.S. dollar trades for one euro, and that the price of a bushel of wheat initially is $5 and also €5. Then the Federal Reserve promises to sharply increase the quantity of dollars over the next few months, so that speculators on the foreign exchange market push down the value of the dollar so that it now trades for only one-half of a euro.
新貨幣的涌入（無論是來自黃金發(fā)現(xiàn)，還是來自更多紙幣和信用媒介的發(fā)行）引起了價格的不均勻上漲，可能會導(dǎo)致使用不同貨幣的集團之間發(fā)生財富再分配。舉一個現(xiàn)代的例子，假設(shè)最初一美元兌換一歐元，一蒲式耳小麥的價格最初是5美元，也就是5歐元。然后美聯(lián)儲承諾在未來幾個月內(nèi)大幅增加美元數(shù)量，使外匯市場的投機者壓低美元的價值，使一美元現(xiàn)在只能交易半歐元。
In this situation, the price of U.S. wheat would be €2.50 from the perspective of European millers, while wheat purchased from European farmers would be the original €5. The demand for American exported wheat would increase, while the American demand for European wheat would collapse. The prices of wheat in the two currencies would quickly adjust until balance had been restored, with U.S. wheat selling for (say) $8 and European wheat selling for €4. But even after this quick adjustment, there would be a lasting advantage given to American wheat exporters, because they could sell wheat for $8 instead of $5, even though their expenses (on labor, tractors, etc.) had not yet risen proportionally. European millers and consumers of bread would also benefit, because from their perspective the price of wheat would have fallen from €5 to €4 per bushel, even while their money incomes stayed the same. Two large groups of losers would be U.S. consumers and European wheat farmers. Only after all U.S. domestic prices had adjusted to the new quantity of dollars would the redistribution cease.
在這種情況下，從歐洲面粉廠的角度來看，美國小麥的價格將是2.50歐元，而從歐洲農(nóng)民手中購買小麥的價格仍是原來的5歐元。對于美國出口的小麥的需求將增加，而美國對歐洲小麥的需求將銳減。兩種貨幣的小麥價格將迅速調(diào)整，直到恢復(fù)平衡，美國小麥?zhǔn)蹆r（比如）8美元，歐洲小麥?zhǔn)蹆r4歐元。但即使在這種快速調(diào)整之后，美國小麥出口商仍將獲得持久的優(yōu)勢，因為他們可以以8美元而不是5美元的價格出售小麥，盡管他們的開支（勞動力，拖拉機等）尚未按比例上漲。歐洲的面粉和面包消費者也會受益，因為從他們的角度來看，即使他們的貨幣收入保持不變，小麥的價格也會從每蒲式耳5歐元降至4歐元。兩大類輸家將是美國消費者和歐洲小麥種植戶。只有在所有美國國內(nèi)價格調(diào)整到新的美元數(shù)量后，再分配才會停止。
技術(shù)說明
On pages 195–96, Mises writes, “When anybody buys (or sells) corn, cotton, or sugar futures ... he is well aware of the risks that are involved in the transaction. He will carefully weigh the chances of future variations in prices, and often take steps, by means of insurance or hedging transactions ... to reduce the aleatory factor in his dealings.” His purpose in this passage is to contrast the businessman’s wariness concerning individual price changes over time, with the businessman’s (at that time) ignorance of changes in the purchasing power of money over time. However, Mises’s description is difficult to explain to a novice, because normally economists would describe the use of futures contracts as themselves “insurance” or “hedging” operations. For example, if a farmer knows he will have a large harvest of wheat to sell in six months, and his ability to make his mortgage payments and pay other expenses depends critically on the price of wheat, the farmer may want to “l(fā)ock in” the price by selling futures contracts in wheat. On the other side of the transaction, a large operation that makes bread may itself want to lock in the price of one of its major inputs, so that a sudden price spike won’t cripple operations. The bread producer would thus gladly buy the futures contracts issued by the farmer. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement in which no money changes hands in the present, but the two parties today lock in the price at which they will exchange wheat for money in the future. (Technically we have described a forward contract, which is economically very similar to a futures contract.) The use of futures contracts and other derivatives can allow market participants to hedge away their exposure to particular price swings, where they forfeit the potential benefits of a favorable move while avoiding the downside of an unfavorable move. This is the sense in which such contracts can serve as insurance.
