Surrender, or tactical retreat?

投降，亦或是策略性讓步？

Emmanuel Macron has tried to buy off his critics. He needs to do much more

法國(guó)總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍?jiān)噲D收買他的批評(píng)者，但需要做的更多

What sort of leader surrenders to the crowd? Any French president of the modern era, you might reply. On December 10th a queasy-looking Emmanuel Macron joined the long list of presidents who have been thrown off course by street protests. Hoping to placate the mob, he promised to increase the take-home pay of minimum-wage earners by 8%, to let workers get overtime pay and Christmas bonuses tax-free and to revoke higher social charges on modest pensions. That was his second u-turn in less than a week. On December 6th the government had cancelled the rise in fuel duty that had provoked the gilets jaunes (yellow jacket) protests. The direct cost of Mr Macron’s climb-down is about €10bn ($11bn), or around 0.4% of gdp a year. This threatens to send the French budget deficit crashing through the Maastricht limit of 3%, further setting back French hopes for deepening the euro zone. Mr Macron’s finance minister has vowed to find cuts to offset the extra spending.

什么樣的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人會(huì)向群眾投降？你可能會(huì)說，任何一個(gè)現(xiàn)代的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)。12月10號(hào)，面露難色的埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍成為因街頭抗議而改變既定政策的眾多總統(tǒng)中的一員。為能安撫這群暴民，他承諾將最低收入者們的稅后薪資提高8%，對(duì)工人的加班薪資和圣誕節(jié)獎(jiǎng)金免稅，并取消適度養(yǎng)老金的社會(huì)費(fèi)用。這是不到一周內(nèi)他的第二次政策轉(zhuǎn)向。12月6日，政府就已取消了引發(fā)黃馬甲抗議的上調(diào)燃油稅政策。馬克龍的讓步造成直接損失大約是100億歐元（110億美元），約合一年GDP的4%。這使得法國(guó)財(cái)政赤字可能突破《馬斯特里赫特條約》限制的3%，并大大推遲法國(guó)深化歐元區(qū)改革的希望。馬克龍的財(cái)務(wù)部長(zhǎng)發(fā)誓將削減開支來抵消額外的支出。

注：馬斯特里赫特條約簡(jiǎn)介

1.馬城條約（馬斯特里赫特條約，Maastricht Treaty）是為了加速歐共體各國(guó)一體化進(jìn)程，1991年12月歐共體首腦們?cè)诤商m馬斯特里赫特就政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣同盟的進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化達(dá)成了一個(gè)協(xié)議，簡(jiǎn)稱《馬約》?！恶R約》是歐洲貨幣史和國(guó)際貨幣體系發(fā)展演變史上的一個(gè)重要事件。其最終要求是在歐共體建立負(fù)責(zé)制定和執(zhí)行歐共體貨幣政策的歐洲中央銀行和發(fā)行統(tǒng)一的歐洲貨幣。

2.馬城條約的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)

（1）通貨膨脹率不得超過通膨率最低三個(gè)成員國(guó)平均值的1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；

（2）財(cái)政赤字不得超過國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的3%；

（3）公共債券不得超過GDP的60%。

To many, Mr Macron now looks like a president who can be cowed by flying bricks and sagging polls. His ability to bring about further reform is seriously, perhaps fatally, compromised. The gilets jaunes, having scented weakness, will surely press for more. A fifth successive Saturday of protest is now promised for December 15th. In a televised address Mr Macron admitted that he had been slow to acknowledge the hardships faced by ordinary people. He might have been more persuasive had he not recorded his speech in the grandest room in the Elysée palace, sitting behind a gilded desk.

對(duì)很多人來說，馬克龍現(xiàn)在看起來像是一個(gè)會(huì)被抗議和下滑的民調(diào)嚇到的總統(tǒng)。讓步和妥協(xié)嚴(yán)重地削弱了他深化改革的能力，這甚至可能是致命的。已經(jīng)嗅到虛弱氣味的黃馬甲們，肯定會(huì)施加更大的壓力。連續(xù)第五個(gè)星期六的抗議活動(dòng)現(xiàn)已定在12月15日舉行（現(xiàn)已發(fā)生）。在一次電視演講中，馬克龍承認(rèn)他對(duì)普通人們?cè)庥龅睦щy生活后知后覺。如果不是坐在愛舍麗宮最華麗房間的鍍金辦公桌后面錄制演講，他的話可能會(huì)更讓人信服。

And yet, in important ways, Mr Macron held firm. He insisted that he will not reverse an early decision to scrap France’s wealth tax. This infuriates many of the protesters, who call him the “president of the rich”. But it was right. Although Mr Macron never managed to convince voters of this, taxes on the rich had been raised to ludicrous levels by his Socialist predecessor, Fran?ois Hollande. The wealth tax was routinely dodged and raised little money, but it helped scare off mobile wealth-creators. Just as scrapping the tax signalled that France was open for business, a u-turn would have suggested it had once again shut its doors.

