這篇文的標(biāo)題是 - Climate change and inequality - The rich pollute, the poor suffer
氣候變化與不平等 - 富人排放，窮人受苦
ON JULY 12, the Larsen C ice shelf in Antarctica disgorged a chunk of ice the size of Delaware, a small state on America’s east coast. America’s government seems unfazed by the possibility that such shifts might one day threaten Delaware itself. Its climate defiance grows not only from the power of its fossil-fuel industry and the scepticism of the Republican party, but also from a sense of insulation from the costs of global warming. This confidence is misplaced. New research indicates not only that climate change will impose heavy costs on the American economy, but also that it will exacerbate inequality.
7月12日，南極洲的拉森C冰架吐出了一塊相當(dāng)于美國(guó)東海岸特拉華州那么大的冰塊。而美國(guó)政府看起來(lái)跟沒(méi)事兒人一樣，絲毫不擔(dān)心這事兒哪天真的會(huì)威脅到特拉華州。美國(guó)對(duì)于氣候的這種無(wú)視正在加劇，這不光能從他們的化石燃料工業(yè)的興旺以及共和黨持有的懷疑態(tài)度看得出，我們更是感覺(jué)到美國(guó)對(duì)于全球變暖所造成損失是一種不問(wèn)不顧的狀態(tài)。這種自信安錯(cuò)了地兒。最新研究指出，氣候變化不光只是會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成嚴(yán)重打擊，他還會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇貧富分化
Calculating the economic effects of climate change is no simple matter. It means working out how a given increase in global temperature affects local weather conditions; how local weather affects things like mortality and crop yields; how those changes add to or subtract from regional GDP; and how thousands of local-level changes in GDP add up nationally or globally. No sweat.
計(jì)算氣候變化對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響可不是件簡(jiǎn)單的事情。他意味著要搞清楚當(dāng)全球氣溫的上升一個(gè)特定的溫度時(shí)，一個(gè)地區(qū)的溫度會(huì)怎么變。而一個(gè)地區(qū)的溫度變化又是怎樣影響當(dāng)?shù)厮劳雎屎图Z食產(chǎn)量，這些影響如何增加或減少這個(gè)地區(qū)的GDP，最終各個(gè)地區(qū)的GDP變化匯總之后對(duì)整個(gè)國(guó)家乃至全球產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。看到這是不是有廬山瀑布汗的感覺(jué)
The sheer number of moving parts means that the “damage function” used in many papers, which links changes in global temperature to economic costs, is not well characterized. The authors of a new study published in Science aim to firm things up. Solomon Hsiang of the University of California, Berkeley, Robert Kopp of Rutgers University and their co-authors run their climate models repeatedly, for three different temperature scenarios, to see how 15 different economic variables behave in 29,000 possible future states of the world, for each of 3,143 American counties.
指數(shù)的各種大的起伏意味著很多報(bào)告所引用的，反映全球氣候溫變化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的“損傷函數(shù)”并沒(méi)有符合實(shí)際情況。一份最近科學(xué)報(bào)告的作者正試著把它確定下來(lái)，加州伯克利大學(xué)的Solomon Hsiang，羅格斯大學(xué)的Robert Kopp以及他們合作伙伴重復(fù)的實(shí)驗(yàn)他們的氣候模型。用了三個(gè)不同溫度的場(chǎng)景來(lái)監(jiān)測(cè)15個(gè)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量在美國(guó)3143個(gè)地區(qū)的所產(chǎn)生的29000種可能性。
Using that information, they assemble probability distributions showing the costs America is likely to sustain by the end of the century. Their findings are stark. Even a modest rise in temperature impairs American economic performance. An increase in global temperature of 1.5°C is very likely to reduce annual output by the end of the century by between zero and 1.7%; a rise of 4°C would probably generate losses between 1.5% and 5.6% of GDP. These figures mask considerable variation across America. In some counties the models forecast a rise in local GDP of 10%; others face a staggering expected decline in annual output of 20%.
