英文早讀第127篇，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。

In my opinion what is resulting is speculation on an increasing scale. This is hardly a new phenomenon; however, a dimension has been added by the growing ranks of professional (in many cases formerly quite docile) investors who feel they must "get aboard". The game is dignified, of course, by appropriate ceremonies, personages and lexicon. To date it has been highly profitable. It may also be that this is going to be the standard nature of the market in the future. Nevertheless, it is an activiy at which I am sure I would not do particularly well. As I said on page five of my last annual letter,
在我看來這導(dǎo)致投機(jī)行為規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)。這幾乎不是一個(gè)新的現(xiàn)象；然而，范圍被增長(zhǎng)的專業(yè)投資者階層（在很多情況之前相當(dāng)溫順的）增加，他們相信他們必須“身在其中”。這個(gè)游戲顯得很莊重，當(dāng)然，通過適當(dāng)?shù)膬x式，知名人士和專業(yè)詞匯。到今天他變的相當(dāng)能賺。或許也有可能將在未來成為市場(chǎng)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)屬性。然而，這是一個(gè)我確信我不能做的很好的行動(dòng)。正如我在去年年度信中第五頁(yè)所說的，

"Furthermore, we will not follow the frequently prevalent approach of investing in securities where an attempt to anticipate market action overrides business valuations. Such so-called 'fashion' investing has frequently produced very substantial and quick profits in recent years (and currently as I write this in January). It represents an investment technique whose soundness I can neither affirm nor deny. It does not completely satisfy my intellect (or perhaps my prejudices), and most definitely does not fit my temperament. I will not invest my own money based upon such an approach - hence, I will most certainly not do so with your money."
“更進(jìn)一步，我們不會(huì)跟隨這個(gè)頻繁的流行投資股票方式，他仕途參與市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)凌駕于業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值。這類所謂的“時(shí)尚”投資經(jīng)常產(chǎn)生非常大和快速的盈利在這些年（包括現(xiàn)在我這到這里的一月份）。他代表一種投資技術(shù)他的合理性我既不能同意也不能否認(rèn)。他完全不滿足我的認(rèn)知（或者可能說是偏見），同時(shí)很確定不符合我的性情。我不會(huì)將我自己的錢以這類方式投資——因此，我相當(dāng)確定也不會(huì)用你們的錢這樣做?！?/p>

Any form of hyper-activity with large amounts of money in securities markets can create problems for all participants. I make no attempt to guess the action of the stock market and haven't the foggiest notion as to whether the Dow will be at 600, 900 or 1200 a year from now. Even if there are serious consequences resulting from present and future speculative activity, experience suggests estimates of timing are meaningless. However, I do believe certain conditions that now exist are likely to make activity in markets more difficult for us for the intermediate future.
大筆資金在股票市場(chǎng)任何形式的過渡活躍都可以對(duì)所有參與者造成問題。我不會(huì)試圖猜測(cè)股市行動(dòng)，也沒有模糊的意念關(guān)于一年后道瓊斯指數(shù)是否將會(huì)到600，900或者1200點(diǎn)。盡管現(xiàn)在和將來的投機(jī)行動(dòng)會(huì)導(dǎo)致一些嚴(yán)重的問題，經(jīng)驗(yàn)建議對(duì)時(shí)機(jī)的預(yù)估是沒有意義的。然而，我的確相信現(xiàn)在存在的這些情況可能會(huì)讓我們?cè)诓贿h(yuǎn)的將來在市場(chǎng)采取行動(dòng)更加困難。

The above may simply be "old-fogeyism" (after all, I am 37). When the game is no longer being played your way, it is only human to say the new approach is all wrong, bound to lead to trouble, etc. I have been scornful of such behavior by others in the past. I have also seen the penalties incurred by those who evaluate conditions as they were - not as they are. Essentially I am out of step with present conditions. On one point, however, I am clear. I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand (although I find it difficult to apply) even though it may mean foregoing large and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don't fully understand, have not practiced successfully and which, possibly, could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital.
上面這些或許僅僅是“老頑固注意”（畢竟，我已經(jīng)37歲了）。當(dāng)游戲不再是按你的方式玩，人們僅僅說新的方式是錯(cuò)的，必然導(dǎo)致困難等等。在過去，我對(duì)他人這類行為感到鄙夷。我也目睹過那些按照過去的而非現(xiàn)在的情況去評(píng)估狀況的人所收到的懲罰。本質(zhì)上，我和現(xiàn)在的狀況有些脫節(jié)。有一點(diǎn)，然而，我是清醒的。我不會(huì)拋棄現(xiàn)在的方法，他的邏輯我是理解的（盡管我發(fā)現(xiàn)他很難去應(yīng)用）即使他可能意味著放棄大的且明顯容易得利潤(rùn)去擁抱一個(gè)我不是很理解，還沒有成功實(shí)踐過，并且有可能導(dǎo)致大幅資金永久損失的方法。

The third point of difficulty involves our much greater base of capital. For years my investment ideas were anywhere from 110% to 1000% of our capital. It was difficult for me to concieve that a different condition could ever exist. I promised to tell partners when it did and in my January, 1967 letter had to make good on that promise. Largely because of the two conditions previously mentioned, our greater capital is now something of a drag on performance. I believe it is the least significant factor of the four mentioned, and that if we were operating with one-tenth of our present capital our performance would be little better. However, increased funds are presently a moderately negative factor.
困難的第三點(diǎn)包括我們大幅增加的資金基礎(chǔ)。這些年我的投資標(biāo)的都是我們資金的110%到1000%規(guī)模。對(duì)我來說很難想象一個(gè)不同的情況會(huì)存在。我承諾當(dāng)他發(fā)生時(shí)會(huì)告訴合伙人，在1967年1月信中兌現(xiàn)了那個(gè)承諾。很大程度因?yàn)橹疤岬降?個(gè)情況，我們更大的資金現(xiàn)在某種程度是我們表現(xiàn)的拖累。我相信他是四個(gè)提到的因素中最不重要的，如果我們運(yùn)作我們現(xiàn)在資金的十分之一，我們的表現(xiàn)將只會(huì)好一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。然而，增加的資金現(xiàn)在算得上是負(fù)面因素。

35.speculation：投機(jī)；猜測(cè)；推測(cè)；推斷
36.dimension：尺寸；方面；范圍；程度；規(guī)模
37.docile：溫順的；馴服的；易控制的
38.dignified：端莊的；莊嚴(yán)的；莊重的
39.foggiest：有霧的；霧茫茫的
40.consequence：后果；結(jié)果；重要性
41.intermediate：中間的；中等的；中級(jí)的
42.fogeyism：頑固主義
43.bound to：必然；一定會(huì)；綁定到
44.scornful：輕蔑的；鄙夷的
45.foregoing：上述的；前述的；以上所述；先行；在……前面；放棄
46.embrace：擁抱；包括；欣然接受；樂意采納
47.conceive：想出；想象；構(gòu)想；懷孕；設(shè)想
48.make good：修復(fù)；恢復(fù)；賠償；償付；出名；發(fā)跡；實(shí)現(xiàn)
49.essentially：本質(zhì)上；根本上