然而，馬克龍?jiān)谝恍┲匾矫嬉琅f立場(chǎng)堅(jiān)定。他堅(jiān)稱，他不會(huì)推翻早期取消法國(guó)財(cái)富稅的決定。這一舉措激怒了許多抗議者，他們稱他為“富人的總統(tǒng)”，但這種做法是對(duì)的。盡管馬克龍從未成功說服選民相信這一點(diǎn)，但他的社會(huì)黨前任總統(tǒng)弗朗索瓦·奧朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)已將富人的稅負(fù)提高到荒唐的水平。人們通?？梢砸?guī)避財(cái)富稅，上繳的稅收少得可憐，但它卻嚇跑了那些流動(dòng)性很強(qiáng)的財(cái)富創(chuàng)造者們。就像取消稅收意味著法國(guó)對(duì)企業(yè)開放一樣，政策的180度大轉(zhuǎn)彎也意味著法國(guó)已經(jīng)再次關(guān)上了開放的大門。

注：前任弗朗索瓦·奧朗德 特富稅French taxation Fran?ois Hollande remains intent on introducing a punishing top income-tax

https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21569068-fran%C3%A7ois-hollande-remains-intent-introducing-punishing-top-income-tax-%C3%A0-bas-les-riches

Even more important, Mr Macron gave no hint that he would delay or ditch any of his crucial labour-market overhaul. Although this is not perfect, it has stripped away some of the rules that cosset workers who already have jobs but deter companies from hiring new staff. The reform caps the size of unfair-dismissal awards and curbs the power of labour unions to impose industry-wide agreements on hours, pay and overtime. Already, these changes seem to be boosting employment. If Mr Macron had backtracked, investors would have concluded that France was as unreformable as Italy.

更重要的是，馬克龍也沒有暗示他會(huì)推遲甚至放棄任何關(guān)于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的重大改革舉措。雖然并不完美，但改革取消了一些規(guī)則，這些規(guī)則縱容那些已經(jīng)有工作但阻礙公司招聘新員工的員工們。改革限制了不公平解雇的規(guī)模以及工會(huì)在商議行業(yè)工時(shí)、薪酬和加班方面的權(quán)力。這些變化似乎正在促進(jìn)就業(yè)。但如果馬克龍放棄，投資者就會(huì)得出結(jié)論，法國(guó)和意大利一樣無力改革，不可救藥。

注：馬克龍勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)改革

http://www.cfen.com.cn/dzb/dzb/page_6/201802/t20180212_2812210.html

To have a chance of enacting the rest of his agenda, Mr Macron must persuade voters that this week’s shifts in policy were not a surrender but a tactical retreat. Much of the €10bn he is giving the left-behind is in the form of a wage subsidy for low-paid workers, which boosts their incomes without eroding the incentive to work. This is a good idea; indeed, he should have done it at the start of his presidency.

為了能使其剩余的議案得以執(zhí)行，馬克龍必須使得選民相信本周的政策的改變是戰(zhàn)術(shù)撤退，而不是屈服。他給予低收入群體的100億歐元中大部分的錢，是以工資補(bǔ)貼的形式進(jìn)行，旨在提高他們的收入，但并沒有打擊他們工作的積極性。這是一個(gè)好辦法，事實(shí)上他應(yīng)該在剛上任時(shí)就這么做。

Other changes will be less popular, but they are just as necessary. Mr Macron wants to simplify and curb the growth of France’s unsustainable pension system. Inevitably that will require workers to toil longer or receive smaller pensions than they had been expecting. Faster economic growth would ease the pain, and would be easier if the French state was smaller. The government spends 56% of gdp each year, one of the world’s highest shares. It also owns stakes in almost 100 firms, most of which ought to be fully privatised.

其他政策不會(huì)那么受歡迎，但這都是必行之舉，馬克龍想簡(jiǎn)化法國(guó)退休金體系，抑制其不可持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)。這就意味著工人工時(shí)要延長(zhǎng)，得到的退休金也會(huì)低于預(yù)期。如果法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更快，這種痛苦將能得到緩解，或者法國(guó)是個(gè)小國(guó)家，這種痛苦也更容易減輕。法國(guó)政府每年的支出占GDP的56%，是世界上支出比例最高的國(guó)家之一。法國(guó)政府擁有近100家公司的股份，這些公司大部分應(yīng)該完全私有化。

None of these reforms can be sold from behind a gilded desk. Mr Macron needs to roll up his sleeves and explain to people in plain, un-haughty terms why his plans will make France better off. If he cannot manage that, he will fail.

沒有一項(xiàng)改革是可以坐在鑲金邊的辦公桌后面就可以輕松完成的。馬克龍需要卷起袖子加油干，用平實(shí)近人的話語向民眾解釋清楚為什么他的計(jì)劃能讓法國(guó)變得更好，如果做不到這一點(diǎn)，他必將失敗。