From exploitation to irrelevance?
從剝削到無關(guān)緊要
Potential solutions fall into three main categories: what to do in order to prevent jobs from being lost; what to do in order to create enough new jobs; and what to do if, despite our best efforts, job losses significantly outstrip job creation.
潛在的解決方案可以分為三大類：如何防止失業(yè)；如何創(chuàng)造足夠多的新工作；如果盡管我們盡了最大努力，但失業(yè)人數(shù)仍然遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過新工作就業(yè)人數(shù)，該怎么辦？
從剝削到無足輕重
可能的解決方案分為三大類：如何避免工作消失；如何創(chuàng)造足夠的新工作；就算盡了最大的努力，但消失的工作還是遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)多于新創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，該怎么辦？【林俊宏】
Preventing job losses altogether is an unattractive and probably untenable strategy, because it means giving up the immense positive potential of AI and robotics. Nevertheless, governments might decide to deliberately slowdown the pace of automation, in order to lessen the resulting shocks and allow time for readjustments. Technology is never deterministic, and the fact that something can be done does not mean it must be done. Government regulation can successfully block new technologies even if they are commercially viable and economically lucrative. For example, for many decades we have had the technology to create a marketplace for human organs, complete with human 'body farms' in underdeveloped countries and an almost insatiable demand from desperate affluent buyers. Such body farms could well be worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Yet regulations have prevented free trade in human body parts, and though there is a black market in organs, it is far smaller and more circumscribed than what one could have expected.
完全避免失業(yè)是一個(gè)沒有吸引力、甚至可能站不住腳的策略，因?yàn)檫@意味著放棄人工智能和機(jī)器人的巨大潛力。不過，各國政府可能會(huì)有意放慢自動(dòng)化的步伐，以減輕自動(dòng)化帶來的沖擊，并留出時(shí)間進(jìn)行調(diào)整。技術(shù)從來都不是決定性因素，可以做的事情未必一定要做。即使新技術(shù)可以商業(yè)化并且有利可圖，政府監(jiān)管也能成功地阻止新技術(shù)的應(yīng)用。例如，幾十年來，我們的技術(shù)足以開辟人體器官交易市場，并且有欠發(fā)達(dá)國家的“人體農(nóng)場”以及絕望的富裕買家近乎貪得無厭的需求作為配套。這樣的人體市場很可能價(jià)值數(shù)千億美元。然而，相關(guān)規(guī)定阻礙了人體器官的自由貿(mào)易，盡管仍然存在器官交易黑市，但其規(guī)模和范圍遠(yuǎn)小于人們的預(yù)期。
避免工作消失，是最沒有吸引力也最無法達(dá)成的策略，因?yàn)檫@代表著要人類放棄人工智能和機(jī)器人的巨大潛力。然而，政府可能會(huì)有意放慢自動(dòng)化的腳步，以減少造成的沖擊，爭取時(shí)間進(jìn)行調(diào)整。技術(shù)從來不是只有一條路：事情“可以做”并不意味著“必須做”。運(yùn)用政府法規(guī)的牽制，就算某項(xiàng)新技術(shù)已經(jīng)在商業(yè)上可行、在經(jīng)濟(jì)上有利可圖，也能把它擋下來。比如，這幾十年來．人類的技術(shù)發(fā)展早就足以創(chuàng)造出一個(gè)人體器官市場，在欠發(fā)達(dá)國家開設(shè)“人體農(nóng)場”，應(yīng)對富裕買家?guī)缀跤罒o止境的需求。像這樣的“人體農(nóng)場”，市場價(jià)值可能高達(dá)數(shù)千億美元。然而，靠著各項(xiàng)法規(guī)禁止人體器官自由交易，雖然還是有黑市，但畢竟規(guī)模遠(yuǎn)小于原本可能的情況?！玖挚『辍?/p>
Slowing down the pace of change may give us time to create enough new jobs to replace most of the losses. Yet as noted earlier, economic entrepreneurship will have to be accompanied by a revolution in education and psychology. Assuming that the new jobs won't be just government sinecures, they will probably demand high levels of expertise, and as AI continues to improve,human employees will need to repeatedly learn new skills and change their profession. Governments will have to step in, both by subsidising a lifelong education sector, and by providing a safety net for the inevitable periods of transition. If a forty-year-old ex-drone pilot takes three years to reinvent herself as a designer of virtual worlds, she may well need a lot of government help to sustain herself and her family during that time. (This kind of scheme is currently being pioneered in Scandinavia, where governments follow the motto'protect workers, not jobs'.)
放慢變革的步伐可能會(huì)給我們時(shí)間創(chuàng)造足夠的新工作來彌補(bǔ)大部分消失的崗位。然而，如前所述，經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)業(yè)將不得不伴隨教育和心理學(xué)的革命。假設(shè)新工作不僅僅是政府部門的閑職，那么可能需要高水平的專業(yè)知識(shí)。隨著人工智能的不斷發(fā)展，人類雇員將需要反復(fù)學(xué)習(xí)新技能、轉(zhuǎn)換職業(yè)。政府必須介入，既要補(bǔ)貼終身教育部門，也要為不可避免的過渡時(shí)期提供安全網(wǎng)。如果一名40歲的前無人機(jī)飛行員花了三年時(shí)間轉(zhuǎn)型成為一名虛擬世界的設(shè)計(jì)師，那么在這段時(shí)間里，她很可能需要政府的大量幫助來養(yǎng)活自己和家人。(該類計(jì)劃目前正在北歐國家率先實(shí)施，這些國家的政府遵循“保護(hù)工人，而不是保護(hù)工作”的座右銘。)
放慢改變的速度，或許能讓我們有時(shí)間創(chuàng)造足夠多的新工作機(jī)會(huì)來彌補(bǔ)大部分損失。但就像前面說的，經(jīng)濟(jì)上的開創(chuàng)精神必須搭配教育和心理方面的變革。假設(shè)新的工作崗位不僅僅是政府部門的職位，那么也就可能需要高水平的專業(yè)知識(shí)：而且，隨著人工智能不斷改良，人類勞動(dòng)者也需要不斷學(xué)習(xí)新技能，改變自己的專業(yè)領(lǐng)域。政府必然需要介入，一方面提供終身教育補(bǔ)貼，另一方面提供安全網(wǎng)，協(xié)助國民面對無法避免的過渡期。假設(shè)一位40歲的前無人機(jī)駕駛員需要三年時(shí)間才能成功轉(zhuǎn)型為虛擬世界的設(shè)計(jì)師，在這段時(shí)間內(nèi)，他和他的家人很可能需要很多的政府協(xié)助才能維持生活。目前北歐各國正在試行此類方案，信念在于“保護(hù)勞工，而不是保護(hù)工作”?！玖挚『辍?/p>
