世界銀行本月公布了一項新的“人力資本”衡量排名，涵蓋157個國家，綜合了五項健康和教育指標來衡量如今出生的人可能會積累起多大的人力資本。世行希望這個指數(shù)能促使各國實施改革：它的模型認為，如果一個國家的人力資本分數(shù)翻了一倍，從長遠來看，與這一分數(shù)保持不變的情形相比，該國的人均GDP會多一倍。
人力資本
Human capital
勵志的隱喻
A motivational metaphor
Two new rankings show which countries are raising the most productive humans
兩項新排名顯示哪些國家會培養(yǎng)出最具生產(chǎn)力的國民
DESPITE their dour reputation, economists frequently play with metaphor and simile, just like literary folk. One familiar example is “human capital”, as Deirdre McCloskey of the University of Illinois has pointed out. Economists have been likening knowledge, skill and stamina to physical capital, such as plant and equipment, since Adam Smith, who counted “the acquired and useful abilities” of a country’s people as one of several kinds of fixed capital, alongside “useful machines” and “profitable buildings”.
盡管經(jīng)濟學家以不茍言笑聞名，他們和文人雅士一樣愛用比喻。伊利諾伊大學的迪爾德麗·麥克洛斯基（Deirdre McCloskey）曾指出，一個熟悉的例子是“人力資本”。亞當·斯密將一國民眾“習得的有用能力”也算在幾種固定資本之內(nèi)，和“有用的機器”、“可盈利的建筑”放在了一道。自他之后，經(jīng)濟學家一直都將知識、技能以及精力比作像工廠和設(shè)備那樣的有形資本。
But unlike poets, economists prefer to quantify their analogies—to measure whether thou art 15% or 20% more lovely and more temperate. In that spirit, the World Bank this month unveiled a new measure of human capital for 157 countries. Its index combines five indicators of health and education (including the chances of dying before the age of five and between the ages of 15 to 60, the chances of stunted growth, the years of education an average child will complete by age 18, and the score they can expect on school tests) to measure how much human capital a person born today is likely to accumulate. It follows a similar measure for 195 countries from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published in the Lancet, a medical journal, in September.
但和詩人不同的是，經(jīng)濟學家更喜歡把自己的類比量化——弄清楚“你比春日更可愛溫和”【譯注：此句出自莎士比亞十四行詩】的程度是15%還是20%？本著這樣的精神，世界銀行本月公布了一項新的人力資本衡量排名，涵蓋157個國家。其指數(shù)綜合了五項健康和教育指標，來衡量如今出生的人可能會積累起多大的人力資本。它們包括：在5歲前死亡的概率、在15歲到60歲之間死亡的概率、發(fā)育遲緩的概率、普通孩子到18歲之前接受教育的年限，以及他們在學校測試中有望獲得的分數(shù)。在這之前，健康指標和評估研究所（IHME）9月在醫(yī)學雜志《柳葉刀》（Lancet）上發(fā)表了一個類似的排名，涵蓋195個國家。
Both indices try to reflect the quality of education, not just the quantity. A growing number of countries now take part in initiatives like PISA, the Programme for International Student Assessment, which in 2015 tested pupils in 72 countries. With a little effort, these various measures can be rendered comparable. That allows researchers to calculate what a year of schooling is worth in different parts of the world. For example, the World Bank calculates that a year of education in South Africa is worth only about 60% as much as one in Singapore.
兩個指數(shù)都試圖反映教育的質(zhì)量，而不僅僅是數(shù)量。如今有越來越多的國家參與國際學生評估項目（PISA）之類的項目，2015年有72個國家的學生接受了PISA測試。稍稍費些功夫就能在各種衡量標準中找出可比性，研究人員也就得以估算出一年的學校教育在世界不同的地方成效分別幾何。例如，世行計算得出，在南非接受一年教育的效果大約只相當于在新加坡接受一年教育成效的60%。
Unsurprisingly, the correlation between the two indices is close (see chart). America ranks 24th on the World Bank’s new index, and 27th on the IHME’s. China ranks 46th on the first and 44th on the latter. But there are also notable discrepancies. On the bank’s index, Bangladesh does better than India, Vietnam better than Malaysia, and Britain better than France. None of that is true in the IHME’s rankings.
毫不意外，兩個指數(shù)之間存在緊密的相關(guān)性（見圖表）。美國在世行的指數(shù)中排名第24，在IHME的指數(shù)中排在第27。中國的排名分別為第46和44。但兩者間也有顯著的差異。在世行的指數(shù)中，孟加拉的名次優(yōu)于印度，越南優(yōu)于馬來西亞，英國優(yōu)于法國。而在IHME的指數(shù)中不是這樣。
Different countries also stand at the top of the two tables. Singapore leads the bank’s ranking. But it lies 13th in the IHME index, which instead places Finland top. The divergence reflects two differences in approach. The World Bank’s method ignores higher education (which is even more prevalent in Finland than in Singapore). And its measures of health (stunting and survival rates) are too crude to distinguish between Singapore’s healthy population and Finland’s even healthier one.