通過(guò)這些信息，他們組合了各種可能性，認(rèn)為美國(guó)的成本應(yīng)該可以維持到本世紀(jì)末。這個(gè)發(fā)現(xiàn)有點(diǎn)嚇人。哪怕是少量的氣溫升高都會(huì)影響到美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的表現(xiàn)。全球氣溫每升高1.5度，都極有可能導(dǎo)致在本世紀(jì)末以前，年產(chǎn)量下滑零到一點(diǎn)七個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。氣溫上升4度則大概會(huì)導(dǎo)致1.5%-5.6%的GDP損失。這些數(shù)據(jù)掩蓋了美國(guó)各個(gè)地區(qū)的多樣性。在某些地區(qū)，模型推測(cè)本地的的GDP增加10%,而其他的地區(qū)則驚人的減產(chǎn)20%
It is not surprising that the nationwide costs of climate change should conceal losses in some places and gains in others; that is how averages work. But the distribution of losses matters. The study shows that the pain of climate change will fall more heavily on America’s poorest bits than on its richest areas. Falling crop yields and labour productivity, and rising mortality and crime, are expected to be especially pronounced in America’s hot southern counties, where incomes are below the national average. In richer New England and the Pacific north-west, in contrast, winters will be milder and less deadly, and agricultural yields may rise. The aggregate economic cost of climate change is reduced because the burden disproportionately falls on those with low incomes, hardly the ideal way to slash the cost of warming.
國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的整體成本體現(xiàn)不出某些地區(qū)的損失和另外地區(qū)的獲益，這當(dāng)然沒(méi)什么驚訝的，平均數(shù)就是這么來(lái)的。但是如何分?jǐn)傔@些損失是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。研究顯示，氣候變化造成的損失，更多是落在了美國(guó)最窮而不是最富的地區(qū)。下降的糧食產(chǎn)量和勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率以及更高的死亡率和犯罪率，多發(fā)于美國(guó)南部那些炎熱的省份，而這些地方的收入則在于國(guó)家平均線以下。在更加富庶的新英格蘭和太平洋西北部地區(qū)，情況恰恰相反。冬天沒(méi)那么寒冷和致命，糧食產(chǎn)量反而會(huì)增加。應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的整體經(jīng)濟(jì)成本是下降的，因?yàn)樨?fù)擔(dān)被不成比例的攤到低收入群體的頭上，而這根本就不是削減全球變暖成本的合理方案。
Climate change is costly in part because its effects are uncertain, impairing investments and other actions which might mitigate its harms. Thus people would be willing to pay some money to know with greater certainty what higher temperatures will mean in future. Uncertainty around economic projections is highest in the poorest counties. For some of these places the worst outcomes could mean GDP losses of 40% or more. The authors reckon that after adjusting for the uncertainty of climate change, and for its unequal effects, the economic damage caused by a global temperature rise of 3°C could be 1.5-3 times bigger than the unadjusted aggregate figures suggest.
氣候變化的代價(jià)很高，部分原因就是效應(yīng)的不確定性。減少投資和相關(guān)的行為也許能夠減緩這種傷害。因此人們更愿意為了解升高的氣溫對(duì)將來(lái)的影響這種確定性更大的事兒買單。這種對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的投射效應(yīng)對(duì)于貧困地區(qū)來(lái)說(shuō)最具不確定性。對(duì)于某些地方，GDP的損失可能會(huì)達(dá)到40%甚至更多。作者估計(jì)，在調(diào)整了氣候變化的不確定性以及它所造成的不規(guī)則影響后，全球氣溫上升三度對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)造成危害可以達(dá)到?jīng)]有調(diào)整之前的1.5到3倍
Though focused on America, the analysis also describes the world’s climate problem. The costs of global climate change will again be unevenly (and uncertainly) distributed, but harm will often be smaller for richer, temperate countries. As a result the estimated economic loss from warming is almost certainly understated, because the nastiest effects are concentrated in places where incomes are lowest: and, correspondingly, where tumbling incomes have the smallest effect on global GDP.