在英文版第195-196頁，米塞斯寫道：“當(dāng)有人購買（或出售）玉米、棉花或糖的期貨時…他非常清楚交易中涉及的風(fēng)險。他將仔細(xì)權(quán)衡未來價格變動的可能性，并經(jīng)常采取措施，通過保險或“對沖交易”…以減少交易中的“偶然”因素?！彼谶@段文章中的目的是對比商人對個體價格隨時間變化的謹(jǐn)慎，以及商人（當(dāng)時）對貨幣購買力隨時間變化的無知。然而，米塞斯的描述很難向新手解釋，因為經(jīng)濟學(xué)家通常會將“期貨合約”的使用描述為“保險”或“對沖”操作。例如，如果一個農(nóng)民知道他將在六個月內(nèi)賣出一大批小麥，并且他支付抵押貸款和其它費用的能力主要取決于小麥的價格，那么他可能希望通過賣出小麥期貨合約來“鎖定”價格。在交易的另一面，一個生產(chǎn)面包的大型企業(yè)本身可能希望鎖定其主要投入之一的價格，這樣突然的價格上漲就不會對其業(yè)務(wù)造成重大打擊。因此，面包生產(chǎn)商很樂意購買農(nóng)民發(fā)行的期貨合約。這是一種互惠互利的安排，目前沒有發(fā)生貨幣換手，但今天雙方鎖定了他們將來用小麥交易貨幣的價格。（從技術(shù)上講，我們描述了一個“遠(yuǎn)期合約”，在經(jīng)濟上與期貨合約非常相似。）期貨合約和其它衍生品的使用可以讓市場參與者對沖特定價格波動的風(fēng)險，在這種情況下，他們放棄了有利舉措的潛在好處，同時避免了不利舉措的消極影響。這就是這種合同可以作為保險的意義。
Mises warns (pp. 204–06) that a depreciating currency can lead to capital consumption. For a simple example, suppose a man spends $100,000 on a machine that lasts for ten years. If prices are stable (and disregarding interest), the man needs to earn at least $10,000 each year in sales revenue over and above labor and other expenses, in order to account for the depreciation on his machine. If inflation causes him to earn far more than he originally anticipated over the years from the sale of his goods, after setting aside $10,000 each year the man might spend the remaining “profit” on fancy dinners and vacation cruises. However, after ten years (with $100,000 in hand, disregarding interest) the man may discover that because of the fall in the purchasing power of money, a new machine has a price of $200,000. Thus the man unwittingly consumed half of his capital over the decade: he started with one new machine and ended up with the means to buy only half of a new machine. The man realizes that his fancy dinners and cruises were funded not out of profits but by eating away at his business assets.
米塞斯警告（英文版第204-206頁），貨幣貶值可導(dǎo)致資本消耗。舉個簡單的例子，假設(shè)一個男人花10萬美元買一臺可以使用十年的機器。如果價格穩(wěn)定（并且無視利息），那么除去人工和其它費用之外，此人每年至少需要賺取10,000美元的銷售收入，以抵消其機器的折舊。如果通貨膨脹使他從銷售商品中賺取的收入遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過他最初的預(yù)期，那么在每年撥出1萬美元之后，他可能會把剩余的“利潤”花在高檔晚餐和度假游輪上。然而，十年后（手頭有10萬美元，無視利息），該男子可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，由于貨幣購買力下降，一臺新機器的價格為20萬美元。因此，這名男子在過去的十年間不知不覺地消耗了一半的資本：他從一臺新機器開始，以只夠買半臺新機器的財產(chǎn)結(jié)束。該男子意識到，他花在高檔晚餐和度假游輪上的資金，不是來自利潤，而是來自蠶食他的商業(yè)資產(chǎn)。
新術(shù)語
Capital consumption: A metaphor denoting the reduction in capital because of a failure to reinvest enough out of current output.
資本消耗：一種隱喻，表示由于未能從當(dāng)前產(chǎn)出中獲取足夠的再投資而導(dǎo)致資本減少。Futures contract: A standardized contract, traded on an organized exchange, where two parties agree to exchange a good at a specified price (the futures price) at a specified future date (the delivery date). As conditions change and alter the futures price pertaining to the delivery date, the exchange will credit or debit the accounts of the buyer and seller of the original futures contract on a daily basis to reflect the change. (If the futures price goes up, the buyer gains and the seller loses, etc.) These daily episodes of marking-to-market restore the market value of the futures contract itself to zero. Upon delivery, the seller of the futures contract delivers the good, while the buyer pays the current spot price for that date, not the futures price as originally specified.
