英文早讀第147篇，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。
While two years may sound like a short time when included in a table of performance, it may feel like a long time when your net worth is down 50%. I think you run this sort of short-term risk with virtually any money manager operating in stocks and it is a factor to consider in deciding the portion of your capital to commit to equities. To date in 1969, Bill is down about 15%, which I believe to be fairly typical of most money managers. Bill, of course, has not been in control situations or workouts, which have usually tended to moderate the swings in BPL year-to-year performance. Even excluding thers factors, I believe his performance would have been somewhat more volatile (but not necessarily poorer by any means) than mine - his style is different, and while his typical portfolio (under most conditions) would tend to have a mild overlap with mine, there would always be very significant differences.
盡管兩年當(dāng)被包含在業(yè)績(jī)表格中聽(tīng)起來(lái)很短，但是當(dāng)你凈值下跌50%時(shí)你會(huì)感覺(jué)很長(zhǎng)。我認(rèn)為當(dāng)你和幾乎任何運(yùn)作股票的資金管理人時(shí)都會(huì)經(jīng)歷這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且這是一個(gè)因素決定要把多少比例資產(chǎn)交易到股票中。1969年截至現(xiàn)在，比爾下跌大約15%，我認(rèn)為大多數(shù)資金管理人的典型結(jié)果都是這樣。比爾，當(dāng)然，還沒(méi)進(jìn)入到控制類交易和套利類，這些通常能夠緩和巴菲特合伙基金年度業(yè)績(jī)的浮動(dòng)。即使排除這些因素，我認(rèn)為他的表現(xiàn)某種程度也是更加比我不穩(wěn)定的（這不是說(shuō)一定會(huì)比任何方法更糟）——他的風(fēng)格是不同的，盡管他的典型投資組合（在大多數(shù)情況下）傾向于我的有輕微重疊，也經(jīng)常會(huì)有很大的區(qū)別。
Bill has achieved his results working with an average of 5 to 10 million. I consider the three most likely negative factors in his future to be:(1) the probability of managing significantly larger sums - this is a problem you are going to have rather quickly with any successful money manager, and it will tend to moderate performance; I believe Bill's firm in now managing 20-30 million and, of course, they will continue to add accounts; (2) the possibility of Bill's becoming too involved in the detail of his operation rather than spending all of his time simply thinking about money management. The problems of being the principal factor in a NYSE firm as well as handling many individual accounts can mean that he, like most investment advisors, will be subject to pressures to spend much of his time in activities that do nothing to lead to superior investment performance. In this connection, I have asked Bill to make his services available to all BPL partners - large or small and he will, but I also told him he is completely a free agent if he finds particular clients diverting him from his main job; (3) the high probability that even excellent investment management during the next decade will only produce limited advantages over passive management. I will comment on this below.
比爾大約管理平均500到1000萬(wàn)美金實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)結(jié)果。我認(rèn)為他將來(lái)可能會(huì)有三個(gè)主要的負(fù)面因素是：（1）管理明顯更多資金的可能性——這個(gè)問(wèn)題你和任何成功的資金管理人時(shí)都會(huì)很快遇到，并且他將傾向于降緩業(yè)績(jī)；我認(rèn)為比爾的公司現(xiàn)在管理2000-3000萬(wàn)美金，當(dāng)然，他們將會(huì)繼續(xù)增加賬戶；（2）比爾變的過(guò)于陷入業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)作細(xì)節(jié)而非花費(fèi)他全部時(shí)間單單思考資金管理的可能性。這個(gè)問(wèn)題是紐交所備案公司同樣管理很多獨(dú)立賬戶，像大多數(shù)投資顧問(wèn)一樣，會(huì)遇到的首要問(wèn)題，而受制于花費(fèi)多數(shù)時(shí)間在不會(huì)導(dǎo)致卓越的投資業(yè)績(jī)的活動(dòng)上。在這點(diǎn)上，我已經(jīng)要求比爾讓他的服務(wù)對(duì)所有巴菲特合伙基金合伙人都是可獲得的——規(guī)模大的或者小的，并且他將，我也告訴他，當(dāng)他發(fā)現(xiàn)特定的客戶是他從核心工作中偏離時(shí)，他可以自行決定去留；（3）很大可能在接下來(lái)十年即使卓越的投資管理也僅僅產(chǎn)生相比被動(dòng)管理有限的領(lǐng)先。下面我會(huì)談?wù)勥@個(gè)。
The final point regarding the negatives listed above is that they are not the sort of drawbacks leading to horrible performance, but more likely the sort of things that lead to average performance. I think this is the main risk you run with Bill - and average performance is just not that terrible a risk.
考慮到上面列舉的負(fù)面點(diǎn)，最后一點(diǎn)不是這類會(huì)導(dǎo)致糟糕業(yè)績(jī)的拖累，而更像是那種導(dǎo)致平均業(yè)績(jī)的因素。我認(rèn)為這是和Bill一起運(yùn)作的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——一個(gè)平均水平的業(yè)績(jī)而不是一個(gè)糟糕的業(yè)績(jī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
11.equities：股票；普通股
12.volatile：不穩(wěn)定的；易變的
13.mild：溫和的；輕微的
14.overlap：重疊；交疊
15.divert：轉(zhuǎn)移；使轉(zhuǎn)向；使分心
16.passive：被動(dòng)的；消極的
17.drawback：缺點(diǎn)；不利條件
