Burgernomics
Watch your BMI
Investors are gorging themselves on American assets
漢堡經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)
關(guān)注你的巨無霸指數(shù)(BMI)
投資者開始瘋狂囤積美國資產(chǎn)
ECONOMISTS think prices, like spilt ketchup, are sticky. They move only slowly as firms digest economic conditions. Financial markets are an exception. Computerised trading by thousands of participants means prices, especially of currencies, can move in a McFlurry.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，價(jià)格就像撕開的蕃茄醬一樣，總是粘糊糊的，它們只有在公司消化吸收了經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境因素以后才會緩慢變化。而金融市場則是一個例外，數(shù)以萬計(jì)的量化交易有，意味著價(jià)格，特別是貨幣的價(jià)格，可能會像麥旋風(fēng)冰淇淋中一樣急速波動。
Since The Economist last updated the Big Mac index (BMI), our lighthearted guide to currency valuation, burger prices have remained constant in 19 of 44 countries. But every currency has shifted in value (see chart 1).
自從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人上一次更新巨無霸指數(shù)，也就是，我們對貨幣價(jià)值的簡化指標(biāo)，漢堡的價(jià)格在44個國家中的19個國家保持穩(wěn)定。然而，每種貨幣的價(jià)值已經(jīng)發(fā)生了變動。
Our index uses a nugget of economic wisdom called purchasing-power parity: currencies should adjust until goods cost the same everywhere. If, once converted into dollars, Big Mac prices vary, one or other currency looks dear. Big movements in exchange rates, without similarly supersized shifts in burger prices, can send a currency up or down the index.
我們的指數(shù)使用了一種珍貴的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)智慧，被稱為購買力平價(jià)的概念：調(diào)整貨幣的價(jià)值直到物品的成本在各個地區(qū)能保持一致性。比如，如果轉(zhuǎn)換成以美元計(jì)價(jià)，巨無霸的價(jià)格發(fā)生了變化，那么其中的一種貨幣會更吸引人。貨幣匯率的巨大變化，如果沒有帶來漢堡價(jià)格同樣巨大的變化，那么可能會造成貨幣指數(shù)上升或者下降。
That explains why the Argentine peso has been the biggest mover since January. Then, it looked 25% undervalued compared with the dollar; today, that has swelled to 51%. The peso tumbled on fears of a debt crisis and inflation.
這解釋了為什么阿根廷比索從一月份以來，成為變動最大的貨幣。也就是說，比索相對于美元貶值了25％；而今天，這一貶值幅度已經(jīng)擴(kuò)大到了51％。比索的幣值下滑，源于對債務(wù)危機(jī)和通貨膨脹的擔(dān)憂。
For similar reasons, two other emerging-market currencies, the Turkish lira and Brazilian real, are also big movers. Only the valuation of Norway’s krone has moved much on account of purchasing power. A 14% fall in the dollar price of a Norwegian Big Mac has taken the krone from looking 18% overvalued in January to 5% undervalued now.
基于同樣的原因，另外兩種新興市場的貨幣，土耳其里拉和巴西雷亞爾，也是變化較大的貨幣。只有挪威克朗的價(jià)值是緣于購買力變化。以美元計(jì)價(jià)的挪威巨無霸價(jià)格下降了14％，使得挪威克郎從一月份升值18％轉(zhuǎn)為現(xiàn)如今貶值5％。
This shift should be taken with a pinch of salt, however; burgers may be getting cheaper, but overall Norwegian inflation is a bland 2.6%.
然而這種變化應(yīng)該是緣于一小撮鹽；漢堡的價(jià)格可能變得便宜了，但總體上，挪威的通貨膨脹率只是平淡無奇的2.6%。
Sometimes, currency traders foresee long-term changes that have yet to move domestic prices. That may be true in Britain, where the pound has been particularly cheap since the Brexit vote in 2016 (see chart 2).
有時候，貨幣交易員會預(yù)測可能會影響本地價(jià)格的長期變化趨勢。在英國，的確如此，自從英國2016年脫歐后，英鎊變得特別便宜。
It now looks 23% undervalued. At other times, currencies deviate from fundamentals because of temporary disparities in risks and short-term interest rates. America’s economy is sizzling and the Federal Reserve is raising rates, but growth has flattened off elsewhere.
現(xiàn)在看起來，英鎊已經(jīng)貶值了23％。在其它的時候，由于暫時與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和短期利率的不一致，導(dǎo)致貨幣偏離其基礎(chǔ)價(jià)值。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正欣欣向榮，美聯(lián)儲正走在加息的路上，但是其它地區(qū)的增長則表現(xiàn)平平。
That has made the dollar as strong as a bull. Almost every currency in the index has weakened relative to the greenback since January. Only two, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, now look overvalued against it.
這一切使得美元?dú)鈮讶缗?。從一月份以來，指?shù)中差不多每種貨幣，相對于綠色的美元都顯得疲弱。目前看來，只有兩種貨幣，包括瑞士法朗和瑞典克朗，相對美元升值。
One beef with the BMI is that burgers cannot easily be traded across borders. Neither can some inputs to production, such as land and labour. To take account of this, we also produce another version of the index.
巨無霸指數(shù)中最重要的一點(diǎn)是，漢堡包不容易進(jìn)行跨境交易，還有一些生產(chǎn)中的要素投入比如土地和勞動力，同樣如此。考慮到這些因素，我們也在思考構(gòu)建另一種形式的指數(shù)。