在兩項排名中居首的國家也不相同。新加坡在世行的排名中位列第一，但在IHME的指數(shù)中排名第13，第一是芬蘭。這種差異源于兩個指數(shù)在衡量方式上的兩點不同。世行忽略高等教育（芬蘭的高等教育普及率比新加坡還要高），而且它對健康狀況的衡量（發(fā)育遲緩率和存活率）太過粗糙，無法在健康的新加坡人口和甚至還要更健康的芬蘭人口之間做出區(qū)分。
The indices are not just exercises in measurement. They are also motivational tools. The World Bank worries that governments underinvest in human capital, because the rewards arrive painfully slowly and often without fanfare. By ranking countries, these indices may appeal to governments’ national pride and competitive spirit, much like the bank’s annual assessments of the ease of doing business around the world.
編制這兩個指數(shù)不僅僅是為了做評估。它們還是種激勵手段。世界銀行擔心各國政府對人力資本投資不足，因為這種投資收獲回報的過程極其緩慢，通常也得不到大張旗鼓的宣傳。通過為各國排定座次，這樣的指數(shù)也許會喚起各國政府的民族自豪感和競爭意識，差不多就像世行每年對世界各國營商便利度的評估一樣。
The two indices are also intended to be responsive to reforms. Although investments in human capital can take decades to pay off, countries will not have to wait as long to rise up the two league tables. Both indices are designed to be forward-looking, measuring the human capital that will be accumulated if a newborn grows up in the health and educational conditions prevailing now. For example, France’s decision to start mandatory schooling at age three will improve its ranking when the first toddlers are enrolled, long before the economy feels the benefit.
兩個指數(shù)也積極將各國實施的改革考慮在內(nèi)。雖然投資人力資本的成果可能要幾十年才能顯現(xiàn)，但各國并不是也得等個幾十年才能在兩個排名中提高名次。兩個指數(shù)本身就都具前瞻性，估測的是一個新生兒若在當下普遍的健康及教育條件下成長起來，會積累多少人力資本。例如，法國決定將接受義務(wù)教育的年齡提早至三歲，等到第一個幼兒登記入學，法國的排名就會上升，大大早于該決定顯現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟效益的時候。
The bank’s index offers a further prod to reform. It uses research on the economic returns to health and education to weight the components of its index according to their contribution to productivity. If a country doubles its human-capital score it should, in the long run, double its GDP per person, compared with a scenario where its score stayed the same. That prospect should make a government’s eyes widen.
世行的指數(shù)還會進一步促使各國實施改革。該指數(shù)利用健康和教育的經(jīng)濟效益方面的研究，根據(jù)各項指標對生產(chǎn)率的貢獻來給它們加權(quán)。如果一個國家的人力資本分數(shù)翻了一倍，從長遠來看，與這一分數(shù)毫無變化的情形相比，該國的人均GDP會多一倍。這樣的前景應(yīng)該會讓各國政府大感震撼。
Unfortunately the index is still hobbled by gaps in the data and in economists’ understanding. The link between stunting and productivity, for example, remains murky. Only 65% of the world’s births are registered, as are only 38% of deaths. Many countries test their schoolchildren infrequently, if at all. If pupils are not tested until the age of 15, then any reform that helps primary-schoolers learn will not improve the country’s ranking until they grow old enough to ace the tests.
遺憾的是，世行的指數(shù)仍受限于數(shù)據(jù)不足以及經(jīng)濟學家理解上的欠缺。例如，發(fā)育遲緩和生產(chǎn)率之間存在怎樣的關(guān)聯(lián)仍舊很難說清。全世界只有65%的出生人口辦理了登記，登記在冊的死亡則只有38%。許多國家即使會對學生展開測驗，也并不經(jīng)常舉行。如果一國的學生直到15歲才接受測試，那么任何幫助小學生學習的改革也不會提升該國的排名，直到這些孩子長到足夠的年齡、在測試中取得了好成績。
The World Bank has itself flagged these data shortcomings. It hopes the very existence of its index will motivate governments to collect the data the index needs if it is to work properly. To adapt another metaphor favoured by Ms McCloskey, the World Bank has built a sleek sports car; now it must shame governments into building roads that are worthy of it.
世行本身已提示數(shù)據(jù)存在缺陷。它希望這個指數(shù)的存在會激勵各國政府去收集讓指數(shù)正確發(fā)揮作用所需的數(shù)據(jù)?；孟蔓溈寺逅够矚g的另一個比方，可以說世行造出了一輛拉風的跑車，現(xiàn)在它得激起各國政府的羞愧感，好讓它們?nèi)バ夼涞蒙线@輛車的路。■
