英文早讀第47篇，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。
The Question of Conservatism
關(guān)于保守主義的問題
Because I believe it may be even more meaningful after the events of 1962 I would like to repeat this section from last year's letter:
因為我認為經(jīng)過1962年的事情后他變得更有意義，我想再重復一邊去年信中的這一部分：
"The above description of our various areas of operation may provide some clues as to how conservatively our portfolio is invested. Many people some years back thought they were behaving in the most conservative manner by purchasing medium or long-term municipal or government bonds. This policy has produced substantial market depreciation in many cases, and most certainly has failed to maintain or increase real buying power.
”以上關(guān)于我們不同領(lǐng)域操作的描述或許可以提供一些我們的投資組合如何保守的線索。很多人多年前認為他們最保守通過購買中期或長期的地方或政府債券。這個策略引起大幅的市場貶值在很多情況下，大部分顯然失敗于保持或增加實際購買力。
"Conscious, perhaps overly conscious, of inflation, many people now feel that they are behaving in a conservative manner by buying blue chip securities almost regardless of price-earnings ratios, dividend yields, etc. Without the benefit of hindsight as in the bond example, I feel this course of action is fraught with danger. There is nothing at all conservative, in my opinion, about speculating as to just how high a multiplier a greedy and capricious public will put on earnings.
擔心，或許過于擔心通貨膨脹，很多人現(xiàn)在覺得他們表現(xiàn)的保守通過購買藍籌股卻幾乎不管價格盈利比，分紅率等等。既沒有從舉的債券例子中獲益，我認為這系列行為充滿危險。這一點都沒有保守主義，在我看來，關(guān)于僅僅通過投機于貪婪的高的倍數(shù)和變幻莫測的公眾將帶來的盈利
You will not be right simply because a large number of people momentarily agree with you. You will not be right simply because important people agree with you. In many quarters the simultaneous occurrence of the two above factors is enough to make a course of action meet the test of conservatism.
你不會是對的僅僅因為大部分人現(xiàn)在贊同你；你也不會是對的僅僅因為重要人物贊同你。在很多情況，這兩個因素同時發(fā)生就足以滿足保守主義測試的程序。
"You will be right, over the course of many transactions, if your hypotheses are correct, your facts are correct, and your reasoning is correct. True conservatism is only possible through knowledge and reason.
“你會是對的，通過系列的交易，如果你的假設(shè)是對的，你的因素是對的，你的推理是對的。真正的保守主義只有通過認知和推理才有可能。
I might add that in no way does the fact that our portfolio is not conventional prove that we are more conservative or less conservative than standard methods of investing. This can only be determined by examining the methods or examining the results.
我想加上因為我們的投資組合是不尋常這一事實就證明我們相比于標準投資方法更加保守或不保守是毫無依據(jù)的。唯一能決定的是通過測試我們的方法或結(jié)果。
I feel the most objective test as to just how conservative our manner of investing is arises through evaluation of performance in down markets. Preferably these should involve a substantial decline in the Dow. Our performance in the rather mild declines of 1957 and 1960 would confirm my hypothesis that we invest in an extremely conservative manner. I would welcome any partner's suggesting objective tests as to conservatism to see how we stack up. We have never suffered a realized loss of more than 1/2 of 1% of total net assets and our ratio of total dollars of realized gains to total realized losses is something like 100 to 1. Of course, this refects the fact that on balance we have been operating in an up market. However there have been many opportunities for loss transactions even in markets such as these (you may have found out about a few of these yourselves) so I think the above facts have some significance.
我覺得最公平的方法去判斷我們的投資方式有多保守來自于在下跌市場時我們表現(xiàn)的評估。最好他應(yīng)包括一段道瓊斯指數(shù)的大幅下跌。在1957和1960年相對溫和的下跌中，我們的表現(xiàn)證實了我的猜想，我們以極其保守的方式投資。我會歡迎任何合伙人的建議關(guān)于看看我們多么保守的公平測試。我們從來沒有經(jīng)歷過0.5%的總凈資產(chǎn)實際損失，并且我們的總盈利美金和總虧損美金比例差不多時100比1。當然，這也反映一個事實總的來說我們一直在一個上漲的市場運作。然而仍然有很多虧損交易的機會即使在這樣的市場（你們自己或許就發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些）因此我認為上面這些事實有一定意義。
In 1962, we did realize a loss on one commitment or 1.0% and our ratio of realized gains to losses was only slightly over 3 to 1. However, compared to more conventional (often termed conservative which is not synonymous) methods of common stock investing, it would appear that our method involved considerably less risk. Our advantage over the Dow was all achieved when the market was going down; we lost a bit of this edge on the way up.
在1962年，我們確實在一個交易上實現(xiàn)了1.0%的虧損，并且我們的盈利總額和虧損總額比僅僅小幅超過3比1。然而，相比于那些更加傳統(tǒng)（經(jīng)常冠以保守，但并不是同義詞）的方法投資股票，似乎我們的方法相當?shù)惋L險。我們領(lǐng)先道瓊斯指數(shù)的優(yōu)勢在市場下跌時都實現(xiàn)了，在市場上漲時我們只落后一點點。
87.synonymous：同義的；等同于……的
88.considerably：非常；相當多的
