英文早讀第48篇，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。

The Usual Prediction
**常規(guī)預(yù)測(cè)”“

I am certainly not going to predict what general business or the stock market are going to do in the next year or two, since I don't have the faintest idea.
我當(dāng)然不是去預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)或者股市在接下來(lái)一年或兩年走勢(shì)，我也沒(méi)有一點(diǎn)主意。

I think you can be quite sure that over the next ten years, there are going to be a few years when the general market is plus 20% or 25% a few when it is minus on the same order, and a majority when it is in between. I haven't any notion as to the sequence in which these will occur, nor do I think it is of any great importance for the long-term investor. If you will take the first table on page 3 and shuffle the years around, the compounded result will stay the same. If the next four years are going to involve, say, a +40%, -30%, +10% and -6%, the order in which they fall is completely unimportant for our purposed as long as well all are around at the end of the four years. Over a long period of years, I think it likely that the Dow will probably produce something like 5% per year compounded from a combination of dividends and market value gain. Despite the experience of the last decade, anyone expecting substantially better than that from the general market probably faces disappointment.
我認(rèn)為你可以相當(dāng)確定在接下來(lái)數(shù)十年，會(huì)有一些年大盤(pán)上漲20%或25%，一些年下跌同樣比例，大部分年份介于兩者之間。關(guān)于他們發(fā)生的次序我沒(méi)有任何預(yù)測(cè)，我也不認(rèn)為他對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期投資者是重要的。如果你取第3頁(yè)第一張表，并且把年份打亂，復(fù)合后的結(jié)果仍然相同。如果接下來(lái)四年表現(xiàn)是+40%，-30%，+10%和-6%，他們落在什么樣的順序?qū)ξ覀兊哪康耐耆恢匾?，只要四年后我們還在。經(jīng)過(guò)長(zhǎng)期一些年，我認(rèn)為似乎道瓊斯指數(shù)將會(huì)產(chǎn)生每年復(fù)合約5%的增長(zhǎng)，整合分紅和市值增長(zhǎng)。盡管有過(guò)去十年的經(jīng)歷，任何人希望表現(xiàn)大幅優(yōu)于大盤(pán)將會(huì)面臨失望。

Our job is to pile up yearly advantages over the performance of the Dow without worrying too much about whether the absolute results in a given year are a plus or a minus. I would consider a year in which we were down 15% and the Dow declined 25% to be much superior to a year when both the partnership and the Dow advanced 20%.
我們的工作是年復(fù)一年累積優(yōu)于道瓊斯指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)而不是過(guò)多擔(dān)心在某一年份絕對(duì)結(jié)果是正是負(fù)。我更認(rèn)為我們下跌15%而道瓊斯指數(shù)下跌25%的年份比我們和道瓊斯指數(shù)都上漲20%的年份好很多。

For the reasons outlined in our method of operation, our best years reletive to the Dow are likely to be in declining or static markets. Therefore, the advantage we seek will probably come in sharply varying amounts. There are bonds to be years when we are surpassed by the Dow, but if over a long period we can average ten percentage points per year better than it, I will feel the results have been satisfactory.
因?yàn)樵谖覀冞\(yùn)作方法中概述的理由，我們最好的年份相比于道瓊斯指數(shù)似乎是下跌或穩(wěn)定的市場(chǎng)。因此，我們尋求的領(lǐng)先將可能會(huì)相差巨大。會(huì)有有限的年份被道瓊斯指數(shù)超越，但是如果經(jīng)歷較長(zhǎng)時(shí)期，我們可以平均每年領(lǐng)先道瓊斯指數(shù)10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，我對(duì)這個(gè)結(jié)果很滿(mǎn)意。

89.certainly：當(dāng)然；肯定；確定
90.shuffle：洗牌；拖著腳走；坐立不安；把（紙張等）變化位置；打亂次序