期貨合約：在有組織的交易所交易的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化合約，雙方同意在指定的未來日期（交割日期）以指定價格（期貨價格）交換商品。隨著條件的變化和交割日期貨價格的變化，交易所將每天對原始期貨合約的買方和賣方的賬戶進(jìn)行貸記或借記以反映該變化。（如果期貨價格上漲，買方獲利，賣方虧損等）這些按市價計價的日常事件將期貨合約本身的市場價值恢復(fù)為零。交割時，期貨合約的賣方交付商品，而買方支付該日期的現(xiàn)貨價格，而不是最初指定的期貨價格。Forward contract: Similar to a futures contract, though a forward contract is not standardized. Furthermore, there is no daily marking-to-market. On the delivery date, the buyer pays the forward price as originally specified in the contract. Thus the forward contract can achieve a positive or negative market value, as conditions change and cause the actual spot price (on the delivery date) to move above or below the originally specified forward price.
遠(yuǎn)期合約：與期貨合約類似，但遠(yuǎn)期合約并未標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化。此外，沒有每日市值計價。在交割日期，買方支付合約中最初規(guī)定的遠(yuǎn)期價格。因此，隨著條件發(fā)生變化并導(dǎo)致實際現(xiàn)貨價格（在交割日期）高于或低于最初指定的遠(yuǎn)期價格，遠(yuǎn)期合約可以實現(xiàn)正或負(fù)的市場價值。Hedging transaction: A financial transaction in which an individual attempts to reduce his or her exposure to a market outcome. For example, someone who believes that Stock XYZ will out-perform most other stocks might “go long” by purchasing several thousand shares of it. But to hedge himself against a general fall in the market, he might also “go short” an index fund holding all the stocks in the S&P 500. Thus, even if XYZ falls in price, the investor will still make money, so long as Stock XYZ drops by a smaller amount than most other stocks.
套期保值交易：一種金融交易，個人試圖通過這種交易減少其暴露于市場結(jié)果的風(fēng)險。例如，有人認(rèn)為XYZ股票的表現(xiàn)會超過其它大多數(shù)股票，他可能會通過購買幾千股XYZ股票來“做多”。但為了對沖市場普遍下跌的風(fēng)險，他可能還會“做空”一只持有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)所有股票的指數(shù)基金。因此，即使XYZ股價下跌，只要其下跌幅度小于大多數(shù)其他股票，投資者仍然會賺錢。Aleatory: Dependent on chance, luck, or an uncertain outcome.
偶然（Aleatory）：依賴于機會、運氣或不確定的結(jié)果。
研究問題
Relate the following comment to Mises’s earlier discussion (p. 61) of the hypothetical possibility of fiat money: “Lenders and borrowers are not in the habit of allowing for possible future fluctuations in the objective exchange value of money.” (p. 195)
將以下評論與米塞斯之前關(guān)于法定貨幣假設(shè)可能性的討論（英文版第61頁）聯(lián)系起來：“放款人和借款人不習(xí)慣考慮到未來貨幣客觀交換價值的可能波動?！保ㄓ⑽陌娴?95頁）If the purchasing power of money unexpectedly falls, who is hurt—creditors or debtors? (p. 200)
如果貨幣的購買力意外下降，誰是受害者——債權(quán)人還是債務(wù)人？（英文版第200頁）What is necessary to eliminate the undesirable consequences of “unlimited inflationary policy”? (p. 203)
消除“無限通貨膨脹政策”的不良后果的必要性是什么？（英文版第203頁）Mises writes, “If the objective exchange value of all the stocks of money in the world could be instantaneously and in equal proportion increased or decreased, [and] if all at once the money-prices of all goods and services could rise or fall uniformly, the relative wealth of individual economic agents would not be affected” (p. 207). Does Mises’s argument assume that everyone holds the same fraction of his or wealth in the form of cash balances, or does it also work if some people hold (say) large amounts of real estate, while others hold mostly cash? (Keep in mind that for this argument Mises has assumed away the problem of contracts for future goods.)
米塞斯寫道：“如果世界上所有存量貨幣的客觀交換價值能夠瞬間以相同的比例增加或減少，[并且]如果所有商品和服務(wù)的貨幣價格能夠一致地上升或下降，那么個別經(jīng)濟主體的相對財富不會受到影響”（英文版第207頁）。米塞斯的論點是假設(shè)每個人都以現(xiàn)金余額的形式持有相同比例的財富，還是假設(shè)一些人持有（比如）大量房地產(chǎn)而其他人大部分持有現(xiàn)金，它也同樣有效？（請記住，在這一論點中，米塞斯已經(jīng)排除了期貨合約的問題。）Explain:“Europe had exported ships and rails, metal goods and textiles, furniture and machines, for gold which it little needed or did not need at all, for what it had already was enough for all its monetary transactions.” (p. 211)
解釋：“歐洲曾經(jīng)出口船只和鐵路、金屬制品和紡織品、家具和機器，以換取它幾乎不需要或根本不需要的黃金，因為已有的黃金足夠進(jìn)行所有的貨幣交易了?！保ㄓ⑽陌娴?11頁）