雖說(shuō)分析主要聚焦在美國(guó)，但世界性的氣候變化也是有所描述。全球氣候變化的代價(jià)同樣也是不均勻分布的。那些富裕的溫帶國(guó)家分擔(dān)的份額更小。這種結(jié)果導(dǎo)致了因?yàn)樽兣鶎?dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失大概率是被低估的，因?yàn)槟切┳顕?yán)重的影響幾乎都集中在貧窮地區(qū)，而且相應(yīng)的，這些地區(qū)收入的驟減對(duì)于全球GDP的影響是最微乎其微的。
Yet just because a county in Mississippi faces a harsher future as a result of climate change than a county in Washington does not mean Mississippians must fare worse than Washingtonians. The authors hold the distribution of America’s population constant in conducting their analysis, but point out that harm could be reduced by large-scale migration. Is that a realistic possibility?
當(dāng)然，因?yàn)闅夂蜃兓瘜?duì)一個(gè)密西西比州地區(qū)的影響比華盛頓州大，并不意味著密西西比州一定就比華盛頓州差。作者的研究是基于美國(guó)人口分布保持現(xiàn)狀的前提，但同時(shí)指出，這種損失可以通過(guò)大規(guī)模的人口遷徙來(lái)減輕？你信么？
People do move as it grows hotter—but not in a uniform way. Research by Cristina Cattaneo and Giovanni Peri, for instance, shows that migration is an important element of the response to warming in middle-income countries, but that in poorer places the cost of moving locks people in place, amplifying the regressive impact of climate change. What is more, climate change might well require broad migrations from the middle latitudes to countries farther north or south, yet rich-country borders are far less porous (with respect to migrants from poorer countries, at least) than those in the developing world. Even within the large domestic territory of a country like America, mobility cannot be taken for granted; it has been falling in recent decades, even as economic fortunes have diverged and an opioid epidemic has ravaged some parts of the country while sparing others.
人們?cè)跉夂蜃儫岬臅r(shí)候的確是會(huì)遷徙，但步調(diào)不一定一致。Cristina Cattaneo 和 Giovanni Peri的研究就舉了一個(gè)例子，指出在中等收入國(guó)家，遷移的確是應(yīng)對(duì)變暖的好手段，但是窮一些的地方，高昂的搬遷費(fèi)用把很多人留在了當(dāng)?shù)兀瑥?qiáng)化了氣候變化的負(fù)面影響。更要命的是，氣候變化可能會(huì)促使中間維度的國(guó)家往南邊或者北邊遷徙，而富裕國(guó)家的邊境相對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家可沒(méi)那么好進(jìn)（至少對(duì)于貧窮國(guó)家的移民來(lái)說(shuō)）。即便是美國(guó)這么大的地盤(pán)兒，也不是說(shuō)想搬就能搬。最近幾十年這種情況一直在減少，哪怕財(cái)富已經(jīng)開(kāi)始分化。體制上的根本缺陷讓一些地方飽受摧殘而另一些地方則獲益良多
Ice in their veins
The rich are disproportionate contributors to the carbon emissions that power climate change. It is cruel and perverse, therefore, that the costs of warming should be disproportionately borne by the poor. And it is both insult and injury that the wealthy are more mobile in the face of climate-induced hardship, and more effective at limiting the mobility of others. The strains this injustice places on the social fabric might well lead to woes more damaging than rising temperatures themselves.
冰塊的紋理
富人的碳排放量對(duì)于影響氣候變化那是占了大頭，這是個(gè)殘酷而又惡心的事實(shí)。因此，變暖的代價(jià)就大多砸到了窮人的頭上。富人應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化所帶來(lái)的困境時(shí)比窮人顯得游刃有余很多，而且他們對(duì)于如何限制其他人和他們一樣輕松的手段方面那是頗有心得。這真是一種羞辱和傷害。不公正所帶來(lái)的這種壓力對(duì)于社會(huì)所造成的傷害，也許要比氣溫上升本身，嚴(yán)重的多
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