第一章第一節(jié)已講完，現(xiàn)進(jìn)入第一章第二節(jié)。

詳細(xì)原文請(qǐng)點(diǎn)擊: 《On Regular Investing》(《定投改變命運(yùn)》)，中英韓三語版。

原文:

1.2 How Long Is "Long-term"?

The core of the regular investing strategy is long-term holding. It's well recognized that the longer you hold the more likely you are to make a profit, but there is a key question we have to answer if we are to have a deeper discussion:

How long is "long-term"?

If we don't have an accurate answer to this question, we can't even really use the concept of "long-term". For any concept to be useful it must be clearly defined, and since we must combine concepts together, if we have multiple unclear conepts then the accuracy of our judgement will be severely impacted, just as multiplying 80% by itself five times will leave us with less than 33%. In the course of reading this book, you will encounter several concepts that must be used together, and they must be clearly and accurately defined in order to be useful.

Unlike most people, I have a fairly clear, accurate and useful definition of long-term:

Long-term means longer than two full market cycles.

A clear and accurate definition of "long-term" thus depends on a clear and accurate definition of another concept: "market cycle". So what's a full market cycle?

……

How can you tell when a market cycle begins? Actually, we can only make this determination after the fact. Since short-term prices can rise and fall unpredictably, it's impossible to know when a high or low point for a given period has been reached. It's hard to know how long after the fact it will be before we can make the determination, but we can be sure that it will be long enough that it will not be useful for short-term trading decisions.

生詞:

1. recognized? ? adj. 公認(rèn)的，經(jīng)過驗(yàn)證的；
2. likely? ? adj. 可能的，預(yù)料的，有希望的；
3. profit? ? n. 收益，利潤；v. 獲利；
4. discussion? ? n. 討論，論述；
5. accurate? ? adj. 準(zhǔn)確的；
6. defined? ? v. 界定；解釋；adj. 清楚的
7. combine? ? v. 使結(jié)合
8. multiple? ? adj. 不清楚的，含糊不清的；
9. accuracy? ? n. 準(zhǔn)確性；
10. judgement? ? n. 判斷；
11. severely? ? adj. 嚴(yán)重的；
12. impacted? ? v.對(duì)……有影響；
13. less than? ? 比……少；少于……；
14. encounter? ? n. v. 遇見；
15. several? ? adj. 幾個(gè)的；n. 數(shù)個(gè)；
16. fairly clear? ? 相當(dāng)清楚；
17. cycles? ? n. 周期；
18. depends? ? v. 依賴；
19. tell? ? v. 辨別；
20. determination? ? n. 確定；
21. unpredictably? ? adj. 不可預(yù)測(cè)的；

參考翻譯與劃分:

第一句:

The core （主）of the regular investing strategy（定） is（謂） long-term holding（賓）.

翻譯:

定投策略的核心是長期持有。

第二句:

It's（主、系） well （狀）recognized（表） that the longer you hold the more likely you are to make a profit（定從）, but there（主2）is （謂2）a key question（賓） we have to answer（定從） if we are to have a deeper discussion（狀從）:

How long is "long-term"?

翻譯:

你持有的時(shí)間越長越能保障盈利，這是公認(rèn)的事實(shí)。然而，若是我們進(jìn)一步深究，那么有一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題我們必須回答:

長期是多長？

第三句:

If we don't have an accurate answer to this question（條件狀語從句）, we （主）can't even really use （謂）the concept（賓） of "long-term"（定）.

翻譯:

若是我們不能準(zhǔn)確地回復(fù)這個(gè)問題，我們甚至不能使用"長期"這個(gè)概念。

第四句:

For any concept to be useful it must be clearly defined, and since we must combine concepts together, if we have multiple unclear conepts then the accuracy of our judgement will be severely impacted, just as multiplying 80% by itself five times will leave us with less than 33%.

翻譯:

任何一個(gè)概念都想要有用，它必須被界定清楚。又，我們必須同時(shí)結(jié)合多個(gè)概念使用，若是我們有多個(gè)含糊不清的概念混雜在一起，將會(huì)嚴(yán)重地影響我們判斷的精度——就比如80%與自己相乘5次后（80%的5次方）少于33%一樣。

第五句:

In the course of reading this book（狀）, you（主） will encounter（謂）several concepts（賓） that must be used together（定從）, and they（主2） must be clearly and accurately defined（謂） in order to be useful（狀）.

翻譯:

在閱讀本書的過程中，你將會(huì)遇見幾個(gè)必須同時(shí)使用的概念，并且概念必須清晰準(zhǔn)確地被定義才有用。

第六句:

Unlike most people, I have a fairly clear, accurate and useful definition of long-term:

Long-term means longer than two full market cycles.

翻譯:

和大多數(shù)人不同，我非常清楚長期的準(zhǔn)確和有用的定義:

長期意味著至少兩個(gè)大周期。

第七句:

A clear and accurate definition （主）of "long-term"（定） thus（狀） depends（謂） on a clear and accurate definition （賓）of another concept（定）: "market cycle".

翻譯:

一個(gè)清晰、準(zhǔn)確的"長期"的定義如此依賴于另一個(gè)概念的清晰、準(zhǔn)確的定義: "市場(chǎng)周期"。

第八句:

So what's a full market cycle?

翻譯:

那么如何判斷一個(gè)大周期呢？

第九句:

How can you tell when a market cycle begins?

翻譯:

你如何分辨一個(gè)市場(chǎng)周期的開始呢？

第十句:

Actually（狀）, we（主） can only make（謂） this determination（賓） after the fact（狀）.

翻譯:

實(shí)際上，我們只能在事實(shí)之后才能確定。

第十一句:

Since short-term prices can rise and fall unpredictably（狀從）, it's （主系）impossible（表） to know （目的狀語）when a high or low point for a given period has been reached（狀從）.

翻譯:

短期價(jià)格能漲還是能跌根本無法預(yù)測(cè)——這是不可能知道一段時(shí)間內(nèi)的高點(diǎn)和低點(diǎn)的。

第十二句:

It's（主謂） hard to know（賓） how long after the fact it will be before we can make the determination（賓補(bǔ)）, but we（主2） can be （謂2）sure（狀） that it will be long enough that it will not be useful for short-term trading decisions（賓從）.

翻譯:

我們很難知道這個(gè)現(xiàn)象究竟會(huì)在多久之后可以作出決定，但我們確定地知道那時(shí)間將足夠長，至少對(duì)短期交易的決策起不到任何作用。